WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean look at all of the extreme weather going on out there, even if it's not a big snow maker it sure seems like a pretty interesting winter event is heading this way. As long as it isn't just plain freezing rain i'm pretty pumped for whatever comes This is me right here. I don’t want an all snow event. I want snow, sleet, freezing rain and back to a half inch coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: With the NAM caving, I can go to sleep easy now. When I wake up in the morning to do catch up, I better see Ron Paul a few times. Please and thank you. #ItsHappening 6z NAM, in my experiences in insomnia hell, has always shit the bed. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Alright I'm just gonna like, observe the weather threads from now on and we'll see where the chips fall. I hope I'm wrong and we get walloped. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Warm Nose said: I was way too lazy to do this. Also - just realized that @stormtracker - came in after I posted and said his idea of slop is different than mine. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yeah honestly everyone is saying the NAM caved. It didn’t. Caving would’ve been a similar solution and this is not a similar solution. You can say I’m arguing semantics but I made my call earlier. I think the NAM will end up being closer to the result. LOL it was t gonna flip all at once . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Damn. Glad that’s over. All aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah honestly everyone is saying the NAM caved. It didn’t. Caving would’ve been a similar solution and this is not a similar solution. You can say I’m arguing semantics but I made my call earlier. I think the NAM will end up being closer to the result. Toggle the runs...its shifted east like 250 miles in 3 runs. Maybe they meet at some middle ground but the NAM is not close to the final solution, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Tbh despite the fact that you’re right, it barely makes a tangible difference. The fall line has to cut RIGHT across DC for it to make a real difference. IDK, if I'm not mistaken, I believe DCA tends to report really low snow totals at or near local minimums. This is especially true in marginal events like this one. Also the fall line and R/S line aren't the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I was way too lazy to do this. Also - just realized that @stormtracker - came in after I posted and said his idea of slop is different than mine. Oops. It's subjective man, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The 3km is a front end thump DC and north. Nearly 0.3” in 3 hrs, apparently snow and 28-29 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Nam drops 1.5" qpf in 12 hours . What a wild ride of a winter storm . And if anyone noticed...the current storm underway the mesos have increased qpf right at game time so come Wednesday 18z I'll expect the same Welcome. Yes, hoping you are right. Sick of scraps. I want a precip bomb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Currently 33 and rain in Fairfax Station. Which feels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k NAM. This is the sounding at DCA (top) while the sim radar looks like that (below). 3 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah honestly everyone is saying the NAM caved. It didn’t. Caving would’ve been a similar solution and this is not a similar solution. You can say I’m arguing semantics but I made my call earlier. I think the NAM will end up being closer to the result. It caved. And it caved massively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If it's a mostly sleet storm...i will be very disappointed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam drops 1.5" qpf in 12 hours . What a wild ride of a winter storm . And if anyone noticed...the current storm underway the mesos have increased qpf right at game time so come Wednesday 18z I'll expect the same Welcome back. We missed you. All we need is the QPF, I’ll gladly take a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 3k NAM. This is the sounding at DCA (top) while the sim radar looks like that (below). Yes please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: If it's a mostly sleet storm...i will be very disappointed. We expect nothing less from you 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: If it's a mostly sleet storm...i will be very disappointed. Nobody do it. Do NOT feed the troll. It'll pass. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Dammit Andy. 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Dammit Andy. It’s either him or EHoff. Pick one 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: If it's a mostly sleet storm...i will be very disappointed. It's not, it's a healthy amount of rain and freezing rain as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Back to weather. That sim radar for the NAM looks very spring like. Should be lots of CAPE available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 how much for philly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3k NAM. This is the sounding at DCA (top) while the sim radar looks like that (below). Meteors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Back to weather. That sim radar for the NAM looks very spring like. Should be lots of CAPE available There is lightning showing up tonight SW of Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nobody do it. Do NOT feed the troll. It'll pass. For some reason that song from Mary Poppins went through my mind... Feed the trolls, Tuppence a bag. Tuppence, tuppence, Tuppence a bag! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The 12k NAM output for here matches February 14, 2007. 3-6" of snow then 3" of sleet before a quarter-inch of freezing rain. That one was one of the most impactful winter storms I've seen here. Only time I could walk on top of snowpack without breaking through. Just a surreal scene. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: There is lightning showing up tonight SW of Richmond. Let’s root for thundersleet so two posters can be super upset for different reasons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Please let this verify... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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