BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. Of course Ji would say when we need a north trend we get...you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Doesn't it give Winchester over 6" lol Its like 4 then a ton of sleet. I was joking obviously. I would have 3 inches of frozen concrete come Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. Yep, been watching the sleet and mix line push further NW all day into Ohio with the low tracking through now. Model shift NW started last night. Don't want it to happen, but it likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: This storm has Virginia special written all over it... congrats, to be fair we got our snow last week. Suppression fail crew has already taken the 00z shift away from the warm fail crew. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. They’re not ‘amped and north’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z HRRR was tons colder at 48 than the NAM fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: They’re not ‘amped and north’? lol ofc they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years. Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. Hope they start trending toward the globals but have they ever not been amped and north? It’s anecdotal but I feel like anytime there is a southern slider we can at least count on the srefs to throw us .50 of digital qpf when everything else is dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. Yep. I'd take 6 inches over 6-8 hours opposed to 10 over 36 hours, lol. About time us DC folk see good rates that actually accumulate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nice to see a Gulf lp "modeled" to pass to our south and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Updated* We should see winter storm watches tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: LOL Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance Gimme a break, I ain't falling for this sh$t again. That snow split is going to move right over us again, take it to the bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Gimme a break, I ain't falling for this sh$t again. That snow split is going to move right over us again, take it to the bank. Yet you feel compelled to visit the thread and post about your clairvoyance. Amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Agree with the assessment that the deterministic and short range models will settle down after the shortwave tonight goes through, I will take a blend of the 18Z GEFS , 12Z EPS, and 12Z Control for now... would make most happy! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Winter ain’t dead yet with this look. Lala land but we take that cold air transport setup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agree with the assessment that the deterministic and short range models will settle down after the shortwave tonight goes through, I will take a blend of the 18Z GEFS , 12Z EPS, and 12Z Control for now... would make most happy! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Winter ain’t dead yet with this look. Lala land but we take that cold air transport setup It was only like 2 people canceling winter after this week and one was Ji who should count as -1. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gefs 24 hour trend 13 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs 24 hour trend 7 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Early look at 6-HR accumulation forecasts from LWX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was only like 2 people canceling winter after this week and one was Ji who should count as -1. So does that sum up to 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs 24 hour trend dang look at Mass and upstate NY 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mr. Cape, I though you were near Annapolis, anyway I would be glad to be fringed in the SW part of Frederick County so that the SE gang gets a bigger hit. There were robins flying everywhere around my house today, sign of spring. I have had about 25 inches, unless it is a big one I have also had enough! I guess I am getting old... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Also a bit amusing that the person w supposedly the most season to date snowfall in the sub outside of the far western areas is telling us that a 2-4” snow to ice event is pathetic. Funny isn’t it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business IIRC, the SREFs have some of the NAM-esque members in there so if the NAM trends one way don't the SREFs follow to a degree? Can anyone confirm that? @ers-wxman1, @WxUSAF, @csnavywx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What a weenie panel of the GEFS. Snow down to the VA/NC border on a handful of members. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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