Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. To me the gas has been the best model because it's been the stingiest with snow. The European which runs 2x a day has given us way more blue than gfs which runs 4xSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Ji said: It was never supposed to be a good winter because we weren't suppose to have a southern stream...-ao...-nao...pretty much all winter. So it's underperforming for the wrong seasons Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Ok you want to find excuses to be miserable or just exhale a sigh of relief if we finally get a flush hit and be happy? Btw you’re totally right. But we can’t ignore the really dreadfully awful pacific base state either. And we did (you and I) get a decent snow wrt out respective climo in Dec. If we get a couple more snows by the end of winter maybe that’s as good as we can expect given it’s a Nina in a really awful pac base state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. It was eye opening today when models spit out a hecs in myrle Beach. Crazy stuff like that tells me we can still win in this patternSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 CMC does by the way drop 1 to 3 inches for N VA/DC/MD on the 26th before the big storm a few days later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I keep seeing that. But be honest...in crunch time, which would you trust. I would never trust any one model if it’s on an island. I don’t consider this to be that. The cmc progression has support from the EPS. Maybe the 974 bomb is overdone but the general progression isn’t without support. But if I could only look at the gfs and cmc and had to judge based on that alone honestly CMC right now. It’s been better. Neither is perfect. CMC was way better then the GFS with the Dec storm. It caught the north shift a lot sooner. It also had that crazy trowel deform that gave some places 40” from like 4 days out. That’s impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: To me the gas has been the best model because it's been the stingiest with snow. The European which runs 2x a day has given us way more blue than gfs which runs 4x Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk GAS is about right for it. Lol. Global Fart System. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: To me the gas has been the best model because it's been the stingiest with snow. The European which runs 2x a day has given us way more blue than gfs which runs 4x Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk You mean other then when it kept giving us 2 feet of snow long after every other model shifted north in December ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Next week has very good potential. And I still think the best window for something to amplify along the east coast is around the 28/29. But the tight spacing with all these waves makes this complicated and will wreak havoc with the guidance run to run. This isn’t a simple blocking setup with one juiced up stj wave slowly sliding across in a split flow. This involves several waves and how they interact. The first thing to root for us a weaker lead NS wave. The more that amps the more complicated the next wave becomes. If that NS wave gets out of the way the nest case scenario would be the next 2 waves both hit and without much separation between the two it could snow for most of 3 days from that solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The gefs is a shotgun of everything. They don’t support the op really but neither do they support any one solution. I count 11 members with a weak lead wave and stronger second wave like the euro. Some miss south. Some nice hits. A couple north. Then some have a stringer lead wave but are colder and snow with that wave. There are some members like the op too. For the 3rd wave that the cmc bombs they have that wave but are all over. Some hits. Some cutters. Largest camp with that is suppressed just south of us. The gefs is obviously not able to handle all the interaction between waves. They are a mess of every possible outcome. ETA: through day 11 a definite improvement though wrt number of hits and mean snowfall over 18z and 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Geps improved also but has a shotgun of everything under the sun as well. Hitting the 28/29 hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Awaiting the eps later but the Euro op is much less ridge and much more 50/50 and overall improved setup going into the 26th vs 0z jan 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 00z Euro OP goes north of us for Jan 26 chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Awaiting the eps later but the Euro op is much less ridge and much more 50/50 and overall improved setup going into the 26th vs 0z jan 18 It over amplifies the wave and rides it just a bit too far north. Big snowstorm for central/northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It over amplifies the wave and rides it just a bit too far north. Big snowstorm for central/northern PA. Doesnt look like Euro will have a 2nd wave looking at h5 at 204 ETA: well maybe a bit slower than the CMC I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It over amplifies the wave and rides it just a bit too far north. Big snowstorm for central/northern PA. Yep vs the 12z it definitely surged more SW flow ahead of the system. Close enough and far enough out to still have a chance....both regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 00z Euro day7-8 storm looks almost identical to the 12z GFS. Mostly rain and ZR for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesnt look like Euro will have a 2nd wave looking at h5 at 204 3rd wave looks promising still. Didnt there used to be a rule in these progressions that the 3rd wave was usually the one to watch? I remember that from the eastern days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Well 1042mb HP in northern Quebec at 222... guess we'll see how this goes to end the Euro run... snow breaking out in Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesnt look like Euro will have a 2nd wave looking at h5 at 204 ETA: well maybe a bit slower than the CMC I guess It’s there just slower. Actually I like what I see at h5. Let’s see where it goes with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looks like it's being forced to transfer SE at 228 from MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s there just slower. Actually I like what I see at h5. Let’s see where it goes with it. Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 240 has 1005mb SLP in KY... h5 low close behind... bagginess in SLP isobars though down towards GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 240 has 1005mb SLP in KY... h5 low close behind... bagginess in SLP isobars though down towards N GA? Yeah, either a slider OR by the looks of it might try and go neg and turn the corner. Crapshoot on an ops at that range. Plenty of tracking and potential with ample cold air around....thats my takeaway. Eta: there is another sw diving due S from the N GL trying to interact under the blocking as well. Loads of potential! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together. Lol Well at least both Euro and CMC tonight have a 1040mb+ HP in the right location... let's see how long that lasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves. The OP delays the 12z EPS big dog look to day 10+, and wave #1 could be a medium dog if trends a little south. * not sure what happened to the little dog it may have been eaten by the big dog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together. it’s the same wave though the cmc bombs and we’ve been tracking for the 28/29 but the euro is slower with it so it’s a day later then on the cmc. But that’s not the same as kicking the can to the “next” storm. Same storm just slower to progression this run. I am a little disappointed it tracks the system on the 26th north of us but it wasn’t that far north that it might not adjust back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 @Ralph Wiggum @yoda there is a closed h5 low in the Ohio valley tracking east about to cross right over us. Surface low will reorganize along the coast. That was about to crush us in the next 12 hours but the run ended. Figures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 EPS still tracks the wave on the 26th to our south. We’re definitely on the edge flirting with the rain snow line but it’s not as far north as the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 26th threat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 28/29 threat I like that distribution pattern very much. Reminds me of something 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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