Chris78 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS, Friday on life support but not dead yet, a few flush hits and a few to our south. Which ones have snow from Monday? Can you isolate the end of the week threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Today is the start of Spring.. no going back. I knew it standing outside today in the flurries.. today is the start of Spring. Not sure if you knew this but you make this process of tracking winter fails less fun...if that’s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: very good read Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/19/friday-funny-nature-makes-a-mockery-of-month-ahead-model-forecasts/ Please do not post this without cross-checking its sources. While short-range climate forecasts possess lower (but positive!) skill, trying to equivocate these with GCMs is a faulty argument on several levels and requires a rebutting that would derail this thread. 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Icon still likes next Friday 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 ICON = ICANDY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 ICON = ICANDYGfs=Shortwave shredder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 4 hours ago, BristowWx said: Not sure if you knew this but you make this process of tracking winter fails less fun...if that’s possible. embrace the warmth - with vaccines ramping up, the warmth coming.. this might be one of the most amazing summers in our country's history. can you even imagine all the pent up demand just to do stuff with other people? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON = ICANDY Gfs=Shortwave shredder Do I have this game right? JI = Thread Killer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON = ICANDY Gfs=Shortwave shredder given the seasonal trend...that is very likely how this ends. All our storms that took a favorable track (and yea they did it just ended up too warm anyways) started out as cutters at this range and trended south to the point they tracked under us...then ended up too warm anyways but still... Past results do NOT guarantee anything and trends can change anytime...but seasonal trend would argue this gets shredded and suppressed if its already showing as such at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There are 3 waves in close proximity from Thursday to Monday next week. They will all influence each other. I have no confidence in any solution but there is a decent chance one clips us. It wouldn’t shock me if it ends up the 3rd one that right now looks like an amped up cutter given seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: given the seasonal trend...that is very likely how this ends. All our storms that took a favorable track (and yea they did it just ended up too warm anyways) started out as cutters at this range and trended south to the point they tracked under us...then ended up too warm anyways but still... Past results do NOT guarantee anything and trends can change anytime...but seasonal trend would argue this gets shredded and suppressed if its already showing as such at this range. 0z EPS is a sheared out suppressed wave. Then the suppressive NS energy moves out, east coast ridges, while the trough digs out west. The next wave looks healthy, but warm. Still time for it to trend better I suppose, but the currently advertised look up top says not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 6Z EPS trends stronger with late week wave but now we need some latitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 10 hours ago, pazzo83 said: embrace the warmth - with vaccines ramping up, the warmth coming.. this might be one of the most amazing summers in our country's history. can you even imagine all the pent up demand just to do stuff with other people? 2021 has the potential to be one of the best years of my life. I'm hoping it's the year I get engaged. As for the weather, March is looking really damn warm especially in the first week. If only last spring had that warmth when the lockdowns were just getting started... 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Only 9 months until Nov. now that is something to smile about. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 I'm amazed at this 15-day period of -PNA,+EPO coming up. The AO and NAO might also skew positive I think because of the swing of what has happened lately/trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Only 9 months until Nov. now that is something to smile about. 7.5 months until October! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 There is potential temperature energy here that will not be filled, that will be at another time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 12Z GFS has a bonafide snowstorm from Richmond to the Tidewater on Friday morning, after temps in the low 60's on Thursday in that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 06z GFS ensembles are trying to build a -NAO at Days 14-15, but I think that is to counter the Polar Vortex setting up over Alaska and the Bering Straight. I have also seen this bias with the last few Stratosphere warmings in time, they build on long range models, but dampen in closer time. Despite all the data/statistics/analogs I have posted about a -NAO March, I think the 33month trend is going to rule here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Fozz said: 2021 has the potential to be one of the best years of my life. I'm hoping it's the year I get engaged. As for the weather, March is looking really damn warm especially in the first week. If only last spring had that warmth when the lockdowns were just getting started... Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: 12Z GFS has a bonafide snowstorm from Richmond to the Tidewater on Friday morning, after temps in the low 60's on Thursday in that area. Right where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 56 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs at 144 with alot of good looks in the individuals for late week Definitely a step towards the 6z Eps . Very similar now at h5 Not a bad signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not a bad signal. That should be just enough to finally fill the potential temperature energy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: There is potential temperature energy here that will not be filled, that will be at another time. Right where we want it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 winter looks dead....i dont see how we recover from this? its pretty much march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: winter looks dead....i dont see how we recover from this? its pretty much march 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 WB EPS Control in long range (March 3) throws a bone. My gut says there will be one more shot before it’s over... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 WB 0Z GFS PARA also has a storm in the long range...( Day 9-10 period.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Ji said: winter looks dead....i dont see how we recover from this? its pretty much march Seriously? We can already see that this weeks warm up, and likely the one after that will be short lived and could very well have snow chances on either side of them. Winter is not over. Not here, and not for your area either, IMO. Some of our best all time snows have occurred during volatile patterns. We always don’t need a -NAO/-AO/-EPO/+PNA pattern to get a biggie - or any snowstorm for that matter. In fact, this area does just fine in a neutral, and even slightly positive NAO state. March will come in like a lion for many of us in this forum. 80s in Florida and over the gulf, meet arctic air. Will there be some days in the 40s and 50s? Yes. 100%. There’s nothing to lock in deep arctic air long term. However, There will be plenty of cold shots coming into the plains/northeast, and plenty of systems developing and tracking through an active SJS. We will need a few pieces to fall into place - timing of cold air and a storm - SE ridge relaxing a bit and a temporary neutral or PNA , but that’s perfectly okay. I know @psuhoffman @Bob Chill and @clskinsfan could probably list off a good number of second half of season storms that occurred during less than ideal patterns ie: +NAO +AO patterns. I actually that think our area’s propensity to be within 50-100 miles of the transition zone will pay off big time in the next few weeks. Stay strong, @Ji I know it’s been a tough winter. Your latitude has been extremely unlucky for a multitude of reasons. But don’t fret. We’ve got this. Channel your inner @WinterWxLuvr and get on the train!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS Control in long range (March 3) throws a bone. My gut says there will be one more shot before it’s over... It ain’t over for sure! Actually think this depicted storm will be our second to last shot at a biggie. There will likely be another shot at a big storm after the pattern reloads in mid March (The last hurrah). Some long range guidance is hinting at another attempt at high latitude blocking around the March 14th timeframe. Will it be tough? Yep. Will it be 40-50, maybe even touch 60 some days over the next 4-6 weeks? Yep. But there’s plenty of evidence that we will have at least 2 more windows of opportunity - including a Miller A meeting a nicely timed cold shot mid month. I don’t see anything in the EPS GEFS or EC that screams that the kiss of death for winter is upon us. Not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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