nj2va Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6z GFS is active as it has multiple short waves riding along the base of the 500 trough. Should be busy tracking times ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: 6z GFS is active as it has multiple short waves riding along the base of the 500 trough. Should be busy tracking times ahead. Heck Yea! Storms chances just about every other day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Heck Yea! Storms chances just about every other day. Plus vodka cold air getting stuck under a -4 to -5SD block. The polar vortex is finally being displaced over our side of the globe, over most of Canada except the far western part. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 You love to see this. If we can score before that arctic blast comes in.. the snow might never melt. Regardless of whether or not snow is observed, an outbreak of Arctic air will rush across the region early next week. Dangerously low wind chill temperatures would be likely in this scenario on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 15 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Does someone have the EPS teleconnection indices going forward? Thank you in advance. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 @psuhoffman thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 06z EPS has two much more coherent clusters of lows next weekend. One is right on the coast, with individual lows showing up in the Delaware bay and down to NC/VA. The other cluster is around Lake Erie by OH and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO for weekend Looks like another Miller B? Don't put yourself thru it again. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: HA event in mid-February? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: @psuhoffman thoughts? Here is mine. These HL blocking patterns usually require some time and patience. Some of us have done better than others with the latter lol. We are finally seeing it begin to payoff now. Over the next 10 days we should see multiple storm chances with legit cold air in place. The pattern doesn't get much better than what we now see depicted on guidance- well maybe if it were a Nino. And we are in our prime climo window for cold and snow. The bar should be pretty high. If we fail here, it will probably be because of pure bad luck. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Plus vodka cold air getting stuck under a -4 to -5SD block. The polar vortex is finally being displaced over our side of the globe, over most of Canada except the far western part. Careful. Unless u can get lobes of the PV or the entire PV phasing that can spell a dry and cold period. But as we saw as recently as the past few days, our chances will go up when the blocking relaxes. Again, thats assuming the PV doesn't play into our storm threats. I like the chances going forward for sure. We aren't even close to being done tracking. The warm Nina Feb outlooks certainly won't verify over the next 10 days at least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Careful. Unless u can get lobes of the PV or the entire PV phasing that can spell a dry and cold period. But as we saw as recently as the past few days, our chances will go up when the blocking relaxes. Again, thats assuming the PV doesn't play into our storm threats. I like the chances going forward for sure. We aren't even close to being done tracking. The warm Nina Feb outlooks certainly won't verify over the next 10 days at least. I'm guessing you didn't get 30" which is why you are in here crapping on the threats....it's ok if I'm wrong just speculating. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like another Miller B? Don't put yourself thru it again. This current storm has been awesome for us. Probably getting close to 6 inches storm total just outside DC and its breezy with pure fluff falling. I am absolutely putting myself through this again lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Here is mine. These HL blocking patterns usually require some time and patience. Some of us have done better than others with the latter lol. We are finally seeing it begin to payoff now. Over the next 10 days we should see multiple storm chances with legit cold air in place. The pattern doesn't get much better than what we now see depicted on guidance- well maybe if it were a Nino. And we are in our prime climo window for cold and snow. The bar should be pretty high. If we fail here, it will probably be because of pure bad luck. Ralph just said to be careful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 BAMWX gets a poor grade . Severe cold on the way. Coldest yet. This supports LOWER LATITUDE blizzard ( 38 degrees North to 40.5 North) in upcoming pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ralph just said to be careful lol I am very familiar with failure modes over here. There are plenty. This type of pattern historically provides the best outcomes for the coastal plain, so I will always take my chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm guessing you didn't get 30" which is why you are in here crapping on the threats....it's ok if I'm wrong just speculating. Wrong (wrt crapping on the threat) Many here seem happy with the storm currently pulling away....I haven't been in here. Certainly not dismissing the threat, just suggesting if either of our areas get bullseyed with another Miller B with 4 days+ lead time we should be realistic and keep expectations in check knowing Miller b track history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wrong (wrt crapping on the threat) Many here seem happy with the storm currently pulling away....I haven't been in here. Certainly not dismissing the threat, just suggesting if either of our areas get bullseyed with another Miller B with 4 days+ lead time we should be realistic and keep expectations in check knowing Miller b track history. I hear ya....still has a funny smell to it but it's solid advice 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I hear ya....still has a funny smell to it but it's solid advice I just heard from a friend that this actually smells more of a Miller A, so perhaps that's the aroma you're catching. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Both maps are 10:1 SRs... there is no Kuchera for the control FYI This weekend After the 12th-14th storm moves through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Comparison Hm..... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, jlh said: it's an L lol Ah dang it...here I am loud and wrong, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like another Miller B? Don't put yourself thru it again. Have you looked at the run? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Nice moisture orientation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm guessing you didn't get 30" which is why you are in here crapping on the threats....it's ok if I'm wrong just speculating. Careful! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Hey all! I storm chased up to Dover NJ. Finally got lucky, band stalled over this region all afternoon. Total anywhere from 24-28”, and I’m sure there is isolated 30 spots. Just wanted to see 2 feet somewhere this year and it happened, the rest is gravy. anywhere, onto the LR Sunday, the issue with this potential event is that the wave is just an extension of the tpv. This unfortunately could allow HP to slide off the EC and put a low in the lakes. This could still work if the two vorts dive farther SE & with the block this could very well happen. I am highly interested in the day 10-15 time frame. We usually cash as things break down or relax a bit. On this map you can see the block has retrograded. This has allowed a huge 50/50 ULL to form. There’s bit of a split flow out west. What would be important here is if the block retrograded more southwest than due west. If the NS cooperates this has big time potential. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 37 minutes ago, mattie g said: Have you looked at the run? I was today years old when I learned that Miller B came from the gulf. 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I was today years old when I learned that Miller B came from the gulf. Yeah yeah I looked quickly at the surface and saw weakness near the GL, triple point, and a storm near Hatteras and it looked like a miller b redeveloping. Hopefully we can keep the Miller a signal and this doesn't go hybrid with later coastal development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 58 minutes ago, frd said: Nice moisture orientation. Depends on where you live. I’d prefer it rotated about 75° counterclockwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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