Rhino16 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I’m expecting nothing more this winter in central va, yall up in northern va might have a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Couldn't be any worse right? Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Nah, IMO, last night's 0z GFS run was the worst it could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Actually, I agree. I (respectfully) disagree with him wrt modeling...but the yo-yo ing is annoying, but understandable. These things are run 4x per day, so they look as if they are waffling way more than usual. I’ve thought about this and I think it would be more helpful if past day 6 only ran once a day but that one run was a super ensemble that incorporated the initializations of all 4 interim runs to account for possible errors with initialization. One more accurate update a day would be more helpful then a bunch of mini ones. And cause us way less mental anguish. A Day 7+ Forecast doesn’t need to be updated more then once a day anyways. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Canadian similar with the northern vort outrunning the SW vort. Might be baby stepping today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Canadian similar with the northern vort outrunning the SW vort. Might be baby stepping today A compromise between the euro and gfs camps from a day ago. It’s coming out in pieces but they are spaced tighter then the euro had. Problem is if we don’t get enough separation between the waves it won’t work. It’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, WVclimo said: was nice knowing you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, WVclimo said: That would be awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That would be awful. It isn't even done at that point. 24+ hours of freezing rain with temps in the mid- to upper 20's and more than 1" QPF would definitely leave a mark. Glad it will change in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A compromise between the euro and gfs camps from a day ago. It’s coming out in pieces but they are spaced tighter then the euro had. Problem is if we don’t get enough separation between the waves it won’t work. It’s close. So, now what's the bad news? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: It isn't even done at that point. 24+ hours of freezing rain with temps in the mid- to upper 20's and more than 1" QPF would definitely leave a mark. Glad it will change in the coming week. Sure hope that never happens. You accumulate 3/4” of ice on trees and power lines it would be devastating. No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Para has a good amount of blue in our favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So, now what's the bad news? Lol it’s good overall. We knew the euro all alone was not going to be exactly right. This progression gives us a way way better chance then the fully phased idea the gfs was tossing around before. But it’s never easy. This solution is also better for the follow up wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 CMC snows on us somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 maybe last night was the rockbottom of the vally. Now comes the slow ascend @stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: CMC snows on us somehow. snow on snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Sure hope that never happens. You accumulate 3/4” of ice on trees and power lines it would be devastating. No thanks I measured close to that on 2/7/2018 and it was a hell of a mess. Brought down large trees all over our neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Primary is a bit more prominent/slightly north on the 0z mean, but still an acceptable transfer and overall outcome. There's no way we score with lows that far into the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 congrats @Ralph Wiggum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 CMC 240 storm is a work of art 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: congrats @Ralph Wiggum PSU fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There's no way we score with lows that far into the Great Lakes. Draw a line from about Paducah to Cleveland. Lows to the south of that line can deliver a good thump at the very least. North of that, I agree with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: PSU fringed. Hell even leesburg is sorta fringed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Para has a good amount of blue in our favored areas Has like 3 separate waves in 3 days. Snow to rain to rain to snow to snow. I’d take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: I am not sure what to believe now really. Isotherm said there was hope at the end of January . February's tendencies were always to head warmer , nobody really wants to look forward to March at that time I'm thinking of spring and summer activities. When I look back and read HM's older posts I was under the assumption that he thought any sudden stratospheric warming event would favor our region. but possibly I was mistaken. Here’s are only things we know: 1. The sun angle is increasing every day. 2. We are gaining 1-3 minutes of day light. 3. Ocean water temps are still above normal where they have been for the past 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That would be awful. Yeah. That would be a historic ice storm out this way for sure. Thank goodness it is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12Z PARA-GFS in fantasy range has an historic snowstorm for the coastal areas of SC, on par with Christmas 1989. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12Z PARA-GFS in fantasy range has an historic snowstorm for the coastal areas of SC, on par with Christmas 1989.What hour. That is a good sign overall Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: What hour. That is a good sign overall Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk lol 360-372 Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Our new GFS snows in Florida on groundhog day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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