Prestige Worldwide Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting to see that the nina transitioned to a modoki event in the last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 There is a Day 9 event on the Euro tonight FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: There is a Day 9 event on the Euro tonight FWIW Oooh and it looks to be an STJer, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 hours ago, yoda said: There is a Day 9 event on the Euro tonight FWIW This time frame does have pretty good potential to deliver . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Teleconnections continue to look good moving forward on Euro ensembles. AO and NAO remain firmly negative. EPO goes negative through much of the run. WPO goes negative. PNA remains firmly negative but that is not too bad considering the other indices look really good. Things could be setting up for a solid late winter run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Aaand just like that the Euro has basically diluted the torch that next week's cutter would've provided and instead the temperatures for that 1-2 day period are just slightly above normal, more akin to a typical post-storm warmup. That seasonal trend has been absolutely bonkers since the blocking regime entered the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Aaand just like that the Euro has basically diluted the torch that next week's cutter would've provided and instead the temperatures for that 1-2 day period are just slightly above normal, more akin to a typical post-storm warmup. That seasonal trend has been absolutely bonkers since the blocking regime entered the picture. Models rarely if ever take persistence into consideration. Especially at longer leads. I'll continue to expect the same persistence until it stops. Nobody knows when but it's our absolutely most prime climo and all the big pieces are lined up in advance. I'm a strong believer in hot streaks and imho- the storm tomorrow is prob just the beginning. Not saying we're going on a giant coastal heater in any way. But I do think more events are on the way. It's how we roll. Giant streaks of dead space and despair followed by hot and heavy action. Remember mid Feb 2015? Went all season up until then not getting a light green schlong let alone a red one. But the tide turned. This weekend's storm combine with prime climo and solid H5 mean looks on the ens def makes me think the multi year snowless pattern has changed. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Models rarely if ever take persistence into consideration. Especially at longer leads. I'll continue to expect the same persistence until it stops. Nobody knows when but it's our absolutely most prime climo and all the big pieces are lined up in advance. I'm a strong believer in hot streaks and imho- the storm tomorrow is prob just the beginning. Not saying we're going on a giant coastal heater in any way. But I do think more events are on the way. It's how we roll. Giant streaks of dead space and despair followed by hot and heavy action. Remember mid Feb 2015? Went all season up until then not getting a light green schlong let alone a red one. But the tide turned. This weekend's storm combine with prime climo and solid H5 mean looks on the ens def makes me think the multi year snowless pattern has changed. are you sure you werent checking maps on your break? you have come back in mid season form---as opposed to training camp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro holding strong with that even toward the end of its run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @CAPE Ready to track more storms? I remember when I said I wouldn't be tracking anything in February. Pepperidge farm remembers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, HighStakes said: Teleconnections continue to look good moving forward on Euro ensembles. AO and NAO remain firmly negative. EPO goes negative through much of the run. WPO goes negative. PNA remains firmly negative but that is not too bad considering the other indices look really good. Things could be setting up for a solid late winter run. Can you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This period continues to look intriguing. I mean, damn. Pretty decent look at h5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We seem to be having a lot of PNA spikes show up as we get closer in time. It may be disappointing to see a -PNA on the mean there but it washes out any brief PNA spike that might be in there. And that block is hella strong, just a little east of ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This is weenie stuff. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: This is weenie stuff. this is stuff that makes @Bob Chill quit the hobby. Persistant AO/NAO for the entire winter and you havent even seen your floor get whitened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: this is stuff that makes @Bob Chill quit the hobby. Persistant AO/NAO for the entire winter and you havent even seen your floor get whitened Dude getting an extremely favorable AO/NAO in Feb is entirely different than having it in mid Dec, plus we have the TPV on our side and some legit cold in our source region. It likes to snow in Feb anyway. As long as the Pac is serviceable, there will be some legit chances ahead with the advertised HL look. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: This period continues to look intriguing. I mean, damn. Pretty decent look at h5. That hint of SE ridge should make you guys salivate, just enough ridge to fight off suppression. For myself (and your brother NW of Greensboro, NC) it is worrisome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Dude getting an extremely favorable AO/NAO in Feb is entirely different than having it in mid Dec, plus we have the TPV on our side and some legit cold in our source region. It likes to snow in Feb anyway. As long as the Pac is serviceable, there will be some legit chances ahead with the advertised HL look. One of the mets who doesn't post here all that often chimed in back in mid January and mentioned how most of the Canadian airspace was dominated by low pressure systems, which was in part causing a majority of Jan to perform a rug pull. Just checked the EPS and it's an incredible reversal, HP train all the way from the source. Seems like the GEFS isn't as cold and dry as it was showing 1-2 days ago either, looks pretty EPS-like. Fun times ahead!! Also the EPS brings back our constant barrage of 50/50 lows and spins them around from day 8 onwards 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, cbmclean said: That hint of SE ridge should make you guys salivate, just enough ridge to fight off suppression. For myself (and your brother NW of Greensboro, NC) it is worrisome. That's not an awful look even for interior NC. If that block is as advertised, and going with seasonal trends, that ridge may well verify flatter. As for my brother, he has already stolen all my snow so far lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Now if we end up with an entire winter of -AO/-NAO...I mean it's gotta be the solar minimum, right? We haven't had practically wall-to-wall -AO/-NAO since 2009/10...which, oh btw, was also a year after the solar minimum? Lol If February indeed works out well, I'll be even more convinced! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now if we end up with an entire winter of -AO/-NAO...I mean it's gotta be the solar minimum, right? We haven't had practically wall-to-wall -AO/-NAO since 2009/10...which, oh btw, was also a year after the solar minimum? Lol If February indeed works out well, I'll be even more convinced! I just thought of that as well. It's the 11 year cycle of epic winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: are you sure you werent checking maps on your break? you have come back in mid season form---as opposed to training camp I still click through maps when it's interesting. It takes less than 1 minute a day to glance at lr h5 progs. It takes waaaaay too many minutes a day to explain it to people who only want to know "wen snow how much?" Dec was easy to not care about. Sure, there was blocking but it's a nina, kinda warm, and only Dec so for my yard it's usually a no go. North of me is different and they scored. I wasnt interested at anything really. Things have changed and we're seeing some fruit. For whatever reason, our area seems to love compressed 2-3 week active periods. I just ignore details at long leads and wait for something interesting with a legitimate chance in a reasonable period of time before spending more than 2 mins a day looking at model maps. You should try it sometime. It's a helluva lot more fun and since I dont live and die new info every 6 hours, any snow is good snow. Lots of snow is like drugs and stuff 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I just thought of that as well. It's the 11 year cycle of epic winters! Let's hope this winter can earn that epic title (or at least a rating of great or fantanstic!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I still click through maps when it's interesting. It takes less than 1 minute a day to glance at lr h5 progs. It takes waaaaay too many minutes a day to explain it to people who only want to know "wen snow how much?" Dec was easy to not care about. Sure, there was blocking but it's a nina, kinda warm, and only Dec so for my yard it's usually a no go. North of me is different and they scored. I wasnt interested at anything really. Things have changed and we're seeing some fruit. For whatever reason, our area seems to love compressed 2-3 week active periods. I just ignore details at long leads and wait for something interesting with a legitimate chance in a reasonable period of time before spending more than 2 mins a day looking at model maps. You should try it sometime. It's a helluva lot more fun and since I dont live and die new info every 6 hours, any snow is good snow. Lots of snow is like drugs and stuff i actually got 4 in Leesburg(are you happy Leesburg04) and then a bunch of sleet so the i had legit wonder wonderland snow cover for a week leading into Christmas. Was pretty amazing but pretty heartbreaking to see so many runs of 20 plus inch..turn into 4-6 but that was a great storm and it really impacted a huge part of december...the 8 days or so tracking it and then the snowcover afterwards and it actually snowed on Christmas Day. December was pretty interesting. But when you didnt come out and play....it did worry me(the dec 15 storm lol)...and know i know why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i actually got 4 in Leesburg(are you happy Leesburg04) and then a bunch of sleet so the i had legit wonder wonderland snow cover for a week leading into Christmas. Was pretty amazing but pretty heartbreaking to see so many runs of 20 plus inch..turn into 4-6 but that was a great storm and it really impacted a huge part of december...the 8 days or so tracking it and then the snowcover afterwards and it actually snowed on Christmas Day. December was pretty interesting. But when you didnt come out and play....it did worry me(the dec 15 storm lol)...and know i know why. I liked that event and I liked the recent little event. Fun to watch and made everything look great. I knew (for my yard) in Dec that if I was going to get a big hit, 4+ day model progs werent going to tell me jack squat. Too early and warm. I need a very anomalous cold airmass and everything else to break right to be all or big snow. Never really saw that being likely. If it held inside of 2 days I may have jumped in but never got that close to consider doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The temperature drop after the D6 cutter is just obscene. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Can you post them? Sorry, I just saw this. I see that CAPE posted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Arctic hounds still en route on tonights 0z GFS model run for Super Bowl Sunday. Coldest air of the year hopefully reaches us a day or 2 later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I liked that event and I liked the recent little event. Fun to watch and made everything look great. I knew (for my yard) in Dec that if I was going to get a big hit, 4+ day model progs werent going to tell me jack squat. Too early and warm. I need a very anomalous cold airmass and everything else to break right to be all or big snow. Never really saw that being likely. If it held inside of 2 days I may have jumped in but never got that close to consider doing that. i mean it was a very anamaolous air mass. I was frozen the entire storm. Temps between 28-30 in mid Dec! 850 didnt cooperate though but friends close by in Western Loudoun had 8 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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