psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that. Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. @Ji We cannot waste this. This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often. I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. @Ji We cannot waste this. This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often. I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work! cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic SWEET ! IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that. If you get that then my prediction is gonna look very “geniusy” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, frd said: SWEET ! IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid. This has to lol. If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good? That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, Ji said: cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol *In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 7 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol *In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..." Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always ..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? Not quite my style... 4 minutes ago, rclab said: Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always ..... But THIS is!!! Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This has to lol. If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good? That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south Trend is our friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Trend is our friend? Oh damn...didnt do a comparison. That's kinda encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 You want the jackpot to be VA Beach 4-5 days out so not a bad place to be currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Trend is our friend?When it comes to snow we have no friends Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: Exceptionally good look considering 276 hours out. All aboard ! Maybe 12 days out will do better than 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah. Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I mean, what is this garbage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GEFS has a signal but it's not great. Could argue its #rightwherewewant it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS says see you in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade. There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch. So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 It’s over 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s over 48 inches ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s over 360 hours out, plenty of time for an east trend?? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s over Is this a test ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s over I view that as a 9% chance. That ain’t bad. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I heard the KMA looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Is this a test ? I can't tell if you legitimately don't know he's joking or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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