WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: Typical disclaimers apply Meh 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Meh exacty. That would be decent for one storm.....not a memorable stretch 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: exacty. That would be decent for one storm.....not a memorable stretch Dude, 15” in 15 days is pretty memorable. Have you not been paying attention the last two years? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The cool thing about the usual 10 day Euro threats we see almost every run, they are moving up closer in time and replaced with another day 10 threat moving up etc. Cool cycle to have finally. We (DC subforum region primarily) need to get the early week system to produce and break make the ice. FIFY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 How Bullish is everyone for the Jan 28th event?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: exacty. That would be decent for one storm.....not a memorable If I got 15 inches of snow the next 15 days I be talking the next ice age. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 8 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 8 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 Good to see that spread narrow a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 TT is running late for the GFS and I can't figure out a lot of the WxBell panels, but here's the GFS surface depiction at hr 165 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS is such a joke......Low off SC with mixing issues in Virginia.....smh And then a 996 off of Hatteras but the main slug of snow is in Pennsylvania :p. Although the main takeaway is that it has the storm. Interesting evolution too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I really hate to say this, but our real deal may be this storm and not the Monday thing. And that irritates me. The “ one behind it” rule. Ugh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Wow.. that system hitting a brick wall with the 50/50 low is a thing of beauty. Intensifies to a 978mb low pressure a fair bit offshore, but I'd imagine the precip would be more expansive than what is depicted. Great run for an op at this range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Wow.. that system hitting a brick wall with the 50/50 low is a thing of beauty. Intensifies to a 978mb low pressure a fair bit offshore, but I'd imagine the precip would be more expansive than what is depicted. Great run for an op at this range though the first storm looks like it would rely on cad holding on, probably favoring the elevated areas. the 2nd one might just need a storm...looks like plenty of cold air in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 28th system gets bumped into the Storm Threat discussion since its now Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 hours ago, JakkelWx said: That must mean miller b potential. east based block 4 hours ago, frd said: Yes, but before that, even if true, are several opportunities for us to get some snow. Depends Jan 2000 was an east based block. It’s true west is better but it’s not like I’d kick an east block out of bed. It’s still a better pattern then no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Ji said: exacty. That would be decent for one storm.....not a memorable stretch You are a stretch...memorable is debatable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I really hate to say this, but our real deal may be this storm and not the Monday thing. And that irritates me. The “ one behind it” rule. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro looks very good at 162hrs. Low heading up the southern apps. Lots of cold air ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends Jan 2000 was an east based block. It’s true west is better but it’s not like I’d kick an east block out of bed. It’s still a better pattern then no blocking. Jan 2000 is one of the top analogs based on the GEFS for days 8-14. Also Feb 1994. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Amped said: Euro looks very good at 162hrs. Low heading up the southern apps. Lots of cold air ahead of it. snow at 168 but we are in the wrong thread and this is the most irritating thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Can we just start a thread for the Jan 28 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ji said: snow at 168 but we are in the wrong thread and this is the most irritating thing Don’t sell yourself short 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Don’t sell yourself short are you in a bad mood today lol? its only frozen water. Get a grip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Can we just start a thread for the Jan 28 storm? We did it’s day 7 so it’s in the day 3-7 thread. Just be glad we have so many threats it’s confusing...that’s a new and good problem to have. Back in the day we just started a storm specific thread pretty early but now everyone is like NOOOO it will kill it because some decided it’s our threads and not our crap climo that kills storms. Short of going back to specific threads having short/medium/long range threads seems the best we can do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 DAMN !!!!!!!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: are you in a bad mood today lol? its only frozen water. Get a grip! Chill I’m just teasing you. I’m probably your biggest fan in here so calm yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I wish this was tomorrow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: DAMN !!!!!!!!!! Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast. Yeah, it needs to be farther southwest and it's an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, it needs to be farther southwest and it's an absolute beast. As progged verbatim, coastal areas would get a long overdue warning criteria event at the very least (amount other areas of course). Enjoy for another 12 hours we know it will change one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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