RedSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Yet the old GFS is wanting to get on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we lost the para Still early but I don’t like some of the signs at 120 on the cmc either. More ridging. Stronger NS lead wave. Not as bad as the gfs but a step towards that look v the euro and previous cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Second wave doesn't look too bad on the old GFS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Second wave doesn't look too bad on the old GFS, no? That’s still too far out to worry about what an op run says. We’re getting to the range where it’s time to take them more seriously for the first wave though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Bob chill never liked complicated ways to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Bob chill never liked complicated ways to get snow Just now, psuhoffman said: The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. Ok that was scary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Well uncomplicated hasn’t worked this winter for DC, so who’s to say complicated isn’t the ticket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. Its trying to transfer at 222... that 1040mb H should be a roadblock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Now if that map at 240 isn't blue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Its trying to transfer at 222... that 1040mb H should be a roadblock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. What else did you want to see on the CMC? 850 and 2mT? That's on PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. I'm pulling a Ji here, but it's rather comical that the three models that seem to leave us void of snow (GFS, Para, Canadian) for the 26th threat all decide to paste us with snow for the day 10 threat. We're bringing the boulder up the hill again, let's see how it ends this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Only 10 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I hate to pull a JB but I’m going too...the progression I went with was made before the ops showed this at the surface and was based on what I felt was the most likely surface result given the longwave pattern. Then some runs started showing exactly that. So long as there is still some support I’m sticking to it. It still makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I'll take what jan 28 is selling and call it a winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: What else did you want to see on the CMC? 850 and 2mT? That's on PW BLUE....BLUE BLUE BLUE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 BLUE....BLUE BLUE BLUEDark blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. To bad it's the CMC on it's own....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Ji said: I'll take what jan 28 is selling and call it a winter Just let this go the way the pattern says it should one freaking time and let’s call it a winter. This was never supposed to be a good year. Yea it’s frustrating to underperform a -AO winter. But if we can just get one big one...end the drought then relax and whatever else comes after is gravy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8-14" region wide. Sigh. Only 10 days away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It does seem like we’ll at least have several rolls of the dice. Hopefully at least one of them comes up blue for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: To bad it's the CMC on it's own....for now. The euro has been flirting close to that idea for a while and just missing the final phase by a thread. But it’s been in the ensembles. Some crazy members in there. It’s not the majority but enough evidence for me to stick to my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just let this go the way the pattern says it should one freaking time and let’s call it a winter. This was never supposed to be a good year. Yea it’s frustrating to underperform a -AO winter. But if we can just get one big one...end the drought then relax and whatever else comes after is gravy. It was never supposed to be a good winter because we weren't suppose to have a southern stream...-ao...-nao...pretty much all winter. So it's underperforming for the wrong seasonsSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8-14" region wide. Sigh. Only 10 days away!We've been 10 days away for 22 days Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I think we can do 50-60" with hurricane force winds. Give it a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: To bad it's the CMC on it's own....for now. No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. Yeah, I keep seeing that. But be honest...in crunch time, which would you trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro has been flirting close to that idea for a while and just missing the final phase by a thread. But it’s been in the ensembles. Some crazy members in there. It’s not the majority but enough evidence for me to stick to my call. Para GFS has a storm day into day 10 as well... 4 to 6 inches for most but more down towards S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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