Paleocene Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I have called things wrong before as a n00b but it looks like the euro is about to crank up a weenie run post d8 on 12z... will add maps shortly edit: lesson: do not comment on model runs until they over :-D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Was going to say the same. Slightly stronger, healthier looking system entering the plains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: Was going to say the same. Slightly stronger, healthier looking system entering the plains Funny, I was thinking the opposite. Looks washed out to me compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Nice to see "H's" in the right spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Funny, I was thinking the opposite. Looks washed out to me compared to 00z. Coming out of the Rockies it looked to have a little more to it. It definitely did wash out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Funny, I was thinking the opposite. Looks washed out to me compared to 00z. Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. still much to learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: Coming out of the Rockies it looked to have a little more to it. It definitely did wash out though. Just now, Paleocene said: Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. americanwx, please don't ever change... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 How’s that area wide prediction looking so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 minor changes from 00z to 12z at d10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 End of the euro run is cold! Low pressure forming over TN with temps in the single digits for us. Me likey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: End of the euro run is cold! Low pressure forming over TN with temps in the single digits for us. Me likey. The psu blizzard incoming. I like the end of Jan and early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Yeah...that was a powder keg ready to go off. Hard to tell if that TPV tail whip was going to suppress it or just all bundle together for pure epicness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread. Moving it here. I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in. If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: The psu blizzard incoming. I like the end of Jan and early Feb. Welcome aboard the crazy train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 JB honking is likely a contrary indicator... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread. Moving it here. I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in. If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. March 2001 scenario. Complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, benjammin said: JB honking is likely a contrary indicator... He's been on the "son of snowmageddon" kick for a couple weeks now. JB sniffs the big ones out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 That’s a tough angle for a phase at the end of the euro. I’d guess it would miss the phase past 240 if I had to guess. Or maybe phase well OTS. Still a pretty nice setup. Busy times ahead hopefully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: He's been on the "son of snowmageddon" kick for a couple weeks now. JB sniffs the big ones out early. He sniffs something, that’s for sure. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: He's been on the "son of snowmageddon" kick for a couple weeks now. JB sniffs the big ones out early. What exactly is he sniffing again? Eta: damn you @WxUSAF ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What exactly is he sniffing again? White powder everywhere... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread. Moving it here. I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in. If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. 700mb wind maps says it all. Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda. Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds. Not taping any juice with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: White powder everywhere... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 WB 12Z EURO control looks like the deterministic....good news! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, Amped said: 700mb wind maps says it all. Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda. Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds. Not taping any juice with that setup. It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 All I can saw is widespread , so that is a plus, actual amounts don't mean as much as the signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 @frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal. It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block. Ridge is suppressed. Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Fwiw geps likes the idea of a groundhogs day storm also 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Interesting @RaleighWx · 23h Well the pacific has been unfavorable all year. If it moves into or ends up in phase 7 in February it is much colder looking with -glaam. MJO not everything, but so far the met winter has been mild for most last image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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