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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Perfect.

In some ways, that was the most enjoyable event of that remarkable winter. 

Right? The collective glee that AM around 7:00 am when it became clear that it was well north of guidance and that glee building over the next few hours as it clearly came north and snow broke out all the way to just across the state line into PA was something I will not soon forget. And then, on top of it all, it was a damn fine snow event. I recall the old meterologist on WBAL TV (he's retired now, John ___) kinda throwing up his hands around 11 AM and saying it looked like seven plus inches was likely now. It was fantastic. 

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26 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

@CAPE This block is gonna be on steroids:

 

John pretty much summed up in one tweet what I couldn’t in 58 posts,  but yeah, elongate the PV, puts low heights in 50/50 region, hp builds in and roll the dice. Still need to time the branches good as always. Doesn’t garuantee anything, but like playing poker you put your chips in when ahead and should do well in the long run. I told my friend 2 weeks ago that if Philly didn’t get an inch of snow in the next 3 weeks I’d go streaking down Broad Street. I’m not there yet for a similar proclamation, but only because it’ll be a lot colder over the next few weeks and no one wants frozen nips

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Perfect.

In some ways, that was the most enjoyable event of that remarkable winter. 

I’m pretty sure that wasn’t a coastal though. I think it was a west-east low that put a stripe of snow across Ky and Va that turned just enough to get us

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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Right? The collective glee that AM around 7:00 am when it became clear that it was well north of guidance and that glee building over the next few hours as it clearly came north and snow broke out all the way to just across the state line into PA was something I will not soon forget. And then, on top of it all, it was a damn fine snow event. I recall the old meterologist on WBAL TV (he's retired now, John ___) kinda throwing up his hands around 11 AM and saying it looked like seven plus inches was likely now. It was fantastic. 

I started that day (Friday) with a 20% chance of snow on Saturday. When the 12z models ran they upgraded me to about 50%. When the 18z ran, they put our entire area under a WWA and my pops went to 70%. My county was the lone county in Va not under a WWA or WSW. By about 7 they finally put me in a WWA and the rest in a WSW. Again, only county in va that wasn’t pink. By about 11, they threw me a pity WSW. Worked out great. Had 7”. Was also very cool that the snow started here with temps in the teens.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m pretty sure that wasn’t a coastal though. I think it was a west-east low that put a stripe of snow across Ky and Va that turned just enough to get us

I just remember it look suppressed, then it looked like it might hit the coastal plain of MD and DE, then it trended NW in the last day or so and ended up a solid event for everyone. That's how it can work with some decent blocking and legit cold in place. No mixing issues except maybe in SE VA or something. I recall it being in the mid teens here from start to finish, no lulls in intensity, and ended up with 7". Loved that day.

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24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Bah. (And probably). I just recall the modeling being so south for so many days up until gametime...

It may have been a southern slider that ended up a MA slider. It definitely had some latitude gain though as it tracked eastward I believe. I don't think it was straight W-E in its track. I could be wrong.

I am sure @psuhoffman can provide the specifics.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It may have been a southern slider that ended up a MA slider. It definitely had some latitude gain though as it tracked eastward I believe. I don't think it was straight W-E in its track. I could be wrong.

I am sure @psuhoffman can provided the specifics.

It was mostly west to east with a slight latitude gain on the coast that was just enough for our area.  Still a very sharp west to east cutoff just along the Mason Dixon line.  I was down in VA with my brother for that event but up here got 4" while 10 miles south got 6" and only 15 miles north got nothing.  You can see the gradient in this image.

20100131.modis.mid.atlantic.zoom.1km.png

  Also....had a huge expanse of snowfall north to south.  

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It was mostly west to east with a slight latitude gain on the coast that was just enough for our area.  Still a very sharp west to east cutoff just along the Mason Dixon line.  I was down in VA with my brother for that event but up here got 4" while 10 miles south got 6" and only 15 miles north got nothing.  You can see the gradient in this image.

 

  Also....had a huge expanse of snowfall north to south.  

 

Rare bird these days. We sure could do with an event like this.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was mostly west to east with a slight latitude gain on the coast that was just enough for our area.  Still a very sharp west to east cutoff just along the Mason Dixon line.  I was down in VA with my brother for that event but up here got 4" while 10 miles south got 6" and only 15 miles north got nothing.  You can see the gradient in this image.

20100131.modis.mid.atlantic.zoom.1km.png

  Also....had a huge expanse of snowfall north to south.  

 

Thanks. Perfect training for the subsequent systems to know where to pummel as it turned out...

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON brings the storm back.  Tracks it up the Bay though.  Just another OP evolution 5 days out.

Strange track with the low going from the Smokies to the Tidewater of VA, then due north to Nanticoke, before shunting back off the NJ coast.  In a positively tilted trough ?  With no capture ?  Must be the Icon doing Icon-y things.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I started that day (Friday) with a 20% chance of snow on Saturday. When the 12z models ran they upgraded me to about 50%. When the 18z ran, they put our entire area under a WWA and my pops went to 70%. My county was the lone county in Va not under a WWA or WSW. By about 7 they finally put me in a WWA and the rest in a WSW. Again, only county in va that wasn’t pink. By about 11, they threw me a pity WSW. Worked out great. Had 7”. Was also very cool that the snow started here with temps in the teens.

Not being all that into weather at the time, I was going on the previous days' forecasts and ended up wrecking my truck in the surprise snow that morning!  The twin storms of the following February are what got me into following you guys in this forum and becoming a fellow weenie. 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Icon has the storm but verbatim its snow to rain. But certainly close enough

ICON transitioned to a hybrid miller a/b at the surface with clear characteristics of both with a definite southern draw before a move into the tenn Valley, triple point, then transfer off Carolina coast. 

When was the last pure Miller A? Serious question, we were discussing in another forum and nobody had a clear answer. Seems most are B or hybrid. 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON transitioned to a hybrid miller a/b at the surface with clear characteristics of both with a definite southern draw before a move into the tenn Valley, triple point, then transfer off Carolina coast. 

When was the last pure Miller A? Serious question, we were discussing in another forum and nobody had a clear answer. Seems most are B or hybrid. 

To hit our region? Maybe Feb 12-14 2014?? At least I think but it couldve been hybrid. 

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14 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

To hit our region? Maybe Feb 12-14 2014?? At least I think but it couldve been hybrid. 

That looks like a Miller A, good call. Those can transfer or redevelop but im pretty certain the defining characteristic is it doesn't really enter the Midwest, OV, Tenn Valley to transfer. That storm u mentioned basically hugged the FL panhandle then jumped off the GA coast. So I would classify that as a straight Miller A and yeah, probably the last true one we've had. Rare for sure.

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