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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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8 hours ago, Ji said:

i mean it was a very anamaolous air mass. I was frozen the entire storm. Temps between 28-30 in mid Dec!  850 didnt cooperate though but friends close by in Western Loudoun had 8 plus

Oh, it was pretty cold at the surface but as soon as I saw problems in the mids inching closer I knew it was over for me. At least for a big storm. I invested very little time in that storm. Literally less than an hour over however many days I looked at it. 

I'm not a retired weenie or anything. I'm just not investing jack squat into anything unless it's substantial and practically a lock. My life is too short to keep wasting so much time on something that finds every way possible to disappoint

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14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Damn, thought we'd be getting a cutter at D7. Wonder what happened to that! Guess it wants to snow this winter after all.

 

As mentioned yesterday,  waiting for the Euro to flip to the GEFS side, well , it did ! 

 

Screenshot_20210131-052547_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Maybe - 5 SD 

Next big event lining up 

 

And, the NAO maybe huge reversal here from yesterday.   DIVE DIVE

 

 

Seems counter intuitive but with an AO prog'd to go that negative, if the NAO keeps diving amwx will need a new weenie subforum for the FL panhandle. 

Blocking itself doesnt produce storms obviously but every nosedive and relaxation provides a window for a sig storm. Interesting to see just how cold guidance is hinting at now. TPV being very displaced in Feb is productive in our region. You dont have to go far back in history to confirm this idea.

Just for giggles as I've literally have only briefly scanned lr guidance off and on all winter so far, and I'm not in tune like the heavy lifters... but... I do see potential for a general idea something like this:

Not much of a chance for a big clean storm storm during the period leading into and shortly after the arctic front but some sort of west track cad, modest trailing wave/anafront, or clipper style event would be the most probable way to score something quickly. 

Unless it backs way off in depth, cold shots like this can really dry things out all over the eastern half of the conus so there could be boring period before the next big chance window opens. Snow could come easy regardless of track too. Need the NS to keep dropping shortwaves relatively close together to maximize the chances and avoid ZR to rain after an extended cold period. No idea whatsoever how active the NS will be but persistance argues against any extended lull in precip/storm chances. 

IMO- we're only getting started today. I'm expecting a compressed active winter period along the east coast in general thru the majority of Feb. Nothing specific on guidance telling me this. Just my personal experience. This doesnt translate into multiple stacked up events here. It could but not something worth discussing today. This is the first time I'm interested in the LR all season. But I'm busy AF so I'll let you guys sweat the details until something sets the hook in the mid/short range

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