cbmclean Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression, that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in. I wouldn't worry to much about it. Last year, amidst the simultaneous raging ++++AO with Pacific Doom Blob, the GFS somehow managed to spit out snowstorm for Jacksonville, Florida. It was gone the next run, and needless to say, it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nobody mentioned the 1-2 punch on the Euro control for day 7 and day 9 . Day 9 is an eyelash from even bigger result . Lots of snow for the combo even verbatim. Most of us don’t see the control. I’d love to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. Wel not for all of NC lol. I would be looking at cloudy skies and temps in the 30s while in the palmetto state and Savannah would be ripping dendrites. That would hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Avdave said: Wel not for all of NC lol. I would be looking at cloudy skies and temps in the 30s while in the palmetto state and Savannah would be ripping dendrites. That would hurt You can take the boy out of the DMV but you can't take the DMV out of the boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 - WPO related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The model is truly like spinning the wheel. It's infuriating. The GFS is the stormchaserchuck of models. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Most of us don’t see the control. I’d love to Sir, this is not pornhub. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, frd said: - WPO related I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan. That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's infuriating. The GFS is the stormchaserchuck of models. But if the NAO you might -QBO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan. That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific . Exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 35 days out and the PV never gets back to the ERA5 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 We do have snow cover to help with the eventual cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, frd said: 35 days out and the PV never gets back to the ERA5 mean. Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down! What are your feelings for February? Seems to be some back peddling in the met community of a typical Niña feb response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down! Yes, simply keep it weak. Going forward it will be interesting to see if in later Feb and March the effects of changing wavelengths combined with lingering arctic air masses and whether they mix it up along the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down! Structure really opening it up late in the period. Not a tight vortex at all. Just looking at this animation of the vortex I would assume a - NAM state possible. Speculation of course. Supports the 35 day GEFS above though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What are your feelings for February? Seems to be some back peddling in the met community of a typical Niña feb response. I am cautiously optimistic. I do think the typical Nina central pac ridge will offer some resistance and we will ridge at times. But if the NAO stays negative which guidance suggests and the pac jet remains more relaxed with a ridge in the western N pac we should get opportunities. The NAO will suppress the SE ridge at times and so long as the pac ridge extends poleward it will prevent the pac from torching us again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 If you want snow go to Hawaii "URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 338 AM HST Tue Jan 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... .An upper level disturbance will keep clouds and snow showers in the forecast for the Big Island summits of Maunakea and Maunaloa through the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's infuriating. The GFS is the stormchaserchuck of models. Can you tell the GFS to shut up? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 If you want snow go to Hawaii "URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 338 AM HST Tue Jan 19 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... .An upper level disturbance will keep clouds and snow showers in the forecast for the Big Island summits of Maunakea and Maunaloa through the day.Telling girls that it snows in Hawaii is a great way to impress them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 @Ji the 28th threat definitely not dead on the geps. Quite a few members with a storm there. I count 12/20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS still likes the 28th/29th ETA: so it’s debatable whether this is capturing 2 different events over these 4 days or if it’s one event with timing differences. There aren’t any members with two hits. But members that eject a wave around the 28 that’s it. Other members wash that out and develop the next wave instead a day later. But bottom line is eps really like something between the 28-31 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1”% 3”% 6”% 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS still likes the 28th/29th ETA: so it’s debatable whether this is capturing 2 different events over these 4 days or if it’s one event with timing differences. There aren’t any members with two hits. But members that eject a wave around the 28 that’s it. Other members wash that out and develop the next wave instead a day later. But bottom line is eps really like something between the 28-31 It is becoming clear to me that the Euro/CMC families are handling the west based nao rex a whole hell of alot better than the GFS family. For whatever reason as far back as when the GFS was the MRF I recall it struggling wrt the NS underneath blocking and it seems this is the case still 25 years later amidst all of the upgrades. I could be wrong in my analysis however and the GFS and GEFS may be the one on the right page, but recent trends seem to be in support of Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The boys at Bam moving right on to cancelling winter now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: The boys at Bam moving right on to cancelling winter now Those are somewhat misleading graphics to say the least. Those guys do weather like partisans do politics... which is weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: The boys at Bam moving right on to cancelling winter now They cancelled winter back in October, even before Ji normally does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 6 runs (College Park) through Feb 2 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 North, south, east or west most of us are in the game! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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