Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 i knew blowing the Dec 15 storm would come back to bite us. Great storm for that time of the year but man it could of been 4x better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 this was 2 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: CMC is kind of like the para progression but just takes it more north and its a day later Cmc isn’t that bad Imo. It’s still 9 days away (especially if it’s the trailing wave). Cmc doesn’t have enough separation between waves to work. But it’s close. That wouldn’t take much adjustment. It’s not like the gfs that wants to drive a ridge to the North Pole and nuke the whole pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys We must have lost the good sun angle 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys Just now, Ji said: this was 2 days ago Yea but that was bone dry remember. We needed in between lol. I wouldn’t freak over a day 13 op run. If the ensembles go that way over the next couple days then yea....it’s going to depend on that ridge link up. If the gfs is right about a complete link of the mid and high latitude ridges like that it’s game over. But nothing else shows that and the gefs is skeptical of that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Para fringes me so it must be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Starting to lose interest to be honest. Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But nothing else shows that I thought the CMC was the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: At 12z cmc was the only op showing that. But ensembles had it and now the para at 18 and 0z. But if I said “wait it’s the next wave” earlier some would have had a fit so I just kept my mouth shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It's good DT left when he did cause his head would have exploded 17 times this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, Ji said: anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys There has to be a “winter”, for it to be over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 looks like Euro caves toward GFS. America wins again. (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: looks like Euro caves toward GFS. American wins again. Yup. It connects the ridge and that’s ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yup. It connects the ridge and that’s ballgame. This for the Day 9 thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: looks like Euro caves toward GFS. American wins again. If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east. And...then we have another problem in February, right? (Was asking about that yesterday...will we have to punt the month of Feb?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And...then we have another problem in February, right? (Was asking about that yesterday...will we have to punt the month of Feb?) Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok. I see...but for now, the rest of January looking like a shutout, I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I see...but for now, the rest of January looking like a shutout, I take it? I’m not going to over react to one run but the trend the last 24 hours has been discouraging. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not going to over react to one run but the trend the last 24 hours has been discouraging. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Same...and it's still in fantasy land. But even in fantasy land, the consistency is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 45 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same...and it's still in fantasy land. But even in fantasy land, the consistency is annoying. Well oddly enough the eps isn’t that bad. It does have a camp that trended north. But there is also a camp of good hits still and the snow mean increased slightly from 12z. And the signal for the day 11 threat I’ve liked got better. The pattern dies degrade by day 15 though but it’s not awful. The -NAO holds but we need the western trough to either back off or shift its. It’s kind of in the worst spot and offsetting the NAO by day 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Para fringes me so it must be right It certainly doesn't fringe you for 6z. It's still insistent on taking the initial first wave through as a somewhat sheared mess and then trailing up a more coherent system right behind it. Might be apparent on the GEFS too. Speaking of GEFS, it certainly has a fair bit less low pressures that cut for 6z compared to 0z. Hope that the trends there keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: A lot of the good ensembles in the Eps and gefs have that progression. That might be the best way here if that ridge is going to pump like that. A weak wave to knock it down then something behind. We need the trough to eject pieces to prevent the ridge from going ape. This progression is on the 6z para. It’s also on some of the 6z GEFS members. May be our best shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Not sure it’s as bleak as this thread reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS... hug P5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure it’s as bleak as this thread reads. EPS mean still looks like a mean slp track to our south. Hope that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: EPS mean still looks like a mean slp track to our south. Hope that holds. Primary is a bit more prominent/slightly north on the 0z mean, but still an acceptable transfer and overall outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Distilling down our issues this winter seem two fold to me. First, the northern stream has been extremely uncooperative. Either it’s suppressive, or it has phased with the southern stream in a poor position, or (as possibly in the case for next weekend) it fosters ridging ahead of a southern stream low. Now this is not that strange in a Nina, but usually something works out despite that base hostility. Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been. On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this, but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion. Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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