Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chill I’m just teasing you. I’m probably your biggest only fan in here so calm yourself. noted! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast. Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block. If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low. It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block. If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low. It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though... Is that a good or a concerned about downside ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place. oops. i just repinned it. edit to add: i unpinned it again. sorry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that a good or a concerned about downside ? I think you end up south of that brick wall it’s fine but this won’t gain a lot of latitude on the coast imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Some bombs in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: If that doesn't look like something, I don't know what does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Looking good. Best of the season so far I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 WB 12Z EPS thru Day 15. Well if you don’t get 3 inches or more by February 5.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I would think a few days after this could be the event of the - AO cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Looking further into Feb. hopefully the retraction delivers by early Feb, then we may go the other way with a Pac extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @psuhoffman Even going into early Feb , not bad. You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3 rd. Here we are at the 5 th, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Even going into early Feb , not bad. You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3 rd. Here we are at the 5 th, That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March, I am intrigued if we can maintain the - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. Here is mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GEFS has a more consolidated wave for Feb. 1 than the EPS, but pretty sparse on snowy members... GEFS: EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 9 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, frd said: Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March, I am intrigued if we can maintain the - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. Here is mid Feb That’s actually a pretty good look. Shades of 2014 and 2015. Those years achieved that through a different mechanism on the Atlantic side...a trapped tpv. That setup has pac ridge further west but a -NAO to offset. The result is a similar pattern over the conus. Wouldn’t be as cold but a good storm track in Feb and early March is ok so long as we’re not torching and we shouldn’t be in that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @frd just looked. After a relax the weeklies imply another surge of the NAO from Feb 10-15 which sets off a progression that would be very favorable from about Feb 16 through into mid March here. Huge if but that pattern would imply we get another crack at a snowy period later in winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Another hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, frd said: Another hit How many final blows can the PV take in one season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, cbmclean said: How many final blows can the PV take in one season? It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit. For the less educated among us, what, if anything does thus imply for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 C'mon folks I need some good news here...please tell me that we won't have to punt February, and that we'll have a chance. Haven't heard anybody say a ton about Feb. yet! (Edit, I see some discussion a page or two ago) A chance or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Retreat! EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 10 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 (With next week's east coast storm ~ a week away, this will be the last post of this type in the long-range forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not a bad look for early Feb. Not exactly what we want to see up to the NE, but this pattern has the potential to bring some decent cold. That's an ingredient we have been sorely missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 hours ago, cbmclean said: For the less educated among us, what, if anything does thus imply for us? Not one damn thing. Everything has looked great for a month or more and if you look outside on the ground you can see how we have benefited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts