North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 shrewd move - you are seeing way more snow down that way since you moved than we have seen here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yet folks have been concerned about our "good" period devolving into multiple cutters. lol GFS. Chances are better that these waves end up dampening/getting shoved too far south, as has been the tendency for awhile now. You would think one of them would finally be a flush hit though. WDI and all. I really do think as the ridge retrogrades and the trough backs into the east coast around the 28-30 somethings going to make it through the shred factory and amplify to the east coast. That still doesn’t mean we get a flush hit. But that’s been the best chance in this whole progression for a while and still looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks Dave I dont see the 04 part in my post though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It looks like we have better looking ridging towards Alaska as well. Maybe a brief reprieve from winter cancel after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: shrewd move - you are seeing way more snow down that way since you moved than we have seen here... Im sure paying the price now though lol. ITs been the same here as up there in your neck of the woods. 27.5" here since I moved in June 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, Yeoman said: The Canadien Clearly showing the blocking NE of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The good news is we can start using the other thread tomorrow to talk about this threat! It will be gone by 18z. And Randy will be inconsolable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: 12Z PARA-GFS in fantasy range has an historic snowstorm for the coastal areas of SC, on par with Christmas 1989. Takeaway from 12z suite...guidance is starting to see infiltration of arctic air into the pattern over the lower 48. It.may not be a huge window (end of Jan thru the first week of Feb??) before the PAC potentially goes back to crud. This is a good takeaway imo and definitely not a bad thing....unless of course you believe verbatim that N FL, GA, and SC get an historic snowstorm. That guidance again is just showing the cold depth finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Euro control is a DC flush hit 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Avdave said: Im sure paying the price now though lol. ITs been the same here as up there in your neck of the woods. 27.5" here since I moved in June 2016 In all seriousness, that number is well ahead of mine from June 2016 to the present here in Balt City. Wow, that's...that's disheartening as hell frankly. By the way, glad to hear from you in these parts again. Actually, your timing on that move was equisite - like a weather Costanza leaving after the Jan. 2016 high note - "Well, that's it for me! I'm out!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 EPS looks the best it has within 10 days. Can’t check what individual members show at the moment . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Takeaway from 12z suite...guidance is starting to see infiltration of arctic air into the pattern over the lower 48. It.may not be a huge window (end of Jan thru the first week of Feb??) before the PAC potentially goes back to crud. This is a good takeaway imo and definitely not a bad thing....unless of course you believe verbatim that N FL, GA, and SC get an historic snowstorm. That guidance again is just showing the cold depth finally. Wrt pac crud...if the blocking holds once the MJO moves out of 6 (assuming we don’t get some fooking 3 week standing wave there like last year) that trough in the pac NW should start to press east some under the block. It’s not a cold pattern but in February that’s not a shutout look. We would get a trough along the east coast and some handoff of energy between the two. Of course lately everything’s a shutout pattern so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: EPS looks the best it has within 10 days. Can’t check what individual members show at the moment . Snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I really do think as the ridge retrogrades and the trough backs into the east coast around the 28-30 somethings going to make it through the shred factory and amplify to the east coast. That still doesn’t mean we get a flush hit. But that’s been the best chance in this whole progression for a while and still looks like it. I agree. I haven't done more than glance at the op runs until today- waste of time imo esp in this pattern and in the day 8-10 range- but poring over the ens runs, I have never felt like a cutter was very likely to be the way we might fail next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I agree. I haven't done more than glance at the op runs until today- waste of time imo esp in this pattern and in the day 8-10 range- but poring over the ens runs, I have never felt like a cutter was very likely to be the way we might fail next week. Not snowing has always been the most likely way we fail. We have gotten quite skilled at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 WB EPS thru Day 10....hopefully will continue to improve as we go through the week and inside 10 days. Lot better than GEFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 No JMA love? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: In all seriousness, that number is well ahead of mine from June 2016 to the present here in Balt City. Wow, that's...that's disheartening as hell frankly. By the way, glad to hear from you in these parts again. Actually, your timing on that move was equisite - like a weather Costanza leaving after the Jan. 2016 high note - "Well, that's it for me! I'm out!" Sorry, you guys will make it up soon enough up there. Love the constanza line lol. timing wasnt bad at all , for a change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not snowing has always been the most likely way we fail. We have gotten quite skilled at that. Sad but true! Surprise events like January 25, 1985 and January 25, 2000 are the best! Something about the 25th of the first month and guess what? Looks like Jan 25 2021 may deliver something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 hours ago, Ji said: anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys Just a short 14 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Every possible scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Euro control was noice 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB EPS thru Day 10....hopefully will continue to improve as we go through the week and inside 10 days. Lot better than GEFS... EPS has been decently bullish for several runs now. GEPS has looked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 @CAPE gefs is either about to score its biggest coup ever or it’s off on one of its old school not a clue tangents. This is no time for America to start to get its act together. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Enjoy 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Enjoy Go back to where you belong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE gefs is either about to score its biggest coup ever or it’s off on one of its old school not a clue tangents. This is no time for America to start to get its act together. Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 13 hours ago, stormtracker said: looks like Euro caves toward GFS. America wins again. (for now) Just a short 13 hours ago 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not going to over react to one run but the trend the last 24 hours has been discouraging. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Trend broken after a short 12 hours? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts