cbmclean Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 1031 hp at 159. Definitely front end material Good call. The primary hangs on a tad too long for your area and probably even mine. Extrapolating, I am sure it would have been a great run for interior New England . H5 track is just a bit too far north. But we do get a little bit of blue so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Gfs gonna south.less se ridge. More confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs gonna south.less se ridge. More confluence Although it is taking quite a while to eject out of the SW.. let's see if the confluence offsets that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Suppressed south...no precip north of Ric ...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: I like Popeyes apple pie too. It’s insanely good for a fast food joint. they had beignets last week which were filled with nutella.....really good as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 And GFS just crushed the wave south due to the crushing confluence looks like... 180 looked fine lol... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Falls apart again. Too south lol and still no frookin blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Suppressed south...no precip north of Ric ...interesting almost looked like it got sheared apart after 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 And GFS just crushed the wave south due to the crushing confluence looks like... 180 looked fine lol... for nowThis is getting old. Instead of adjusting to give us snow. It bypasses us and gets crushed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 So it takes the cutter option of the table and gives us a suppressed pos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: almost looked like it got sheared apart after 180? Look at the height lines....it’s a shredder north of us and has no room to amplify. 18z and 0z below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I don't think para even has a storm. Euro icon vs America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Don’t worry, the next wave is a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Don’t worry, the next wave is a cutter. Give it a few days. It will be a deep south storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Don’t worry, the next wave is a cutter. Ggem says this storm will miss us to the south https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011500&fh=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Ggem says this storm will miss us to the south https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011500&fh=228 Given where the block is by then...I would worry more about suppressed then a cutter like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Given where the block is by then...I would worry more about suppressed then a cutter like the GFS shows. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Given where the block is by then...I would worry more about suppressed then a cutter like the GFS shows. Seems like the only way to get precip up here is by a cutter smh which is not likely. Otherwise we're gonna be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Don’t worry, the next wave is a cutter. Give it a few days. It will be a deep south storm Every wave we are tracking is still 7+ days away... a range where there will be significant changes on every op run. But you are tracking them like every little detail on the run is live or die as if its 24 hours away. That very first wave around the 22nd is maybe a day or so away from getting to a range where we might start to get some clarity. But I was never that optimistic on that one anyways. But you would do better to let the full run's come in and then just get a sense for overall trends based on the ensembles rather then getting twisted around by the flip flops of each op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Seems like the only way to get precip up here is by a cutter smh which is not likely. Otherwise we're gonna be dry I get the frustration...but we have had some hits mixed in lately...the euro snowed on us like 4 straight runs actually. The GFS and para had a few runs with a hit day 10-15 and the ICON just had some snow. We just have not had any consistency with one of these waves yet...guidance is all over shotgun style on how they play out. I still think the progression favors a further south track after the wave on the 22nd, if there even is a wave on the 22nd. It's possible the southern wave shears out and the northern wave stays to our north...and its not much of anything. That is one option because there is so much ridging in front...but then with a sudden wall in the way from the blocking. If you really want to look for something "exciting" I have noticed the trough in the west continues to retrograde, in response to the pac ridge retrogression...and by around day 15 its SOOOOO close to pulling back enough to really dump a huge trough into the east under the block. And this time because there is a ridge in the WPO not a long trough across the whole north pacific...there wouldn't be a raging pac jet blasting into north america. Imagine...a poleward ridge west of alaska to get cold into N America...then a trough off the west coast to get a PNA ridge...then huge trough under the block in the east...going into February. Might as well dream big right? This crap has to end sometime...why not end with a bang. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Bojangles are by FAR the best biscuits. And, to make that relevant to this thread, you can get them all over North Carolina, making your snow chase there tasty... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 well...those that wanted cold check out the Para. Not a drop or flake of any precip after tomorrow...dry as a bone for 15 days...but damn cold lol. WAY too much of a good thing. Huge block but develops a TPV vortex just to our northeast under the block and it sits there forever just squashing everything. Nothing even comes close...not even NC...its too suppressed for anything to get east of the MS. Now that would be an epic way to fail after we couldn't buy any cold air the first 6 weeks of winter...to waste a block because its too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks like Euro caves to GFS wrt energy in the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like Euro caves to GFS wrt energy in the sw Looks like it kicks it out at 168... decent confluence ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Lol suppressed... barely any precip makes it to even EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 We just can't win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS.... not bad but all is still 10 plus days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We just can't win There is kinda a catch 22 with that first wave. There isn’t much cold in front. So if it’s not suppressed and it pumps any ridge and rides the boundary it goes north of us. But if it is suppressed it gets squashed. Not saying it can’t be a hit but it’s a very delicate balance because there isn’t enough cold in place ahead of the wave. This isn’t an amplifying coastal type setup. For a west to east boundary wave to work it’s much easier with good cold in front. Let’s see what the eps has to say about the 10-15 period. 12z eps liked it and gefs really hit that time 18z and again 0z. Gefs 5 day mean day 10-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS.... not bad but all is still 10 plus days out. I'll take a 13 or 23 and call it a winter, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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