Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I guess it's a chicken/egg thing but the biggest culprit in this is the central PAC ridge blob with the full lat trof centered on the West Coast. Those full lat features are wreaking havoc downstream. If the -NAO wasn't there we would have a severe SER. We r lucky to even have a threat of any frozen at all with that look out West. 

@CAPE what has been the time frame for the EPS caving to the GEFS this season? Between 156-180 hrs? IIRC it was you that was tracking this. Maybe was @psuhoffman?

As pointed out by tombo on another forum relating to my post. Issue is with the block Rotating kind of in a non ideal fashion. It’s going from North to South instead of a E-W track. You then get HP squeezed from the SE ridge extending to the block. We could still get WAA snows, but this could be a problem for an all snow event.  It’s still the best look we’ve had in a while and many days out. This 00z trend though is an issue to keep an eye on. 
 

With a normal block you would have pinched off lower heights near the lakes and better confluence  out ahead of the main low.

 

[Ji]

As pointed out by tombo on another forum relating to my post. Issue is with the block Rotating kind of in a non ideal fashion. It’s going from North to South instead of a E-W track. You then get HP squeezed from the SE ridge extending to the block. We could still get WAA snows, but this could be a problem for an all snow event.  It’s still the best look we’ve had in a while and many days out. This 00z trend though is an issue to keep an eye on. 
 
With a normal block you would have pinched off lower heights near the lakes and better confluence  out ahead of the main low.
 

Yea it's over

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[frd]

@poolz1

 

@MattHugo81

·

5h

 

This needs watching...it's not been the 'cleanest' of SSW's so far this winter but has been the case for weeks the strat vortex is well and truly disrupted and further warmings and potential splits remain possible which could still influence late winter. Late Jan a key period...

 

 

 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

As pointed out by tombo on another forum relating to my post. Issue is with the block Rotating kind of in a non ideal fashion. It’s going from North to South instead of a E-W track. You then get HP squeezed from the SE ridge extending to the block. We could still get WAA snows, but this could be a problem for an all snow event.  It’s still the best look we’ve had in a while and many days out. This 00z trend though is an issue to keep an eye on. 
 

With a normal block you would have pinched off lower heights near the lakes and better confluence  out ahead of the main low.

 

It is a "normal" block though. All you are seeing there is a temporary coupling with the SER as the block retrogrades sw. The ridging there is ofc a function of the -PNA. This connection is brief, and then the ridge gets suppressed. Whether any ridging out in front is significant enough to have (negative)impacts on the evolving storm is unknown, but right now the answer seems to be no on the EPS.

[JakkelWx]

Both the EPS and the GEFS are trending towards less -EPO in the LR. It could just as easily reverse but...

[Chris78]

6 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty great precip signature, now within 8 1/2 days 

lp clusters 

Some pretty great hits in there, the best snow mean since the fluke 12z run yesterday. 

That precip signature doesn't scream cutter to me.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is a "normal" block though. All you are seeing there is a temporary coupling with the SER as the block retrogrades sw. The ridging there is ofc a function of the -PNA. This connection is brief, and then the ridge gets suppressed. Whether any ridging out in front is significant enough to have (negative)impacts on the evolving storm is unknown, but right now the answer seems to be no on the EPS.

For the love of everything sacred in this world, can the GEFS please  cave to the EPS just this one time this season? 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Both the EPS and the GEFS are trending towards less -EPO in the LR. It could just as easily reverse but...

Looks better on the 6z GEFS. The 0z run had it heading positive at the end of the run. 

[Chris78]

Looking through the individual members on the eps I would say alot of them do not agree with the OP. 

With being 8+ days out you'll always get some scattershot but there were a nice mix of flush hits and southern hits with DC on the northern fringe. 

I really liked seeing those southern hits mixed in if we are worried about a cutter that gets to Michagan.

 

[frd]

24 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Both the EPS and the GEFS are trending towards less -EPO in the LR. It could just as easily reverse but...

BAMWX will claim they saw this first.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

They sort of already are

 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

They sort of already are

 

Still say we need Pac help and we need a cold source region.  Maybe the models simply can't handle the temps in the long range.  Many - EPO  calls have failed.  I still believe there is potential. But. the threat windows have been pushed back for one reason or another. There is no denying that. Really feel you need to be 72 hours out from modeled snow to feel confident these days. Another possibility is that the -EPO may look better ( at long leads ) in a few days from now.  I wouldn't hold any model forecast to be the real outcome regardless of what it shows.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was thinking about the PNA and how it’s been positive for a while now. What do we have to show for it? Nothing. The last time it was near zero we got our only storm a couple of days later. Who’s to say that if trends near zero or neg it might allow some energy to enter at a low latitude and then our super block might squeeze it enough to force it south of us or run a cutter into some cad.

[cbmclean]

Anyone know what the Pacific jet is up to?  Last I saw it was forecast to significantly retract, which is crucial to our hopes for cold.

[aldie 22]

Clearly many people's perception of what certain indices do is not accurate...but you all keep on keepin on

[Ji]

Clearly many people's perception of what certain indices do is not accurate...but you all keep on keepin on

The only indices we really need are cold and precipitation

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[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It is a "normal" block though. All you are seeing there is a temporary coupling with the SER as the block retrogrades sw. The ridging there is ofc a function of the -PNA. This connection is brief, and then the ridge gets suppressed. Whether any ridging out in front is significant enough to have (negative)impacts on the evolving storm is unknown, but right now the answer seems to be no on the EPS.

I do think it’s a valid concern though. The blocking is centered a little far SW and has been trending further south recently. That would actually be fine if we didn’t have a deep western trough, but we do and there will be a mid level response to pump a ridge east of it. The trend the last 24 hours across all guidance is for the blocking ridge and the mid latitude ridge to link up and that wrecks the confluence under the block. If they link we essentially end up with a full latitude ridge and the storm will cut.  
 

That trend is there across ALL guidance even the EPS. The just has not gone all the way to a full link like the gfs and cmc...yet.  But it’s there...

On the eps it hasn’t yet become fatal to our chances but it was more pronounced on the op and it’s trending the wrong way.  If that trend continues it will be a problem. 
 

The good news is we’re still at a range where details will jump around and change.  This could reverse today. But the possibility the mid end high latitude ridge links is a serious threat to our snow chances from that wave. 

[cbmclean]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do think it’s a valid concern though. The blocking is centered a little far SW and has been trending further south recently. That would actually be fine if we didn’t have a deep western trough, but we do and there will be a mid level response to pump a ridge east of it. The trend the last 24 hours across all guidance is for the blocking ridge and the mid latitude ridge to link up and that wrecks the confluence under the block. If they link we essentially end up with a full latitude ridge and the storm will cut.  
 

That trend is there across ALL guidance even the EPS. The just has not gone all the way to a full link like the gfs and cmc...yet.  But it’s there...

 

On the eps it hasn’t yet become fatal to our chances but it was more pronounced on the op and it’s trending the wrong way.  If that trend continues it will be a problem. 
 

The good news is we’re still at a range where details will jump around and change.  This could reverse today. But the possibility the mid end high latitude ridge links is a serious threat to our snow chances from that wave. 

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

[LP08]

Gfs has the primary near Lake Michigan.  Some frozen to start.

[psuhoffman]

@frd the epo goes negative from day 4-10. That should be sufficient to get cold into the pattern but it gets muted by mid latitude warmth.  But what’s the real issue here?  Let’s go through the variants.  We’ve had an excellent high latitude pattern all winter.  We had a pna ridge with eastern trough for most of the last 6 weeks but it didn’t matter because there wasn’t enough COLD in the trough. The trough west of the pna was blasting WARMTH over the top and the trough under it couldn’t create enough mid latitude cold domestically.  Now the pna is retrograding into an epo ridge. But that dumps a huge trough into the west (which has been what happens during an epo ridge in the current pacific base state the last several years). Just throwing that out there for everyone crying for epo help!  That trough out west pumps a ridge and too much WARMTH gets added by the TNH pattern out of the gulf and we get too much ridge in the central US.  After that the ridge retrogrades to a WPO ridge and the trough pulls back into the epo region and we will go back to pac puke WARMTH flooding across eventually.  So where do you want the ridge/trough axis in the pacific?  There isn’t going to be a ridge across the whole pac with a huge trough across the whole N American continent. But wherever you put the trough in the pacific to the east of it will be a ridge that taps all that WARMTH and blasts it north towards N America.  Everyone keeps saying we need the pac to improve but we’ve tried every pac ridge trough axis. So long as the pac is a raging ball of fire with a 200kt screaming jet what configuration do you think works?  
 

That all said @stormtracker is going to ban me probably, but I said a few days ago and still think our “best” chance at something is the 3rd wave in the progression (the one around the 30). 

As everything retrogrades the ridge there has pulled back enough that we could get something to amplify along the east coast.  It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

Read the end of my post to Frd 

[stormtracker]

GFS says we’re going to lose.  Again. Another totally different h5 look.  

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS says we’re going to lose.  Again. Another totally different h5 look.  

It’s not even close.  I think even Buffalo rains with this run. 

[dallen7908]

12 UT GFS: Primary reaches Manitowoc at hour 192.  Wintry precipitation yet to reach MBY.  Cold air moving make that running away. Hour 198, rain.  Hopefully, we pick up an inch or two between 193 and 194  I toss.  It's still ensemble range. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS says we’re going to lose.  Again. Another totally different h5 look.  

Unfortunately it’s not totally different it’s simply a continuation of the trend at h5 and what the natural effect of that is. 
This 24 hours ago was a block look...

This is a full latitude ridge...

the high latitude ridge does us no good if it links up with the mid latitude ridge. What makes it a “block” is the westerly flow under the ridge. If it links it just becomes a HUGE ridge. 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately it’s not totally different it’s simply a continuation of the trend at h5 and what the natural effect of that is. 
This 24 hours ago was a block look...

This is a full latitude ridge...

the high latitude ridge does us no good if it links up with the mid latitude ridge. What makes it a “block” is the westerly flow under the ridge. If it links it just becomes a HUGE ridge. 

@psuhoffman, just curious what would you say the odds are that DCA measures 1” of snow in January from this point?

[frd]

@psuhoffman great post above and I agree near the 29 th is the line in the sand.  There is potential there.  

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd the epo goes negative from day 4-10. That should be sufficient to get cold into the pattern but it gets muted by mid latitude warmth.  But what’s the real issue here?  Let’s go through the variants.  We’ve had an excellent high latitude pattern all winter.  We had a pna ridge with eastern trough for most of the last 6 weeks but it didn’t matter because there wasn’t enough COLD in the trough. The trough west of the pna was blasting WARMTH over the top and the trough under it couldn’t create enough mid latitude cold domestically.  Now the pna is retrograding into an epo ridge. But that dumps a huge trough into the west (which has been what happens during an epo ridge in the current pacific base state the last several years). Just throwing that out there for everyone crying for epo help!  That trough out west pumps a ridge and too much WARMTH gets added by the TNH pattern out of the gulf and we get too much ridge in the central US.  After that the ridge retrogrades to a WPO ridge and the trough pulls back into the epo region and we will go back to pac puke WARMTH flooding across eventually.  So where do you want the ridge/trough axis in the pacific?  There isn’t going to be a ridge across the whole pac with a huge trough across the whole N American continent. But wherever you put the trough in the pacific to the east of it will be a ridge that taps all that WARMTH and blasts it north towards N America.  Everyone keeps saying we need the pac to improve but we’ve tried every pac ridge trough axis. So long as the pac is a raging ball of fire with a 200kt screaming jet what configuration do you think works?  
 

That all said @stormtracker is going to ban me probably, but I said a few days ago and still think our “best” chance at something is the 3rd wave in the progression (the one around the 30). 
 

As everything retrogrades the ridge there has pulled back enough that we could get something to amplify along the east coast.  It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

The one that works apparently cannot be sustained for long enough to do us any good, given the inherent base state, and I don't mean just the Nina.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

Wonder if we recycle the pattern and it actually produces possibly later in February even though many have written February off

[frd]

Just now, CAPE said:

The one that works apparently cannot be sustained for long enough to do us any good, given the inherent base state, and I don't mean just the Nina.

As you are aware some claim the Nina is a non-player compared to the new regime that has set up over the past few years. Referring to the new base state.