aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too. a short 1 minute ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Go back to where you belong. Yea! Go back...But you can leave that snow map right where it is thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Avdave said: Yeah it is me, I live in NC now, moved here in 2016, I miss Leesburg I thought it was you! Great to see you around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Go back to where you belong. What triggered you lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Trend broken after a short 12 hours? Yea hence the “not over react”. I felt like people wanted me to say “it’s over we’re screwed” because of a couple bad runs yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too. Yea I’ve noticed somewhere around 150 hours (sometimes a little longer sometimes a little less) the globals have been latching onto the major synoptic setups. Adjustments after that are less wild and more fine tuning details. We need this to hold inside that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I thought it was you! Great to see you around here. Been enjoying your pics out on Garrett land, congrats on having a place out there, thats awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea hence the “not over react”. I felt like people wanted me to say “it’s over we’re screwed” because of a couple bad runs yesterday. I think you're on to something about the frequency of model runs...good lord this place can be manic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I’ve noticed somewhere around 150 hours (sometimes a little longer sometimes a little less) the globals have been latching onto the major synoptic setups. Adjustments after that are less wild and more fine tuning details. We need this to hold inside that window. If this more or less holds through the Wednesday 0z runs, then we can say it’s the best snow chance since mid December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Weird couple pages. Dave making a return, and BTR telling Metfan to get out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this more or less holds through the Wednesday 0z runs, then we can say it’s the best snow chance since mid December. Just once can it simply go the way we drew it up... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control was noice Meh 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too. One thing about it though ... a storm of some sort in this time range has been on the models a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Weird couple pages. Dave making a return, and BTR telling Metfan to get out. Let’s face it MG. This place is weird 24-7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: This has been very noticeable. As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run. I haven't even been wearing a hat! Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times. What's the coldest temp at DCA this season? Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that? Even Chicago (ORD) has only had 2 days this season with a low temp colder than 18F. It's really shocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just FYI eps likes both the 26th and 28th waves. Threat 1 Threat 2: this is still the best shot at a BIG storm Imo that ridge out west is close...slightly east but with that whole NW to SE alignment across North America due to the block something should be able to amplify in less room then typical wavelengths imo. Can see the energy coming east (x) and imo that’s primed for an amplifying system along the east coast at about our latitude. If anything this looks even better then when I first showed this period a few days ago. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, beavis1729 said: Even Chicago (ORD) has only had 2 days this season with a low temp colder than 18F. It's really shocking... My backyard amphibian pond hasn't frozen over even once and I still have the waterfall pump going. And even worse, the hanging petunia baskets on my front porch are already regrowing. The only time that ever happened before was....last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let’s face it MG. This place is weird 24-7 Truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 A little cold today for a -NAO, look at how it peaks in a few days... I wouldn't be surprised if the ridge underneath of it doesn't verify as amplified, or positive anomaly, as this. That's one heck of a -PNA though, just as.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Fwiw the new edition of the Euro weeklies aren't terrible for Feb. The -NAO is there throughout, with a pretty typical Nina look out west. I will post one panel as a sample. Other periods hint at a bit more ridging in the east, but not what I would consider a strong signal or a 'torch'. I have definitely seen worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Fwiw the new edition of the Euro weeklies aren't terrible for Feb. The -NAO is there throughout, with a pretty typical Nina look out west. I will post one panel as a sample. Others periods hint at a bit more ridging in the east, but not what I would consider a strong signal or a 'torch'. I have definitely seen worse. At the very least with the trough out west we have cold somewhere on our continent. Even with blues over us this past month cold air has been MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: At the very least with the trough out west we have cold somewhere on our continent. Even with blues over us this past month cold air has been MIA. I could certainly envision a few cold air excursions for our area with that look. The big picture mean is just that, esp on an extended range forecast tool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: I could certainly envision a few cold air excursions for our area with that look. The big picture mean is just that, esp on an extended range forecast tool. Agree with you based on that H5 look. But the theme this winter has been to mute the cold shots so I’d air on that side when it comes to future cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The Hi Rez Euro has 3 hits out this way in the next 10 days. Nothing major. But I would take a snowy week and run at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 58 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fwiw the new edition of the Euro weeklies aren't terrible for Feb. The -NAO is there throughout, with a pretty typical Nina look out west. I will post one panel as a sample. Other periods hint at a bit more ridging in the east, but not what I would consider a strong signal or a 'torch'. I have definitely seen worse. It’s pretty much what I told Ralph to expect for Feb and totally acceptable Imo. There are 2 key differences between that and the failure of the blocking earlier. The first is simply time. It’s Feb. The waters are cooling. We’re starting with a colder base state. The second is the WPO. I still contend historically we have done better with the trough centered near the Aleutians not AK like that but this new pac base state is what it is. Look where the flow into our source regions in Canada is. Straight off the central pac firehose. This time the ridge west of the trough means the flow is off Siberia and across the Bering and AK. That’s not nearly as hostile to our source regions. The main pac firehose is directed across the south. The key there is the NAO. When it relaxes the SE ridge will flex. When the NAO goes through the periodic fluxes we’ve seen all cold season the ridge will be suppressed and the trough out west will cut under. But that is a mean of 50 members at a range where those details get washed out. Timing differences between when different members go through those fluctuations plus some members that probably lose the NAO completely and thus have a huge ridge in the east wash out attempts to show any trough in the east. But assuming the NAO remains negative it would be there at times and that’s a good look for Feb. if that’s how we roll the rest of winter I’ll take it. Weve snowed in much worse! ...of course recently we’ve not snowed in better so lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Hard to get anything other than -PNA in February lately. .. check this out well, 2018, 2019 and 2020 all had anomaly in same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It tends to find ways to snow in February, as long as the pattern isn't hostile, and esp if we can keep the west based block for much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The GFS insists that the Euro is wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The GFS insists that the Euro is wrong. I know where my money is. Look at the last 4 GFS runs for the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I just lost an inch of ice from 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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