CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 45 minutes ago, nj2va said: Hello signal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Tasty animation ! That retro Greenland block is sweet, and the evolution is looking to deliver two potential threats. The end of the 7 day period, and even going out beyond that as well. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there? Prob not. Next week and beyond has a much better setup to deal with. Miller A’s baby! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Para is much closer to a decent outcome next weekend. Late bloomer verbatim...storm signal growing. Trend has been in our favor the last 24-48 as far as overall setup in concerned. Let’s see how things evolve once tonight’s biggie is out of the way. 500mb setup indicates we have a pretty decent shot at cyclogenesis off the Atlantic coast late next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Quasievil said: After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there? At least it appears we will have some legit cold to work with, and all of us on the coastal plain know that is the number one ingredient for snow. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: At least it appears we will have some legit cold to work with, and all of us on the coastal plain know that is the number one ingredient for snow. For the second threat mid-next week, for sure . The first potential threat next weekend isn’t so cut and dry. It’ll be in the low to mid 40 Thursday through Saturday. Huge cold shot comes overnight Sunday. Forecasted overnight low is 5 degrees in Baltimore city with a high of 19 on Monday. Let’s gets some classic Gulf of Mexico overrunning thrown up here next week and were in business. That snow where .5 of QPF gets you 10”. Mmmm, yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Pretty nice for a 24hr signal. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: I mean... if you're not honking with these LR maps, you're in the wrong business: 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: For the second threat mid-next week, for sure . The first potential threat next weekend isn’t so cut and dry. It’ll be in the low to mid 40 Thursday through Saturday. Huge cold shot comes overnight Sunday. Forecasted overnight low is 5 degrees in Baltimore city with a high of 19 on Monday. Let’s gets some classic Gulf of Mexico overrunning thrown up here next week and were in business. That snow where .5 of QPF gets you 10”. Mmmm, yes please. Initial cold front comes through on Friday, and at least on the Euro, Sat looks pretty damn cold. Have to see exactly how it plays out and what the timing is, but this does not appear to be situation where we are trying to score with multiple days of 40s and 50s leading in, and, dat block doe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Pure model porn Told ya that southeast ridge would be suppressed if the -epo/NAO combo was real. It’s REALLY hard for us to be warm with that combo in February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Are Miller A’s usually the storms better at covering the whole state in knee-deep tasty snow? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, jayyy said: For the second threat mid-next week, for sure . The first potential threat next weekend isn’t so cut and dry. It’ll be in the low to mid 40 Thursday through Saturday. Huge cold shot comes overnight Sunday. Forecasted overnight low is 5 degrees in Baltimore city with a high of 19 on Monday. Let’s gets some classic Gulf of Mexico overrunning thrown up here next week and were in business. That snow where .5 of QPF gets you 10”. Mmmm, yes please. I will do a summersault if we can ever get to the point where we are talking about cold powder and ratios of 15 to 1 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Are Miller A’s usually the storms better at covering the whole state in knee-deep tasty snow? Miller A's are at least more predictable, and deliver the goods way more often than Miller B s . Miller Bs normally favor areas North of us. Like this storm. Miller A totals vary depending on exact track, strength of the low, and other factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Hello signal. @psuhoffman dark blue baby, dark blue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: We do backloaded way better almost always anyway. That's just climo, esp for the coastal plain. A -AO/NAO in Dec may produce, but if it persists, by late Jan into early March it is often money. I can be impatient, but realistic, and I know a pattern like this will usually pay off here. It’s provably becoming true even more so with warmer ocean SSTs. We need those to cool to stop flooding the mid latitudes with warmth. But it certainly happened in the past also. 1958 and 1960 has blocking all winter but it wasn’t until February/March that we cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Tasty animation ! That retro Greenland block is sweet, and the evolution is looking to deliver two potential threats. The end of the 7 day period, and even going out beyond that as well. The NAO is likely to reload again after that imo. The TPV is still a weak POS so the next wave break will just start the whole cycle again. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: does not appear to be situation where we are trying to score with multiple days of 40s and 50s leading in, and, dat block doe. A big difference - colder Western Canada and all this snow cover. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 BTW, pretty sure MJO goes phase 8 at this same time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Quasievil said: After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there? 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Are Miller A’s usually the storms better at covering the whole state in knee-deep tasty snow? If we get a nice "clean" Miller A or Miller A hybrid then we stand a better shot at a nice, simple snowfall for everyone that can probably be sniffed our 2-3 days in advance with more reasonable accuracy. Miller B's are torture and we're lucky the upper level energy saved a lot of people. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 hours ago, psurulz said: Wow...hopefully this is a good sign seeing that the threat is still a week away. No kidding, someone is feeling a bit bullish. I don't think NWS Wakefield even considers these until 3 days out lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Quasievil said: After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there? Looking better than most of what's been thrown at is the past few seasons, when I am getting excited over an inch, you know it's been rough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 If this is what the rest of winter looks like Gefs extended euro weeklies 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 52 minutes ago, jlh said: Looking better than most of what's been thrown at is the past few seasons, when I am getting excited over an inch, you know it's been rough lol. Now wait a minute we can't have a Ji AND and Jih in here too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Ji and Jih...Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 hours ago, csnavywx said: Notable shift in the GEFS mean and members towards the Euro on the 18Z run. Always nice to see you posting more... thank you for dropping the snow weenie knowledge today lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Had 3.5 yesterday, compacted down to 2 and back up to 3.25 Overall the models and most forecasters missed this for DC proper. Not so close by but that is the most frequent finish to Bs. Not a bust and there have been several awful painful historic ones. Not a hit either. This seems to start reversal of our bad winter pattern and we might not get above 25 by Sun and Mon Might wanna put this in the other thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If this is what the rest of winter looks like Gefs extended euro weeklies Drooling over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts