Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Weenie AF in just the mid-range.

Chill...I suggest you log out at about 4 pm tomorrow, then come back when it seems like something could be on the table, whether that’s this coming weekend or after.

I’m looking out for your own best interests.

No worries g man. I'm outta here tonight when I fall asleep. It's a lock. If the hook gets set this week, my limited posting will be late at night or before 8am. I'll keep my current avatar because it looks to be appropriate for a while and easy to spot. 

Psu, cape, matt, and all the other longtimers can do the heavy lifting until then. Make sure they dont build a SER or -PNA while I'm gone tho

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Great we are about to get attacked by a big blue sperm. Nothing good can come of that

You havent lived until someone you dont like very much is attacked by blue sperm. 

[Lowershoresadness]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Great we are about to get attacked by a big blue sperm. Nothing good can come of that

hopefully it will fertilize a snowstorm

[Bob Chill]

43 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

hopefully it will fertilize a snowstorm

Cloud seeding is a real thing. Post checks out

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No worries g man. I'm outta here tonight when I fall asleep. It's a lock. If the hook gets set this week, my limited posting will be late at night or before 8am. I'll keep my current avatar because it looks to be appropriate for a while and easy to spot. 

Psu, cape, matt, and all the other longtimers can do the heavy lifting until then. Make sure they dont build a SER or -PNA while I'm gone tho

Maybe the mods can just make a whole new category of account type just for you. "THE LEGEND" sort of like a red tagger without being degreed in meteorology. 

[ravensrule]

Welcome back @Bob Chill. I missed you more than i miss sex. I hope to you see you again for next Sunday’s storm. It’s no fun around here without you. 

[blueberryfaygo]

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Welcome back @Bob Chill. I missed you more than i miss sex. I hope to you see you again for next Sunday’s storm. It’s no fun around here without you. 

hmmmm..

[frd]

56 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

There's a little somethin' somethin', but you know D7 means. It's there 

Lets see if the EPS moves the axis of heavier snows South in time and also narrows down the area. Nothing exciting here just yet. 

 

[midatlanticweather]

No doubt, it was great hearing from you @Bob Chill. You have been missed, now this winter better bring you back sooner than later!

 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

hmmmm..

Nah, don't overthink it. We've been DM'ing deck pics to each other for years. That's all. Perfectly innocent and our wives dgaf. 

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe the mods can just make a whole new category of account type just for you. "THE LEGEND" sort of like a red tagger without being degreed in meteorology. 

Nah, you peeps def flatter me and I appreciate it but honestly, anyone can do what I do. I'm serious too. But I don't recommend it to anyone. The amount of time I've wasted learning fine details and feverishly tracking for minimal returns is REALLY  f'n dumb and wasteful. I wouldnt recommend it to anyone. Even people I dont like

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, you peeps def flatter me and I appreciate it but honestly, anyone can do what I do. I'm serious too. But I don't recommend it to anyone. The amount of time I've wasted learning fine details and feverishly tracking for minimal returns is REALLY  f'n dumb and wasteful. I wouldnt recommend it to anyone. Even people I dont like

THIS. A great post with the honest truth around parts of our hobby that as someone not only looking to be knowledgeable but also an enthusiast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Truly an odd breed. Snowing outside in real time and we're looking at the long range 

Well today has been a bit underwhelming, so...it makes sense, lol

[Kmlwx]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, you peeps def flatter me and I appreciate it but honestly, anyone can do what I do. I'm serious too. But I don't recommend it to anyone. The amount of time I've wasted learning fine details and feverishly tracking for minimal returns is REALLY  f'n dumb and wasteful. I wouldnt recommend it to anyone. Even people I dont like

I have the snow bible book set...and I just cannot sit myself down to learn the nuances. That's why I'm mostly absent in the mid/long range threads and pattern threads until it turns into obs. 

[clskinsfan]

Didnt see it mentioned but the CMC is on board as well for next weekend. 

[BristowWx]

34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Didnt see it mentioned but the CMC is on board as well for next weekend. 

CMC at the end of the run looked like something wicked was coming this way.  Maybe we get another event to track 

[frd]

41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Didnt see it mentioned but the CMC is on board as well for next weekend. 

link ? 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Could be a record -AO start to Winter through February, love to see how this evolves 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I have the snow bible book set...and I just cannot sit myself down to learn the nuances. That's why I'm mostly absent in the mid/long range threads and pattern threads until it turns into obs. 

I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically.  Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? 

I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate).

I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! 

 Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. 

So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics.  This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways?

Anyways, I think  this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. 

Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool. 

[Kmlwx]

@Bob Chill - I'm not even being sarcastic...that was beautiful. Love the sandwich analogies.

[MDstorm]

Great post, Chill.  Of course, now you have made me hungry for  a sandwich. 

[stormtracker]

I'm already ready to start tracking the next one.  I hate the post storm blues, so this would be a perfect booster shot

[stormtracker]

Well 18z GFS is on board for something next weekend.  Not like the EUro of course, but it's interesting

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm already ready to start tracking the next one.  I hate the post storm blues, so this would be a perfect booster shot

Hell, this is close enough that it can be in the 3-7 day thread. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm already ready to start tracking the next one.  I hate the post storm blues, so this would be a perfect booster shot

So far it looks like as long as some idiot doesnt put a piece of american cheese on a pastrami sandwhich, we eatin clubs mang

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well 18z GFS is on board for something next weekend.  Not like the EUro of course, but it's interesting

Is this the system that the other day looked like a cutter followed by very cold?  Or something else.  I've only lightly followed anything outside today's event until now, really.  But did notice potential interesting stuff around that time next weekend or so.

[HighStakes]

GFS is just a little chilly for next Monday at 12z. It has a northern MD at -3 degrees and -28 at 850 with a 492 thickness. Fun to look at. 

[Anyweather]

35 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Is this the system that the other day looked like a cutter followed by very cold?  Or something else.  I've only lightly followed anything outside today's event until now, really.  But did notice potential interesting stuff around that time next weekend or so.

This is the one after the cutter. 

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically.  Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? 

I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate).

I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! 

 Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. 

So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics.  This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways?

Anyways, I think  this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. 

Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool. 

This is exactly how I’ve learned. I went to met school for 2.5 years but I feel like learning “backwards” goes a long way in this field. You start looking at H5, H7 eventually you know what’s “good”  and what’s “not”. Like today’s euro I looked at H5 and knew it was a huge east coast snowstorm. I really didn’t even have to look at surface or precip map. You start seeing the nuances and little things. I have trouble verbalizing what I’m seeing sometimes with met language, but if you sat here with me during a model run and I could talk to you you’d see the difference with me. I am far from a met compared to bob, psu and others, but yeah chill’s post was awesome.

[Maestrobjwa]

Thanks for that post @Bob Chill. I think your learning method explains how non-mets can still gain a lot of knowledge in weather. Sounds like you are a more visual person, no? (i.e. your sandwich analogy, lol) I tend to be when it comes to learning things (auditory learning as well)...but if you can learn weather by "seeing" per se...that gives me some confidence that I can as well!