Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: No more than the rest of the region. We all want snow... Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Huh? His area is nothing like other parts of the region. How can you say it's 'no different'. That makes no sense at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster. You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 Honestly this looks beautiful. If it's all frozen I really won't complain. Hopefully the thump holds on a little longer. It happens often, those things are VERY difficult to time via modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: With the elevation and maxing out qpf with upslope that area jackpots. I need to move that way. I guess it depends on the year. They have about 500 feet on me which can make a difference. And if storms track inside being further west can help. On the other hand there have been years like 2010 and 2014 where this area did better because they were too far west to Jack a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. Yeah I thought it looked great up top and out in front. Tad slower though. 0z will be telling. And yes great post by him. He continues to impress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'll take a blend of the GFS and Euro please I’ll take a blend of “NOT the F’ing NAM” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole.The off runs are brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. Yeah, it's pretty apparent to see those differences in timing when comparing the GFS to the Euro. GFS already has 0.3-0.4" of precip as of 12z Thursday in areas where the event hasn't even started on the Euro. I believe it's the slowest of all OPs at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Garbage run here. Toss.Nam wins again lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. It's a good year. I had 16" 2 weeks ago at 750' In elevation. Cascade/blue ridge summit area maxed out with 22" or so. But those areas are always 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Smithsburg or Thurmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, EHoffman said: It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole. The off runs are brutal How much are you demanding from this storm for you to be happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro looks great to me. Mids are still trending the right way. Perfect. As heights press, slower onset often comes with the territory. That's 2 steps in front of what I'm watching. Heights are prob going to start sliding the other way sometime between now and wed night. I like where this is a lot more than I did 48 hours ago 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, EHoffman said: It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole. The off runs are brutal Is this actually a thing? Why would off runs be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 How much are you demanding from this storm for you to be happy?6-8 is my goalpost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's a good year. I had 16" 2 weeks ago at 750' In elevation. Cascade/blue ridge summit area maxed out with 22" or so. But those areas are always 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Smithsburg or Thurmont. Agreed. You can’t beat the elevation. 1400-1600ft up will give you better ratios and the precip jackpots. Always. 1400ft is the magic number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Garbage run here. Toss. Nam wins again lol Hmmm... euro looks like nam? You need to post an explantion why on your wx page so I can make the connection. No matter how hard I squint and go cross eyed, it still looks like the gfs and para 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 7am TH Attaboy Will. Shoot that heavier precip nose right at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Is this actually a thing? Why would off runs be any different? The 6z runs last week especially were crazy. Not sure if it's a thing or not but it seems the off runs often take more than give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Is this actually a thing? Why would off runs be any different? Just Ji things. 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro looks great to me. Mids are still trending the right way. Perfect. As heights press, slower onset often comes with the territory. That's 2 steps in front of what I'm watching. Heights are prob going to start sliding the other way sometime between now and wed night. I like where this is a lot more than I did 48 hours ago Agreed, good analysis. Now put your pants back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Hmmm... euro looks like nam? You need to post an explantion why on your wx page so I can make the connection. No matter how hard I squint and go cross eyed, it still looks like the gfs and paraIt was a joke for cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How much are you demanding from this storm for you to be happy? 6-8 is my goalpost There is no way you get that much rain and sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How much are you demanding from this storm for you to be happy? 6-8 is my goalpost 4-6" with 2" of sleet work? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro is a great run. All snow out here. We take. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hmmm... euro looks like nam? You need to post an explantion why on your wx page so I can make the connection. No matter how hard I squint and go cross eyed, it still looks like the gfs and para Which page, Jay's wintry madman?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Euro is a great run. All snow out here. We take. I would really like a glaze on this. If I’m making a wish list then it’s gonna have everything I want on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4-6" with 2" of sleet work?You mean dec 2020....sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 4-6" with 2" of sleet work? You mean dec 2020....sure lol have you ever really measured yourself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: lol have you ever really measured yourself? They don't make rulers that small. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: We're like 50-60 hours from onset....when does someone usually start the thread We can start this one on Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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