aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, H2O said: where does that one come from? From the Douche region 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro has a gradient flow with a lot of potential for overrunning events. Models don't always see them until a couple days in advance. Euro attempts one Tuesday and one Friday,. These are the kind of events that pop out of nowhere in good patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--my worst weather besides heat and humidity is bitter cold and dry. As i get older...i think prefer the heat lol. But a super cold snow...yea ill take that. i only care about snow. He lives beside the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wentz just canceled the back half of February Haha sorry guys lol. There’s plenty of opportunities before that it just seems this winter the big ones happen at the end of the pattern as -AO relaxes. The fun part is we can rebuilding the -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 WB EPS for weekend 12Z (more spread) compared to 0Z, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting, look out West as well. Yeah that’s the Rex block under the -EPO. With a full finished retrograding block. Verbatim the euro has a wave down south there pressed under the NS tpv, but at this range not worried about details. Once that big ULL over lakes would move east if that split flow is modeled right and spacing is good. It’s game on. It’s exactly how blizzard of 96 formed. does this map look familiar to anyone?? 4-5 days before the blizzard of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did nobody mention the 6z para has the weekend storm? More of a OH Valley runner, so thump to drizzle and dry slot. I noticed that. I also noticed that every time you WANT to see the para, it’s MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ninja'd. But yeah. It would be some light snow through the area verbatim. Pretty wild progression with 2 lows sliding east that close together. You can definitely see when looking at the 0z suite from last night that the potential is there at 500mb and h5 for something to happen this weekend. However, the latest CMC shows you exactly how things could fall apart before they ever get started. Gonna be interesting to see how models handle this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Big cold is great immediately after or before a storm to keep snow around or maximize potential of a storm. Would like a storm with a temp in the 20s. Tired of the past few years of marginal temps, especially in daylight, where half of the precip melts on contact 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah that’s the Rex block under the -EPO. With a full finished retrograding block. Verbatim the euro has a wave down south there pressed under the NS tpv, but at this range not worried about details. Once that big ULL over lakes would move east if that split flow is modeled right and spacing is good. It’s game on. It’s exactly how blizzard of 96 formed. does this map look familiar to anyone?? 4-5 days before the blizzard of 96 Yeah it was a big Ice storm in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wentz just canceled the back half of February I would be fine with that as long as we get blasted in the first half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah that’s the Rex block under the -EPO. With a full finished retrograding block. Verbatim the euro has a wave down south there pressed under the NS tpv, but at this range not worried about details. Once that big ULL over lakes would move east if that split flow is modeled right and spacing is good. It’s game on. It’s exactly how blizzard of 96 formed. does this map look familiar to anyone?? 4-5 days before the blizzard of 96 Did you see the almost 1060 High pressure system above Montana at 240 hours in the Euro HI - Res ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Let's go for several chances the next few weeks and then prepare for a March '93 style triple phaser in March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wentz just canceled the back half of February spring starts around that time here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, TowsonWeather said: 1. Agree. 2. Caveat: if you start wringing your hands and angsting about suppression again I'm gonna cut you. Lol this isn’t the same setup. All about where the front sets up and how the streams interact. The flow to our northeast isn’t a factor as much. Suppression did have a hand in this last storm just not the way people think of it. The system to our west started to deamplify as it hit the compressed flow to the northeast. That flow then relaxed but it took a tiny bit too long to amplify again. We got stuck in the dead zone. I think had the trough amplified straight to the coast the secondary would have captured off the VA capes v NJ. That’s all the difference to us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 57 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z is ages ago. 12z brokedown like a 1980s oldsmobile Omg I had a delta 88 Oldsmobile in college and it died on the side of the road near Johnstown when we took a road trip to visit the historic flood markers from PSU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Omg I had a delta 88 Oldsmobile in college and it died on the side of the road near Johnstown when we took a road trip to visit the historic flood markers from PSU. Jealous you’ve been! Studied the flood thoroughly while a undergrad...at PSU . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: Did you see the almost 1060 High pressure system above Montana at 240 hours in the Euro HI - Res ? Yes here is eps at same time showing that HP starting to build in. So basically what I’d hope would unfold here is you can see hints of a split flow on the west coast. As the ULL around the lakes head east into 50/50 region it gives room for the Hp to build behind it. Then you have cold airmass in place for whatever comes out west underneath the Rex block. I can’t explain it as well as psu or others but def keep an eye on this time frame. Until then there def a few waves we could score a modest event out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Got a feeling the Euro is gearing up for another storm around D10. I'll head over to that thread if it does I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro has a gradient flow with a lot of potential for overrunning events. Models don't always see them until a couple days in advance. Euro attempts one Tuesday and one Friday,. These are the kind of events that pop out of nowhere in good patterns.Like 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's go for several chances the next few weeks and then prepare for a March '93 style triple phaser in March. As long as it tracks 75-100 miles further east, I am down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yes here is eps at same time showing that HP starting to build in. So basically what I’d hope would unfold here is you can see hints of a split flow on the west coast. As the ULL around the lakes head east into 50/50 region it gives room for the Hp to build behind it. Then you have cold airmass in place for whatever comes out west underneath the Rex block. I can’t explain it as well as psu or others but def keep an eye on this time frame. Until then there def a few waves we could score a modest event out of. I like 2/10 to 2/18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: No one wants cold and dry, but I would love the rare snowstorm followed by a shot of true Arctic air. Not like it would last long around here, but I love a few mornings around zero with snow cover. Its awesome. Haven't had that since like 2014 or 15 maybe. Not true. I love cold and dry. Love taking hikes and checking to see how frozen the little bodies of water around here are during/after an extended bitter cold stretch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ. Sunday would be great but I personally don't think it'll happen. I'm way more interested in the mid-month period for the reasons you state above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ. Yep, I am more confident that sometime around the tenth of Feb that we get a more classic storm. Won't need much luck with this pattern: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Steve25 said: Not true. I love cold and dry. Love taking hikes and checking to see how frozen the little bodies of water around here are during/after an extended bitter cold stretch. I mean I don't hate it either, but most here do. I would much rather have it with a few inches of snow otg. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 We have this patern going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Not true. I love cold and dry. Love taking hikes and checking to see how frozen the little bodies of water around here are during/after an extended bitter cold stretch. Root for the cold for 2 reasons- to get snow and to keep the snow on the ground after it snows. Nothing better than a big storm followed by cold temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's go for several chances the next few weeks and then prepare for a March '93 style triple phaser in March. I'm good with that, as long as it happens while I'm in town...then we go to spring shortly thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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