deer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just imagine being in north central PA. All the globals and fringing them to the south and the NAM says they barely get any snow and are mostly ice and dryslot. I think they'll be ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. It's rolling out... at hr51 on WB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps. It's running now, looks maybe a tick more amped, pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here. Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I took a trip up to penn mar park on Catoctin/South Mountain today with the kids. Played in the snow. Now they have true snowpack. I was envious. At least double what I have here. More like triple. Man, you were up my way! Amazing how much snow pack the catoctins/ cascade area still have. I travel route 77 over the catoctins ( Cunningham falls state park) each day to work and they still have well over a foot on the ground. They'll probably have a snow pack up there through the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18z Thu not as radically awesome as 12z and I only have low res maps but I think we're still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The spread is crazy though. The gfs is slightly SE of the other globals but honestly the globals on a whole are in amazing agreement. Most consensus we’ve had all season really. Then the NAM is in its own parallel universe. At 72 hours the globals have the snow/sleet line running through northern VA and near DC. The NAM has it around Binghamton. I’ve rarely seen that much divergence before. And it actually starts earlier then that. By like 48 hours you can see major differences to our west that lead to the tangent solution. It’s weird. RGEM is there too though. Not quite as much but nothing like the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7am TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 am tick N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks good to me. Maybe not quite as good as 12z but has a band of 1”+ hr snow through DC at noon Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster and doesn't allow heights to rise as much in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Looks good to me. Maybe not quite as good as 12z but has a band of 1”+ hr snow through DC at noon Thursday. It generally has less QPF across the area as a whole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, EHoffman said: 18z Thu not as radically awesome as 12z and I only have low res maps but I think we're still snow. Here comes the kick in the nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Man, you were up my way! Amazing how much snow pack the catoctins/ cascade area still have. I travel route 77 over the catoctins ( Cunningham falls state park) each day to work and they still have well over a foot on the ground. They'll probably have a snow pack up there through the first half of March. Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Here comes the kick in the nuts. Still a really good run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Still a really good run... Yeah I was joking. I'm just really salty so anything below 6" is just not going to really get me going. Been robbed pretty much every storm except for the first January one and even that was pretty meh for a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Garbage run here. Toss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum. With the elevation and maxing out qpf with upslope that area jackpots. I need to move that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Garbage run here. Toss. This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. lol I realize that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'll take a blend of the GFS and Euro please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you. No more than the rest of the region. We all want snow...Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro Continued the trend of having confluence linger north of us (which hasn't stopped for maybe the past 48-72hrs), but it seems like the SW might be a bit amped and it's a bit slower, allowing heights to rise a bit in front. At least that's the explanation that I can see, since the GFS is like 6hrs faster and doesn't allow heights to rise as much in front. This is how much QPF falls before 850s give way (and 700s shortly after) for DC and southeast. Areas NW hold onto snow longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: lol I realize that. Haha I'm so bitter man. I feel for you. I grew up in Ellicott City, lived in Seattle for a two years (where I actually got lucky with a couple storms), then was absolutely blessed to live in Yonkers and Harlem for six years total. I can honestly say that Ellicott City is closer to New York than DC. Like, it's not even close. This is miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here. Yeah you're a teacher alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO; snow line heads N of DC around 4 It's a solid front end bump of snow followed by some serious ice that falls overnight; definitely a high impact event verbatim, I'd take it in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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