Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business Couldn't agree more. And the NAM has been hot this year. And the NAM--as I'm saying now for the upteenth time--is NOT a bad model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: What a weenie panel of the GEFS. Snow down to the VA/NC border on a handful of members. Short Pump is still in it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: dang look at Mass and upstate NY Don’t look now but if the globals are right it’s not that far from a mostly (or dare we dream all) snow solution now. One or two more adjustments south and it is. I’m not sure we even want that though. This is the type of storm where the max accumulations and impact will be places right along and just into the mix zone that get the initial thump then some sleet. The all snow zone will likely feature slightly lighter accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Early look at 6-HR accumulation forecasts from LWX Meh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: What a weenie panel of the GEFS. Snow down to the VA/NC border on a handful of members. D.C. flush hit on every member! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t look now but if the globals are right it’s not that far from a mostly (or dare we dream all) snow solution now. One or two more adjustments south and it is. I’m not sure we even want that though. This is the type of storm where the max accumulations and impact will be places right along and just into the mix zone that get the initial thump then some sleet. The all snow zone will likely feature slightly lighter accumulations. GFS furthest south NAM furthest NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, mappy said: Funny isn’t it it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t look now but if the globals are right it’s not that far from a mostly (or dare we dream all) snow solution now. One or two more adjustments south and it is. I’m not sure we even want that though. This is the type of storm where the max accumulations and impact will be places right along and just into the mix zone that get the initial thump then some sleet. The all snow zone will likely feature slightly lighter accumulations. I don’t want an all snow solution. I want 6” of snow,1/2” of sleet, 1/4” of ice. Perfection. The beauty of snow with staying power of Tom Brady. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Anyweather said: Short Pump is still in it. Don’t short them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Anyweather said: Short Pump is still in it. Hope their heat pumps are working! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 DT just went all in on his FB page for a major Ice Storm in NC and Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow down to the VA/NC border on a handful of members. The absolute last thing I want to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The absolute last thing I want to see If it helps the GEFS might be the worse than the SREF /s (kinda) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: GFS furthest south NAM furthest NW The spread is crazy though. The gfs is slightly SE of the other globals but honestly the globals on a whole are in amazing agreement. Most consensus we’ve had all season really. Then the NAM is in its own parallel universe. At 72 hours the globals have the snow/sleet line running through northern VA and near DC. The NAM has it around Binghamton. I’ve rarely seen that much divergence before. And it actually starts earlier then that. By like 48 hours you can see major differences to our west that lead to the tangent solution. It’s weird. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, snowfan said: Also a bit amusing that the person w supposedly the most season to date snowfall in the sub outside of the far western areas is telling us that a 2-4” snow to ice event is pathetic. He doesn’t have the most snow in the sub, and 2-4 to mix / rain is kind of pathetic - especially when places like Oklahoma City are seeing 2 major snowstorms this week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, paulythegun said: Para-ECMWF trending in the right direction too. When did we add a para Euro? Have I been oblivious to this all winter? Assumed all para discussions were GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just imagine being in north central PA. All the globals and fringing them to the south and the NAM says they barely get any snow and are mostly ice and dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dukeblue219 said: When did we add a para Euro? Have I been oblivious to this all winter? Assumed all para discussions were GFS.... There isn't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: He doesn’t have the most snow in the sub, and 2-4 to mix / rain is kind of pathetic lol Yea I took a trip up to penn mar park on Catoctin/South Mountain today with the kids. Played in the snow. Now they have true snowpack. I was envious. At least double what I have here. More like triple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: When did we add a para Euro? Have I been oblivious to this all winter? Assumed all para discussions were GFS.... I had heard a euro upgrade was coming but I didn’t know they were making the para public. Haven’t seen it anywhere until now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just imagine being in north central PA. All the globals and fringing them to the south and the NAM says they barely get any snow and are mostly ice and dryslot. I think they'll be ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. It's rolling out... at hr51 on WB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. It's running now, looks maybe a tick more amped, pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here. Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I took a trip up to penn mar park on Catoctin/South Mountain today with the kids. Played in the snow. Now they have true snowpack. I was envious. At least double what I have here. More like triple. Man, you were up my way! Amazing how much snow pack the catoctins/ cascade area still have. I travel route 77 over the catoctins ( Cunningham falls state park) each day to work and they still have well over a foot on the ground. They'll probably have a snow pack up there through the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18z Thu not as radically awesome as 12z and I only have low res maps but I think we're still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The spread is crazy though. The gfs is slightly SE of the other globals but honestly the globals on a whole are in amazing agreement. Most consensus we’ve had all season really. Then the NAM is in its own parallel universe. At 72 hours the globals have the snow/sleet line running through northern VA and near DC. The NAM has it around Binghamton. I’ve rarely seen that much divergence before. And it actually starts earlier then that. By like 48 hours you can see major differences to our west that lead to the tangent solution. It’s weird. RGEM is there too though. Not quite as much but nothing like the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7am TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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