mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: What's the matter Ralph is your area not in the good snow for this one yet? Dude lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Still sleet DC north at 66 but very barely in DC...about to flip to ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We sure did. But you said....... nevermind. let's just be happy NAM is like exactly what I said to expect, slopfest. If it falls overnight potentially high impact event. Not like I said this would ever be a huge rainstorm, merely that climo wise seems more like a slopfest than a 6" snowstorm scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Too funny not to post.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: NAM is like exactly what I said to expect, slopfest. If it falls overnight potentially high impact event. Not like I said this would ever be a huge rainstorm, merely that climo wise seems more like a slopfest than a 6" snowstorm scenario. Definitely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nam will prob be furthest north with mid level temp problems the whole way in. And it will prob get it right at game time. Burning question of course is how much wiggle room if any for snow. Beats me. Like 0z so far tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is an iceberg big enough to sink the titanic for NOVA/MD. 2-3" of sleet and then 1/4"-1/2" ZR to freeze it all together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ehoff has not only moved his own goalposts but doubled down on top of it. 2 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I can remember sliding down my yard with the 93 ice storm. This one would be just as bad. 3 inches of concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: NAM is like exactly what I said to expect, slopfest. If it falls overnight potentially high impact event. Not like I said this would ever be a huge rainstorm, merely that climo wise seems more like a slopfest than a 6" snowstorm scenario. I might be remembering wrong - but didn't you actually call for just wet roads and pretty much very low impact in DC? A slopfest is definitely not the same and can be rather high impact. To me...a slopfest is a mixed bag of precip - but doesn't mean low impact. You also said you thought all the models (except the NAM) were going to bust too cold. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I mean look at all of the extreme weather going on out there, even if it's not a big snow maker it sure seems like a pretty interesting winter event is heading this way. As long as it isn't just plain freezing rain i'm pretty pumped for whatever comes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Man if the NAM is right we would get a total glacier, I mean some snow then a bunch of sleet along with freezing rain to solidify it into ice. It would be pretty fun not to mention have a lot of staying power but I think i'll take the snow solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I might be remembering wrong - but didn't you actually call for just wet roads and pretty much very low impact in DC? A slopfest is definitely not the same and can be rather high impact. To me...a slopfest is a mixed bag of precip - but doesn't mean low impact. You also said you thought all the models (except the NAM) were going to bust too cold. Your first problem was remembering any EHoff post. I don’t. No point. He cancelled it back at 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WB 3K NAM at 7am TH cooler than 12K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Only out to 54 on TT but NAM3k looks a little colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I might be remembering wrong - but didn't you actually call for just wet roads and pretty much very low impact in DC? A slopfest is definitely not the same and can be rather high impact. To me...a slopfest is a mixed bag of precip - but doesn't mean low impact. You also said you thought all the models (except the NAM) were going to bust too cold. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ehoff has not only moved his own goalposts but doubled down on top of it. Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure. And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads. It'll be sloppy, for sure. Just now, Kmlwx said: I might be remembering wrong - but didn't you actually call for just wet roads and pretty much very low impact in DC? A slopfest is definitely not the same and can be rather high impact. To me...a slopfest is a mixed bag of precip - but doesn't mean low impact. You also said you thought all the models (except the NAM) were going to bust too cold. I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no? Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Your first problem was remembering any EHoff post. I don’t. No point. He cancelled it back at 12z I try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt - my therapist hasn't quite gotten that part dealt with yet @EHoffman - one thing you've gotta realize....you can't just add the word "climo" into every post and expect it to hold meteorological weight. Yes - DCA climo is warmer than suburbs - but the tarmac at DCA is not the same as NW DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean look at all of the extreme weather going on out there, even if it's not a big snow maker it sure seems like a pretty interesting winter event is heading this way. As long as it isn't just plain freezing rain i'm pretty pumped for whatever comes Same man. This was never supposed to be all snow. In fact, it looked like way more rain than anything. The snow is a bonus, we were set for sleet/zr. I'm excited. Any winter weather person here would be if they had reasonable expectations. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15z on Thursday - 90kts at 700 blasting through on the NAM. Not so much on the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure. And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads. It'll be sloppy, for sure. I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no? Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. Good grief man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean look at all of the extreme weather going on out there, even if it's not a big snow maker it sure seems like a pretty interesting winter event is heading this way. As long as it isn't just plain freezing rain i'm pretty pumped for whatever comes I am all about high impact events. This one would qualify big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure. And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads. It'll be sloppy, for sure. I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no? Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. Slop is a mix of mangled wet snowflakes and rain. This is all frozen. February isn't May 1st. Snow has accumulated in the day in late March, and that was without a strong CAD/wedge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 With the NAM caving, I can go to sleep easy now. When I wake up in the morning to do catch up, I better see Ron Paul a few times. Please and thank you. #ItsHappening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt - my therapist hasn't quite gotten that part dealt with yet @EHoffman - one thing you've gotta realize....you can't just add the word "climo" into every post and expect it to hold meteorological weight. Yes - DCA climo is warmer than suburbs - but the tarmac at DCA is not the same as NW DC. The tarmac at DCA is in its own little universe, especially in relation to snow measurements lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure. And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads. It'll be sloppy, for sure. I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no? Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. Randy will make us move this to banter at some point, I'm sure BUT - I'd argue sleet can be much more impactful if it's really coming down. Little ice pellets take a bit longer to melt than a flakey piece of snow. If it truly is pouring sleet, that can form a crusty covering that would be a lot more awful to drive on than a covering of snow. Add in some FZRA to an untreated road or a bridge/overpass and it's a nightmare. Again - slopfest doesn't mean low impact. White rain perhaps does...but not slopfest. If it's dumping sleet I assure you it will not be wet roads everywhere. (edited for spelling) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt - my therapist hasn't quite gotten that part dealt with yet @EHoffman - one thing you've gotta realize....you can't just add the word "climo" into every post and expect it to hold meteorological weight. Yes - DCA climo is warmer than suburbs - but the tarmac at DCA is not the same as NW DC. Tbh despite the fact that you’re right, it barely makes a tangible difference. The fall line has to cut RIGHT across DC for it to make a real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Randy will make us move this to banter at some point, I'm sure BUT - I'd argue sleet can me much more impactful if it's really coming down. Little ice pellets take a bit longer to melt than a flakey piece of snow. If it truly is pouring sleet, that can form a crusty covering that would be a lot more awful to drive on than a covering of snow. Add in some FZRA to an untreated road or a bridge/overpass and it's a nightmare. Again - slopfest doesn't mean low impact. White rain perhaps does...but not slopfest. If it's dumping sleet I assure you it will not be wet roads everywhere. You’re exactly right. I just did an eye roll when I read it. Didn’t have energy to respond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 15z on Thursday - 90kts at 700 blasting through on the NAM. Not so much on the GFS. Yeah honestly everyone is saying the NAM caved. It didn’t. Caving would’ve been a similar solution and this is not a similar solution. You can say I’m arguing semantics but I made my call earlier. I think the NAM will end up being closer to the result. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 hours ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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