Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread Only once the most important model caves... aka nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. NO. NO.NO. NO. NO. NO. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I started a boob arse thread back in the day for one of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, EHoffman said: It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole. The off runs are brutal Still over 1” of QPF for us and mostly frozen if not all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread I believe the consensus was to start it after the first 4" has fallen in D.C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: He's pathetic, seriously. It looked NOTHING like the NAM. lol Help straighten me out here ... it almost like he’s doing it to intentionally see if he can get under people’s skin. Am I off here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Only once the most important model caves... aka nam Good. So Thursday noon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. We should just go ahead and do it now before 0z. If 0z fails we can immediately delete the thread to save the storm by 6z. 6 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: We should just go ahead and do it now before 0z. If 0z fails we can immediately delete the thread to save the storm by 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Make the thread as usual. This storm has been the complete opposite of the evolution of every other storm this year, so we need to make the thread as usual. What fails then will undoubtedly succeed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im starting one tomorrow at 12z, weird superstitions be damned. NAMed if you do NAMed if you don't 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pretty sure we’re gonna get NAMed at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I am 100% against a thread until as late as possible. I don't care if it's superstitious. I'm willing to try anything at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Pretty sure we’re gonna get NAMed at 0z Highly unlikely. It had the snow line north of Toronto on the last run. Even the NAM couldn’t resolve that depiction in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I'll send you a text at 6:45 to remind you I should have said after the 12z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread we will see you....tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I never got the superstition about threads...just start it now. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Watch us get NAM'd with a foot of snow, then someone starts a thread after the entire 00z suite and the rug gets pulled at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We actually need a thread to talk about when its acceptable to start a thread. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I started a boob arse thread back in the day for one of our storms. I started one for a soaking rain storm just so we had a place to complain and post the flooding that was occurring. It was depressing, but at least it was a place to commiserate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: I never got the superstition about threads...just start it now. It's dumb. Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening". Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do. I'm zen about it now. I may just start it anyway. Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit. I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's dumb. Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening". Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do. I'm zen about it now. I may just start it anyway. Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit. I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first. You have a bad track record of thread starts in DC this winter. If we’re being superstitious, you need to stay away from the ‘start new topic’ button. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything The problem with starting a storm thread too early has nothing to Do with superstition. The earlier you start a thread the more chances you have of a major adjustment. 4 days out just leaves too much adjustments in forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Somebody explain what is gained by starting one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: It's a good year. I had 16" 2 weeks ago at 750' In elevation. Cascade/blue ridge summit area maxed out with 22" or so. But those areas are always 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Smithsburg or Thurmont. Right now we are at 34 and plain rain and just a couple miles away/600 feet up its 29 heavy glazing on Blue Ridge Summit Right. That area is a living jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody explain what is gained by starting one? We stop talking about when one should or shouldn’t be started. 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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