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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs has Snow to ice to rain/dry slot even with the  primary out by Chicago.

GFS does not have the proper physics to handle this upcoming complex weather evolution. Like CAPE said,  the model will eventually react to the block and the press of the baroclinic zone. 

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18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Seems like the models are hinting at another opportunity around the end of the month. 

Gfs has Snow to ice to rain/dry slot even with the  primary out by Chicago.

 

Those typically don’t work. Precip is too weak here. But with this blocking who knows.

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10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Did you consider anything else, or did you arrive at this conclusion by glancing at a single h5 height panel? There are some pretty significant changes depicted between now and that period, which you aren't going to see on that h5 mean.

I checked h5 and vort  panels. I also zoomed out to include all of northern hem to see epo, NAO, west pac, and SER. Didn’t think think the overnight runs were very inspiring.

10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That is not a zonal flow look on a smoothed LR means at 354hrs as posted. 

Yes it is. Or pretty close to it. Flow is pretty west to east. Here’s an educational graphic for you

image.thumb.gif.5ae98c878e665fc5bbbf38814b782d33.gif

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10 hours ago, Round Hill WX said:

FWIW at 354 hours, I agree with you. There is a hint at a inter-mountain west ridge that could spawn a NS LP to amplify over the Plains. However, that west-based -NAO will destroy anything coming east. Also, the Gulf and Atlantic moisture supply is shut off. Totally NS dominate. 
 

1937795D-4619-4CA6-8889-6F178D7540D9.png

Agreed. You can see the inter mountain ridge here better at 250, but if we’re talking entry point on the west coast and exit on the east coast it’s fairly zonal, with the caveat of a northern dominant flow. Not saying all panels are like that but that’s what I saw at h5 and 250 when I looked at the 6z gfs

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs.  Decently chilly for days 7 - 14.  Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty.

 

image.png.1211b6469ea6e51065fe726b7e3d86a0.png

almost 3 days of freezing or below, Id take that.  We need to get the ground cold if we want any of the potential frozen to stick around

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Another run ...another  frozen hit . And most importantly the storm is still there :popcorn:

Yep Agree.  That run taken verbatim was an unmitigated disaster for almost everyone south of you. Let’s see what changes next run but I am encouraged.  

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I’m a big fan of Larry Cosgrove. If this...or @psuhoffman doesn’t have you fired up for the next few weeks....

 

“I realize that there is a huge disparity between what some of the longer term modeling is showing for temperatures, and my analog projections. If you believe the CFS and ECMWF panels, none of the codler regimes showing up in late January will stick around in February. But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play.
 
Realize that the potential storm for January 24 - 28 is a very big deal in the outline for February! The event would set a template of sorts, with continued blocking around Baffin Island, helping to set up a recurrent chance for Nor'easter type cyclones (both Middle A and B variety. Cold drainage would be made easy by ridging that sets up along the West Coast and nearer to the North Pole. Curiously, the analog platform has the eastern two-thirds of North America about as cold as what Europe has been recently. An upper low centered roughly over Lake Superior and into central/southern Ontario would create happiness to snow and cold enthusiasts, quite possible through March as well.
 
Note that a) hemisphere snow cover has expanded greatly, and b) the splitting of the 10MB circumpolar vortex has continued with ridging in far northern Canada. If you project on past modeling of stratospheric temperature, the potential is there for occasional cross-polar flow. So whereas Siberia is the coldest source region now, drainage may help to reform the cAk "motherlode" into Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories. I think it is safe to say that snow and ice potential will be higher east of the Rocky Mountains, and that colder days are upon us.
 
Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts.
 
Sleep well tonight”
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