Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @psuhoffmanwhat is the max potential of this storm and how do we get it lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This 2nd storm has legs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, yoda said: Para GFS going to slide south of us for the 28th threat Trend...it was totally squashed to a coastal SC storm 24 hours ago. Just like the old gfs it’s more amplified every run. This is typical gfs error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276. Driving rain to snowstorm lol Well then... didnt expect that on the 24 hr snow map... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 ill take this GFS run(with some adjustments) and call it a winter. Then i dont care if Weather will $hits on my February by telling me to come back in March. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276. EPS supports another wave also but has it a little faster around the 31. Imo the window for a wave to amplify along the east coast is best between 28-2 or so. The chances to run the coast increases through that window as the blocking relaxes but the chances we lose enough cold starts to increase after the wave on the 28/29. By the 3rd the pattern has started to progress again (after retrogression this week) and the ridge might come too far east and close the window for a time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Pretty tonight from the GooFuS... no less than 3 storms in the next 2 weeks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffmanwhat is the max potential of this storm and how do we get it lol? It has a lot of pattern similarities to PD1. So that kind of system is max potential since that was the big kahuna example of that type of progression. It’s not likely to gain a lot of latitude up the coast. It does have room to amplify to the coast though but it’s likely to move more east then north. Originally like a week ago I thought that wave had a chance to ride the coast but the pattern is progressing the way I thought but slightly slower so the wave after might be more likely to be one that can turn the corner. But we don’t need that to get a big storm if we get a favorable upper low pass with an amplified system. The wave after is more likely to gain latitude along the coast but with that comes possible temperature issues. Way too far out to worry about it yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS says see you in February... WB 0z GEFS says see you next week... 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying low pressure on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying costal on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period. H5 low is in NW AL at 240... with SLP near the GA/SC border at 1005mb ETA: mod snow down by CHO at 240... no precip to DCA yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Come on 06z GFS... so tasty looking at 168 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Come on 06z GFS... so tasty looking at 168 damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, yoda said: damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min ORF gets 3 winters worth of powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min You can’t have an ORF and DCA crush job. Those streams can’t be crossed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min Seems to be + PNA pulse around this time, which may enter into the final outcomes and encourage the system to be more of a coastal impact for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Is there any support for the 10 day euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there any support for the 10 day euro? I support it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Close to a complete split near the 5 th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Close to another mean wind reversal on Feb 1 st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 @psuhoffman the positives keep getting eliminated.. I am speculating whether we have hit the lowest point of the - AO cycle this winter. Maybe in a few days we achieve the lowest - SD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there any support for the 10 day euro? The cool thing about the usual 10 day Euro threats we see almost every run, they are moving up closer in time and replaced with another day 10 threat moving up etc. Cool cycle to have finally. We (DC subforum region primarily) need to get the early week system to produce and break the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The coolest image yet at hour 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Re load the pattern 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: The coolest image yet at hour 384 The posture of the stick figure on the far right is awful, get that thing to a chiropractor fast 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Re load the pattern That must mean miller b potential. east based block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: That must mean miller b potential. east based block Yes, but before that, even if true, are several opportunities for us to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Typical disclaimers apply 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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