Rhino16 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I did like that 0z CMC run. Was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6z GFS looks quite different at h5 and south from 0z. Doesn’t punch the ridge up to MI hr 144 on this run. Then 28th gives us some blue. Not JWB but another step in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, mappy said: not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. I've made it this far in life with a 4% success rate...buyer beware 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh Nope it's specifically about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. gonna start calling you Nostradamus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: gonna start calling you Nostradamus I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner dont ever change, friend. Just now, leesburg 04 said: I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal probs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. No one is perfect, however, I do believe solely from a SSWE association there have been areas of unusual cold and snow far South in the latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere . There were a few recent examples the last ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, MocoMike said: 6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th Not really South. First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z. Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”. 1 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, mappy said: gonna start calling you Nostradamus If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go! We need to bring it home! BTW—My fridge has been stocked up and ready since 2016. Eta: Meh-who we kidding. It’s always full of deliciousness. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? lol yes. love it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Anyone talking about the zr threat from the GFS and somewhat from the Euro? It looks like 1/3" of freezing rain with that first thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”. “Region” defined as I81 west to the edge of the LWX CFO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park) 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Who said Joe wasn't calling for snow ? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go! When we shift (12z today or tomorrow makes sense), I'd suggest moving over all discussion of the very active January 25 - January 29 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Latest update, more consolidation to keep the AO negative longer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 @psuhoffman there is indeed some support showing that we may not totally go absent blocking in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Both 6z gfs runs kind of caved to what the Euro and CMC were showing at 12z yesterday. Just not as cold. I actually feel pretty good about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I am seriously ready for some fuccking snow ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: “Region” defined as I81 west to the edge of the LWX CFO Nope. All. Go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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