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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, GATECH said:

Yep, when was the last legit on 1993?  Screw everything else, I am only hunting big dogs now...

I believe so. 

I believe to get a triple phaser you need intense blocking to combine in dropping and displacing the Arctic jet and polar jets along with the southern jet in perfect harmony. .   

Also, intense baroclinic energy and very cold temps.  Regardless, it appears a powerful storm in the East is possible. 

 

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Looks like all major deterministic globals (GFS, CMC, Euro) have that storm around Wednesday of next week (Feb. 10), to varying degrees.  They all originate from the same general area (around the Gulf, or near TX/LA).  The big difference this time is that it doesn't look like we'll be relying upon some kind of lucky or complicated coastal transfer.  Rather, a storm attacking very cold air that will be in place.  Even the extreme solution of the Euro, which takes a bomb up through the Bay, the DC area looks like it's below freezing (changes to sleet or some kind of mix, but who cares about those details right now?).  I haven't seen the ensembles yet, but I would wager they look quite interesting.

ETA:  My bad (sorry!), the bomb storm that goes up through the Bay on the Euro is later this weekend, not the thing next Wednesday.  But everything else is right...all models show something middle of next week.

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Weird.  This frame looks totally different on pivotal.  There's no precip down by us

You saw that too (on Pivotal)?  It did look a little odd, that level of discrepancy.  I suppose it's whatever algorithm they use for generating that plot, but that's a big difference and I otherwise can't think why it would be so.  But I suppose those details don't really matter...the Euro is the only one (I think?) that blows up the system later this weekend like that; CMC and GFS have a different evolution.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just saw the Euro.  Surprised this thread aint' poppin more.   Not too worried about that Bay hugger for now.  We got storms and storms to track.   February should be fun.  Hopefully we can make up from yesterday's disaster.

My thought that our window might end for 7-10 days after this storm seems dead wrong.

With respect to popping ... You'd make a fine closer in baseball.  Some of us require more time to recover after being ghosted at the altar.  Others live north of us.  Off to the other forum, flurries (and not just a stray flurry or two) have commenced in College Park

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just saw the Euro.  Surprised this thread aint' poppin more.   Not too worried about that Bay hugger for now.  We got storms and storms to track.   February should be fun.  Hopefully we can make up from yesterday's disaster.

I think a lot of folks are focused on wishing today's radar returns south. Me? I know where I stand with them, so I need to refocus on future potential. We really need to make the next couple weeks count so we can happily fade into spring.

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Just now, mattie g said:

I think a lot of folks are focused on wishing today's radar returns south. Me? I know where I stand with them, so I need to refocus on future potential. We really need to make the next couple weeks count so we can happily fade into spring.

It’s snowing pretty good here.  It’s not deathband but keeping the ice fresh.  31.  No complaints 

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I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season. 

Well then hopefully that means things aren't at a snow climo armageddon just yet :)

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