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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:24 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

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not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:24 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

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I've made it this far in life with a 4% success rate...buyer beware

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:41 PM, mappy said:

have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh

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Nope it's specifically about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:44 PM, leesburg 04 said:

Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

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No one is perfect, however, I do believe solely from a SSWE association there have been areas of unusual cold and snow far South in the latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere . 

There were a few recent examples the last ten days.  

 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:32 PM, MocoMike said:

6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th

image.thumb.png.355bf6506056466ea6738745789df49c.png
 

image.thumb.png.fd46697b5a39e084ce9f47b954d98cce.png

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Not really South.  First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z.

Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1. 

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Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. 

 

EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park)

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11

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