blizzardmeiser Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 10:33 PM, stormtracker said: Good thing we are 200+ hour out. Looks like we have something to track at least Expand 8 days to track it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:06 PM, Chris78 said: Gfs has Snow to ice to rain/dry slot even with the primary out by Chicago. Expand GFS does not have the proper physics to handle this upcoming complex weather evolution. Like CAPE said, the model will eventually react to the block and the press of the baroclinic zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:06 PM, Chris78 said: Seems like the models are hinting at another opportunity around the end of the month. Gfs has Snow to ice to rain/dry slot even with the primary out by Chicago. Expand Those typically don’t work. Precip is too weak here. But with this blocking who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs. Decently chilly for days 7 - 14. Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I’m not comparing the setups, but I thought the vort looked very similar to an underrated Philly storm. Jan 2011. Heaviest snow I’d here until March 18. gfs and 2011 both had these angry little closed shortwaves. It’ll be different in 6 hours, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It’s still rolling in, but GEFS looks pretty good for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS, about the same. Hope for P2!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:29 PM, jaydreb said: It’s still rolling in, but GEFS looks pretty good for this far out. Expand Great QPF mean for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:33 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS, about the same. Hope for P2!!! Expand Not as good as EPS but most members have the storm in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 18z para goes full on suppressed, cutter, suppressed, cutter. Warm rain for the D9 threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:54 PM, WxUSAF said: 18z para goes full on suppressed, cutter, suppressed, cutter. Warm rain for the D9 threat.That model is broken. It's not ready for the big leagues. Old Para was so much better Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 12:03 AM, Ji said: That model is broken. It's not ready for the big leagues. Old Para was so much better Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Expand Wait isn't the "old Para" the current GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 1:14 PM, CAPE said: Did you consider anything else, or did you arrive at this conclusion by glancing at a single h5 height panel? There are some pretty significant changes depicted between now and that period, which you aren't going to see on that h5 mean. Expand I checked h5 and vort panels. I also zoomed out to include all of northern hem to see epo, NAO, west pac, and SER. Didn’t think think the overnight runs were very inspiring. On 1/16/2021 at 1:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: That is not a zonal flow look on a smoothed LR means at 354hrs as posted. Expand Yes it is. Or pretty close to it. Flow is pretty west to east. Here’s an educational graphic for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 2:01 PM, Round Hill WX said: FWIW at 354 hours, I agree with you. There is a hint at a inter-mountain west ridge that could spawn a NS LP to amplify over the Plains. However, that west-based -NAO will destroy anything coming east. Also, the Gulf and Atlantic moisture supply is shut off. Totally NS dominate. Expand Agreed. You can see the inter mountain ridge here better at 250, but if we’re talking entry point on the west coast and exit on the east coast it’s fairly zonal, with the caveat of a northern dominant flow. Not saying all panels are like that but that’s what I saw at h5 and 250 when I looked at the 6z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 @WxUSAF @CAPE @frd how unlucky can we be with this look lol. 7 day 850 temp anomaly 7 day precip anomaly Same pattern on eps If this doesn’t work I’m out of ideas 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 12:32 AM, psuhoffman said: Same pattern on eps If this doesn’t work I’m out of ideas Expand If we don't get something meaningful out of this then we may have to start sacrificing bunnies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS....25th through February 1st is looking good...let’s hope it continues to improve over the next week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 12:47 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand He is not alone. 2 days prior to this time stamp looks enticing on the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 11:26 PM, cbmclean said: I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs. Decently chilly for days 7 - 14. Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty. Expand almost 3 days of freezing or below, Id take that. We need to get the ground cold if we want any of the potential frozen to stick around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 10:42 PM, losetoa6 said: Another run ...another frozen hit . And most importantly the storm is still there Expand Yep Agree. That run taken verbatim was an unmitigated disaster for almost everyone south of you. Let’s see what changes next run but I am encouraged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Icon with a little snow to start on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I’m a big fan of Larry Cosgrove. If this...or @psuhoffman doesn’t have you fired up for the next few weeks.... “I realize that there is a huge disparity between what some of the longer term modeling is showing for temperatures, and my analog projections. If you believe the CFS and ECMWF panels, none of the codler regimes showing up in late January will stick around in February. But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. Realize that the potential storm for January 24 - 28 is a very big deal in the outline for February! The event would set a template of sorts, with continued blocking around Baffin Island, helping to set up a recurrent chance for Nor'easter type cyclones (both Middle A and B variety. Cold drainage would be made easy by ridging that sets up along the West Coast and nearer to the North Pole. Curiously, the analog platform has the eastern two-thirds of North America about as cold as what Europe has been recently. An upper low centered roughly over Lake Superior and into central/southern Ontario would create happiness to snow and cold enthusiasts, quite possible through March as well. Note that a) hemisphere snow cover has expanded greatly, and b) the splitting of the 10MB circumpolar vortex has continued with ridging in far northern Canada. If you project on past modeling of stratospheric temperature, the potential is there for occasional cross-polar flow. So whereas Siberia is the coldest source region now, drainage may help to reform the cAk "motherlode" into Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories. I think it is safe to say that snow and ice potential will be higher east of the Rocky Mountains, and that colder days are upon us. Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Sleep well tonight” 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 We get screwed on the 00z GFS. The low is farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Sweet rainstorm on the GFS for the day 8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 The GFS is yeeesh. It’s just an op run at range though. Let’s wait for ensembles and Euro before freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 4:28 AM, LP08 said: Sweet rainstorm on the GFS for the day 8 storm. Expand Wow. Whodda thunk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 200 hr + folks. It's going to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Our biggest battle has been actually getting storms within day 7 without them turning into a shredded mess on the models.. not worried about a day 9 model showing a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we get a snowstorm, it won’t be modeled more than 3 days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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