Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 am tick N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks good to me. Maybe not quite as good as 12z but has a band of 1”+ hr snow through DC at noon Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster and doesn't allow heights to rise as much in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Looks good to me. Maybe not quite as good as 12z but has a band of 1”+ hr snow through DC at noon Thursday. It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, EHoffman said: 18z Thu not as radically awesome as 12z and I only have low res maps but I think we're still snow. Here comes the kick in the nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Man, you were up my way! Amazing how much snow pack the catoctins/ cascade area still have. I travel route 77 over the catoctins ( Cunningham falls state park) each day to work and they still have well over a foot on the ground. They'll probably have a snow pack up there through the first half of March. Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Here comes the kick in the nuts. Still a really good run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Still a really good run... Yeah I was joking. I'm just really salty so anything below 6" is just not going to really get me going. Been robbed pretty much every storm except for the first January one and even that was pretty meh for a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Garbage run here. Toss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. With the elevation and maxing out qpf with upslope that area jackpots. I need to move that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Garbage run here. Toss. This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. lol I realize that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'll take a blend of the GFS and Euro please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. No more than the rest of the region. We all want snow...Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro Continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster and doesn't allow heights to rise as much in front. This is how much QPF falls before 850s give way (and 700s shortly after) for DC and southeast. Areas NW hold onto snow longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: lol I realize that. Haha I'm so bitter man. I feel for you. I grew up in Ellicott City, lived in Seattle for a two years (where I actually got lucky with a couple storms), then was absolutely blessed to live in Yonkers and Harlem for six years total. I can honestly say that Ellicott City is closer to New York than DC. Like, it's not even close. This is miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here. Yeah you're a teacher alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 It's a solid front end bump of snow followed by some serious ice that falls overnight; definitely a high impact event verbatim, I'd take it in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: No more than the rest of the region. We all want snow... Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Huh? His area is nothing like other parts of the region. How can you say it's 'no different'. That makes no sense at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster. You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 Honestly this looks beautiful. If it's all frozen I really won't complain. Hopefully the thump holds on a little longer. It happens often, those things are VERY difficult to time via modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: With the elevation and maxing out qpf with upslope that area jackpots. I need to move that way. I guess it depends on the year. They have about 500 feet on me which can make a difference. And if storms track inside being further west can help. On the other hand there have been years like 2010 and 2014 where this area did better because they were too far west to Jack a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. Yeah I thought it looked great up top and out in front. Tad slower though. 0z will be telling. And yes great post by him. He continues to impress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'll take a blend of the GFS and Euro please I’ll take a blend of “NOT the F’ing NAM” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole.The off runs are brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements. Yeah, it's pretty apparent to see those differences in timing when comparing the GFS to the Euro. GFS already has 0.3-0.4" of precip as of 12z Thursday in areas where the event hasn't even started on the Euro. I believe it's the slowest of all OPs at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Garbage run here. Toss.Nam wins again lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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