Dabuckeyes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I was worried about what to do with myself after this storm. Glad to have more to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Both Euro and GFS agree on the bitter cold shot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Weenie AF in just the mid-range. Chill...I suggest you log out at about 4 pm tomorrow, then come back when it seems like something could be on the table, whether that’s this coming weekend or after. I’m looking out for your own best interests. 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems counter intuitive but with an AO prog'd to go that negative, if the NAO keeps diving amwx will need a new weenie subforum for the FL panhandle. Blocking itself doesnt produce storms obviously but every nosedive and relaxation provides a window for a sig storm. Interesting to see just how cold guidance is hinting at now. TPV being very displaced in Feb is productive in our region. You dont have to go far back in history to confirm this idea. Just for giggles as I've literally have only briefly scanned lr guidance off and on all winter so far, and I'm not in tune like the heavy lifters... but... I do see potential for a general idea something like this: Not much of a chance for a big clean storm storm during the period leading into and shortly after the arctic front but some sort of west track cad, modest trailing wave/anafront, or clipper style event would be the most probable way to score something quickly. Unless it backs way off in depth, cold shots like this can really dry things out all over the eastern half of the conus so there could be boring period before the next big chance window opens. Snow could come easy regardless of track too. Need the NS to keep dropping shortwaves relatively close together to maximize the chances and avoid ZR to rain after an extended cold period. No idea whatsoever how active the NS will be but persistance argues against any extended lull in precip/storm chances. IMO- we're only getting started today. I'm expecting a compressed active winter period along the east coast in general thru the majority of Feb. Nothing specific on guidance telling me this. Just my personal experience. This doesnt translate into multiple stacked up events here. It could but not something worth discussing today. This is the first time I'm interested in the LR all season. But I'm busy AF so I'll let you guys sweat the details until something sets the hook in the mid/short range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Amped said: 967 mb 507 DM triple phaser. I swear I’ve seen “Triple Phaser” on a Bingo card once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Incoming on Euro! Will PSU worry about suppression though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Another storm brewing day 9/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Will PSU worry about suppression though? 27 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Incoming on Euro! Wow would love to see the snow map for that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 HELLO! Perfectly respectable MECS Miller A in exactly 7 days... Looks like 12"+ forum-wide as long as you're NW of the R/S line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Wow would love to see the snow map for that lol Just for you. Can't capture the whole thing on Kuchera without contamination, so the old 10:1 is gunna have to do. Kuchera is more 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Incoming on Euro! Next 2 panels are better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Why don't we all agree on MECS followed by bitter cold and then another MECS then call it a winter. Only a matter of time before we hear some 1899 comparisons by JB and the usual suspects. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Why don't we all agree on MECS followed by bitter cold and then another MECS then call it a winter. Only a matter of time before we hear some 1899 comparisons by JB and the usual suspects. Lol. Love to get a cold storm followed by an Arctic air mass and have snow otg for a week. That doesn't happen too often anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Big ones are sniffed out early 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Love to get a cold storm followed by an Arctic air mass and have snow otg for a week. That doesn't happen too often anymore. Yeah, I know. Even up here it's tough. My front yard faces due south. I lose a lot of snowcover on sunny days even when its decently cold. A stretch of deep winter would be welcomed. It us on the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Love to get a cold storm followed by an Arctic air mass and have snow otg for a week. That doesn't happen too often anymore. This storm was well predicted by using this tool https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/gfs_hf/vstar_tstar_100.html Ventrice even alluded to it in a recent post. Also the evolution up top supports the development of a extreme MECS. The baroclinic zone supports intense low pressure residing at a lower latitude. Deep Eastern NA trough I feel this storm system will be more powerful colder and wetter than tis event today and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 @CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Brrr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Jesus...you f’ing weenies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 any ensemble support for the storm next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Jesus...you f’ing weenies. Truly an odd breed. Snowing outside in real time and we're looking at the long range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: any ensemble support for the storm next weekend? There's a little somethin' somethin', but you know D7 means. It's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Truly an odd breed. Snowing outside in real time and we're looking at the long range Too true. I’m already focused on next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: any ensemble support for the storm next weekend? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, nj2va said: Will PSU worry about suppression though? I know it’s half joking but last time I’m gonna say this. It snowed today almost to the NC/VA border. We got plenty of suppression. In the end the western ridge axis was just a little too Far East (and we kinda knew that but sometimes you can overcome it) and so the major amplification of the trough happens SLIGHTLY too late for us. Suppression wouldn’t have helped at all. It would have hurt the WAA snow today and probably made the coastal develop further east and miss everyone. We simply needed the trough axis to go negative a little sooner or further west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Good news is the pattern next week looks even better wrt that issue. The next trough amplification looks to happen just to our west which is where we want if we have this kind of blocking 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good news is the pattern next week looks even better wrt that issue. The next trough amplification looks to happen just to our west which is where we want if we have this kind of blocking Bingo. Give me a slightly further west ridge axis and I’ll take my chances with the block making up for it. Let’s f’ing kill it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, frd said: Oh boy, the upper level red and blue schlong sword fight pattern inbound. Hide yo kids and hide yo wifi. And make sure you protect your weenie. 3 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Oh boy, the upper level red and blue schlong sword fight pattern inbound. Hide yo kids and hide yo wifi. And make sure you protect your weenie. I'll be sure to hide my wifi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, frd said: Great we are about to get attacked by a big blue sperm. Nothing good can come of that 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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