Derecho! Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: The 12k NAM output for here matches February 14, 2007. 3-6" of snow then 3" of sleet before a quarter-inch of freezing rain. That one was one of the most impactful winter storms I've seen here. Only time I could walk on top of snowpack without breaking through. Just a surreal scene. 1993 Storm of the Century I was in New Jersey. I could JUMP UP AND DOWN on the ice without breaking through to the snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 look at the lift in the DGZ on that NAM 3k 60h sounding at DCA... that would be epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I can remember sliding down my yard with the 93 ice storm. This one would be just as bad. 3 inches of concrete. I remember visiting my uncle who lived on the side of the ridge that runs along the WV VA border just south of Harpers Ferry during one of the ice storms in 1994 and sledding down the roads watch we’re impassible with the old school wood/metal sleds. We went for miles at definitely unsafe speeds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 was looking at the earlier runs and it seemed like the nam was trying to phase early with that ns energy. that might have been why there was such a large plume of moisture out ahead of the system and/or just a response to the convection down south. the precip shield looked more like a cutter than even an apps runner. either way, it's not common to have gulf moisture overruning temps in the mid 20s here. that's a pretty good setup and usually happens with clippers (as far as temps are concerned), though as others have said it would be difficult to avoid a mix with a track too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nobody do it. Do NOT feed the troll. It'll pass.How is a troll post. All globals give us like 4-6. If we get one inch and the rest sleet...that would be highly disappointing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: look at the lift in the DGZ on that NAM 3k 60h sounding at DCA... that would be epic I don’t know how to read that in a sounding. Can you explain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 0Z RGEM colder and slower with onset. Lining us up at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Back in 1994 during the sleet storm I really didn't realize the historic nature of that moment ( almost 6 inches of pure unadulterated sleet accumulation). Just incredible!!. Wish I took pics but I was a dumb ass . Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I would not be at all disappointed with a feb 14, 07 sleet/snow storm repeat; it’s one of my favorite storms of all time. Nearly 7 inches of sleet in Winchester and a glacier for the next month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON similar to 18z. Mid 20s with precip on the doorstep at 12z. ETA: The heavies go through south of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Much colder NW from the RGEM this run. I am snow at 0Z when I was sleet at 18Z. Sleet comes in like a wall for everyone. Massive sleet bomb this run. Actually flips me back to snow at the end this run. First model to do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, LP08 said: Toggle the runs...its shifted east like 250 miles in 3 runs. Maybe they meet at some middle ground but the NAM is not close to the final solution, IMO. You could be absolutely right. I just think this is a very difficult setup and the models tend not to get the—very important—specifics right till close to game time. And if anything will do that faster it’s the NAM along with other mesos. People are conveniently tossing the RGEM as well too. As I said I hope I’m wrong and I’m just bitter at this point. But I think ice is still a better bet and it’ll be tough to ward off upper level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: LOL it was t gonna flip all at once . Sure and the globals can still step back from where they are. I’m not wrong. It’s not the same solution. But it does give us a much better chance so hopefully it does continue to move that way. I’m just not very confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Damn, RGEM just keeps going and going. Sleeting all the way up to the end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure. And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads. It'll be sloppy, for sure. I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no? Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. Sleet would actually accumulate much easier then snow (just not the same kind of totals). Didn’t the sleet bomb in March 2017 accumulate some And temps look pretty cold and the precip gets going very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: IDK, if I'm not mistaken, I believe DCA tends to report really low snow totals at or near local minimums. This is especially true in marginal events like this one. Also the fall line and R/S line aren't the same thing. Yeah you might be right. This is my first full winter here. This winter it’s been pretty identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, RGEM just keeps going and going. Sleeting all the way up to the end of the run Its 1.3 qpf of sleet for DC Like 4 inches of sleet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 @EHoffman even I never said this was a non event. I said it could be more an ice then snow event and I hate ice events. But this looks like a high impact event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Damn, RGEM just keeps going and going. Sleeting all the way up to the end of the run Certainly not lacking in the qpf department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 At the very least I hope this thing stays as wet as the models are c saying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @EHoffman even I never said this was a non event. I said it could be more an ice then snow event and I hate ice events. But this looks like a high impact event. I know you didn't, somehow I got associated with you even though I never mentioned you. I do love your analysis though, good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2-4" of sleet would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: You could be absolutely right. I just think this is a very difficult setup and the models tend not to get the—very important—specifics right till close to game time. And if anything will do that faster it’s the NAM along with other mesos. People are conveniently tossing the RGEM as well too. As I said I hope I’m wrong and I’m just bitter at this point. But I think ice is still a better bet and it’ll be tough to ward off upper level warmth. Nobodys tossing mesos. They will get the warm nose more right than the globals. But we're still 48+ range. Mesos can magnify errors that far out. 24 hours from now is different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Back in 1994 during the sleet storm I really didn't realize the historic nature of that moment ( almost 6 inches of pure unadulterated sleet accumulation). Just incredible!!. Wish I took pics but I was a dumb ass . I just remember sledding for a half a mile+ without effort because everything was frozen. Damn I miss 94 & 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well ICON first one to be a bad run this evening. But it’s the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Well ICON first one to be a bad run this evening. But it’s the ICON Yeah. Most of the models at 0Z are kind of fringing us with the heavier precip to the south. I am hoping that tradeoff is more snow if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM 3k at 60 what a pounding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well ICON first one to be a bad run this evening. But it’s the ICON It might not be a lot of snow but it’s damn cold and a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well ICON first one to be a bad run this evening. But it’s the ICON Nobody breaks 30F fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: It might not be a lot of snow but it’s damn cold and a lot of ice I'm still trying to see where it;s a bad run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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