Dabuckeyes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Weird models.. we have a super powerful warm pattern coming up in the 6-10 day. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaches 70 one day near DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 It’s important to keep the views coming. We can reach a half a million before we have to crest the next one. About 25 views per day per person should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. I think your idea of the lack of a temperature gradient plays into it too. Whether it's the PAC torch lingering from November or warm SSTs in the Atlantic, we really haven't had much of a major fluctuation in temperatures. No temps in the 60s whatsoever (not many days peaking over 50 either), but not many subfreezing highs either. The entire period from Jan 15 to Feb 15 was basically as climo as you could manage in a winter. Now that we actually have a major temp gradient into the country now, we're finding ourselves in a potential snowy setup in a rather imperfect pattern. This is closer to banter/speculation now, but I've wondered how the major loss of snowpack plays into things too. Not as of recently, but with how rapidly the Dec 16-17 snowpack melted off with the Christmas Eve deluge. That basically wiped the 30"+ snowpack away for the areas that got that big of a snowfall. Those same areas would've gotten a snowpack efresher with the Jan 3 system, but I just remember the potential pattern change being delayed shortly after the rainstorm came into range with it being modeled to erase that snowpack. Im not too informed on how that would've impacted January, and I imagine it wouldn't have done much, but surely losing that square mileage of snowpack factored into the lack of any major temperature gradient in the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I can't believe we have this PNA pattern in the Pacific for the storm, but look at the -AO exiting. I wonder what February snowstorms look like.. Check out this coming after though (Pacific-Alaska) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB 12Z PARA...more chances ahead!? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA...more chances ahead!? Do it Will! Bring home the goods. Poor short pump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 euro has some snow monday. Looks similar to CMC. PARA looks pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 Z Euro has the se ridge building at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Anyweather said: 12 Z Euro has the se ridge building at the end of the run. The models also had it BUILT for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA...more chances ahead!? I swear that's the same map I've seen all winter. Sitting at about 6" of slop for the season lol 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I swear that's the same map I've seen all winter. Sitting at about 6" of slop for the season lol Yup. 18.7 has been a constant over my area. Porn for sure...not real but fun to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 How’s Monday looking? We usually do well when a low pressure tracks through northern Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: How’s Monday looking? We usually do well when a low pressure tracks through northern Michigan. Seasonal trend is squash storms south and east. Plenty of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 WB 6z PARA....actually Next Friday is starting to look interesting... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ^ GFS and Euro look somewhat similar in that range, as well. I'll take one more shot at snow and then I'd like to put a bullet into the head of this winter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 18 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA...more chances ahead!? The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time. As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: ^ GFS and Euro look somewhat similar in that range, as well. I'll take one more shot at snow and then I'd like to put a bullet into the head of this winter. I was just looking at next Friday as well. Let’s do this!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, frd said: The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time. As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze. EURO has it too...don’t give up quite yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Man, I nailed this storm. Let that be lesson, when the Pacific is so unfavorable, it doesn't snow.. indexes rule sometimes in some setups. The coming warm up was a sign, and we don't get storms coming out of -AO, not -NAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Man, I nailed this storm. Let that be lesson, when the Pacific is so unfavorable, it doesn't snow.. indexes rule sometimes in some setups. The coming warm up was a sign, and we don't get storms coming out of -AO, not -NAO. Cool 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 how we lookin in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z PARA....actually Next Friday is starting to look interesting... Completely trustworthy.... didn't the Para give us 4-8" today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: Completely trustworthy.... didn't the Para give us 4-8" today? Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. As for the EPS. it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ok. Time for the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, frd said: Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. As for the EPS. it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off. the EPS is like the old NAM. Take whatever it gives you and divide it in half...and then cut that in half again on the 6z run before gametime 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 hours ago, T. August said: how we lookin in here Think of this as the other panic room. Just a slower burn with less banter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok. Time for the next one Only models I’m hanging my hat on are the deadly GFS and GFS PARA brothers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pretty much every day is 50 or above in D.C after the 22nd on TWC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Pretty much every day is 50 or above in D.C after the 22nd on TWC They predicted 5-8" for DC today. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Surely we have one more chance to fail this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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