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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Sucks for us here yet AGAIN according to the Euro . 

Actually I rather go frigid and miss all the modeled snow with a threat of suppression.  

Same areas that got screwed the last three days get screwed again. 

I mean you should be kinda used to it...its tough for the coast to get snow...Has to be perfect mix between supressed and amped, even tougher than my area or the metros lol

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Lately, the NAO state in February lasts through March. 

1A.png

1B.png

2A.png

2B.png

This one is Stratosphere warming induced though, and the correlation at +60days is about 0.03, AO is 0.05

Also, my NAO index forecast N Atlantic SSTs for the Winter was -0.1, so a much more negative March could be pretty drastic difference. 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I mean you should be kinda used to it...its tough for the coast to get snow...Has to be perfect mix between supressed and amped, even tougher than my area or the metros lol

Its prime climo, I expect better.

Up North has a better climo, we all know that,  but honestly look at some of those totals from the last storm. . 

I guess I am also frustrated by this last storm,  was forecasted to get 10 inches and only received 4 inches.    

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Look how cold previous Euro runs were after the sunday storm.  On today's run its totally different. That could lend to helping the Wednesday storm work out.

That's what I was thinking. Certainly not frigid for us but there's still cold air to tap, basically right nearby. Of course we'd be playing with fire, but it could boast well.

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20 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

At this point you HAVE to be just trolling...

That's the more generous of the two explanations, anyway.

He has to be. 

I am so tired of revisionist history around here. The Euro locked onto the possibility of a long duration east coast storm of significance around last Tuesday, six days before the storm. The GFS was stubborn in NOT supporting a storm until the later on Thursday runs. 

People (ahem, at least a red tagger anyway) point to the max being to our north as some evidence that the Euro is shit, rather than focusing on the Euro having been early and correct about the period of storminess and the potential impact somewhere on the east coast.

All of which is to say, the Euro being stubborn in seeing a storm for the east coast at these leads for the weekend is the camp I would rather be in, than in the GFS camp...

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