stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems like the faster the storm ejects out of the SW, the less of a chance there is for the SE ridge to pump up heights ahead of the storm? At least that's what it seems like given that solution compared to the GFS cutting. Hoping blocking can pull through, but as that Eric Webb tweet I posted earlier, that seems to be fleeting a bit Yes. We want that sw to get out of there faster and that block stronger. Shit, I wish it was like it was depicted a few days ago on the Euro. It would have been a Yeoman block of all time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 990L and twin 1030H to the north. that could be a thump to get excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: now hr 240 on the Euro...that looks interesting That look is definitely nice. Looks like it would lead to something that would make us all happen...but again...10 day mirage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 this is the one though! Great model runs today so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Need stronger blocking 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That look is definitely nice. Looks like it would lead to something that would make us all happen...but again...10 day mirage 2 blues in 10 days. Winter is back baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: this is the one though! Great model runs today so far! Who are you and what did you do with Ji!??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The last time we had -NAO in january was 2011 February: That February is a -AAM pattern, which would be weak at this point in La Nina because a warm push is coming in, and it's either to happen over enso or the Hemisphere. March-April will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 i mean its not prefect but you have a severe well placed NAO block...a great 50/50 low. High pressure. EPO isnt perfect but ive seen worse Let this storm happen and we will call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: The last time we had -NAO in january was 2011 That February is a -AAM pattern, which would be weak at this point in La Nina because a warm push is coming in, and it's either to happen over enso or the Hemisphere. March-April will be warm. (temperatures) @stormtracker please tell Chuck what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: yes. just need it a little further south by about 300 miles. I'm trying to figure out what the block actually blocked on that run. the primary made it into IL...the temps spiked to near 60 on hr 198. the HP retreated and was weak sauce to begin with. was that supposed to happen? It snows some from a storm that has a primary get to Minnesota with no true cold in front. That’s impressive. But a block isn’t a magic cure all. It can only work with the airmass under it and the upstream flow has an effect. In this case both those other factors are wrong. There is a huge trough out west and no cold in the east so up pops a huge SE ridge. Plus the block is just getting into prime position. This is why I after that wave would be better. Cold should bleed east more once there actually is cold in N America again and the block will grow in influence as it retrogrades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is the one though! Great model runs today so far! You always fall for this. No wonder you're a human pendulum here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is the one though! Great model runs today so far! Is this the after meds Ji? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: You always fall for this. No wonder you're a human pendulum here. i mean it kind of falls into the progression that PSU has talked about. That its the next one after the next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south. I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either. Every low for the past month has ended up south of where it was modeled at range. No reason to think this one won’t also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i mean it kind of falls into the progression that PSU has talked about. That its the next one after the next one Definitely no shade at PSU, but it's always the next one on the Euro. I'm dumping on the model, not PSU. I think he's likely right with the period to watch. But you know what happens with Euro 10 day threats. You know it's not going to look like this tonight at 0z and then you'll be crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely no shade at PSU, but it's always the next one on the Euro. I'm dumping on the model, not PSU. I think he's likely right with the period to watch. But you know what happens with Euro 10 day threats. You know it's not going to look like this tonight at 0z and then you'll be crushed. You two need to go to therapy together. I hope the proper avatar with a mask is ready for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps looks to favor more ns interaction and a stronger primary by 156 . Looking at h5 Big cluster of lps that take it through the great lakes, still a cluster of weaker waves that take the lp near our latitude though, but it's certainly not the favored camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I believe this is a significant shift North on the ensembles for the 22 nd and 23 rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WB 12Z EPS thru late next week.... holding on by a thread. The GEFS and Canadian are worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 gonna bake everyone alive in a solar flare lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Impressive precip signal for the PSU v2 storm, especially for 12 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS. Maybe a hybrid system, I could envision an evolution towards a lower latitude grouping of lows as we near the period 26 th to the 29 th. Would be nice to see stronger Highs up in Western Canada to funnel the colder air SE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 So the -NAO/cold wave burns out in Europe, how do we not go from the SW after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: So the -NAO/cold wave burns out in Europe, how do we not go from the SW after that? Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. I blame cow farts myself 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. one more time for us laymen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: one more time for us laymen To quote from "Hardware Wars" (which is a great parody of the original "Star Wars")... You pull the plug!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: i mean it kind of falls into the progression that PSU has talked about. That its the next one after the next one Nah man, it's the one after that one. And the "real" storm is the next one after the next one after the next one. Winter 2023, it's gonna be ridic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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