Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. We should just go ahead and do it now before 0z. If 0z fails we can immediately delete the thread to save the storm by 6z. 6 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: We should just go ahead and do it now before 0z. If 0z fails we can immediately delete the thread to save the storm by 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Make the thread as usual. This storm has been the complete opposite of the evolution of every other storm this year, so we need to make the thread as usual. What fails then will undoubtedly succeed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. NAMed if you do NAMed if you don't 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pretty sure we’re gonna get NAMed at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I am 100% against a thread until as late as possible. I don't care if it's superstitious. I'm willing to try anything at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Pretty sure we’re gonna get NAMed at 0z Highly unlikely. It had the snow line north of Toronto on the last run. Even the NAM couldn’t resolve that depiction in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. I'll send you a text at 6:45 to remind you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I'll send you a text at 6:45 to remind you I should have said after the 12z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread we will see you....tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I never got the superstition about threads...just start it now. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Watch us get NAM'd with a foot of snow, then someone starts a thread after the entire 00z suite and the rug gets pulled at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We actually need a thread to talk about when its acceptable to start a thread. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, umdterps29 said: I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything That's the rational explanation. But after 40 years following DC weather, I can't fully agree. It's entirely possible we're being reasonable. 3 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I started a boob arse thread back in the day for one of our storms. I started one for a soaking rain storm just so we had a place to complain and post the flooding that was occurring. It was depressing, but at least it was a place to commiserate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: I never got the superstition about threads...just start it now. It's dumb. Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening". Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do. I'm zen about it now. I may just start it anyway. Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit. I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's dumb. Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening". Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do. I'm zen about it now. I may just start it anyway. Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit. I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first. You have a bad track record of thread starts in DC this winter. If we’re being superstitious, you need to stay away from the ‘start new topic’ button. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's dumb. Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening". Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do. I'm zen about it now. I may just start it anyway. Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit. I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first. Just because we're irrational, doesn't mean we're wrong. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything The problem with starting a storm thread too early has nothing to Do with superstition. The earlier you start a thread the more chances you have of a major adjustment. 4 days out just leaves too much adjustments in forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Somebody explain what is gained by starting one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: It's a good year. I had 16" 2 weeks ago at 750' In elevation. Cascade/blue ridge summit area maxed out with 22" or so. But those areas are always 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Smithsburg or Thurmont. Right now we are at 34 and plain rain and just a couple miles away/600 feet up its 29 heavy glazing on Blue Ridge Summit Right. That area is a living jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody explain what is gained by starting one? We stop talking about when one should or shouldn’t be started. 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Any word on the 18z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: We stop talking about when one should or shouldn’t be started. Good point. But seriously, anybody want to answer that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m surprised no one referenced the SREF yet LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I’m surprised no one referenced the SREF yet LOL Is there a good place for those maps. NCEP maps are impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good point. But seriously, anybody want to answer that one? This is the day 3 and beyond thread. 3 days from now the storm will be over, so we’re in a bit of a weird spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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