stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Colder still at 75-78. Turned to rain in DC at 12z...still frozen on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Looks a tick more suppressed Uhoh? @psuhoffman fringed? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks better across the board with heights/temps etc leading into onset. Still got the trend going in our favor. Thumpier and snowier and souther with the snow than 12Z. Great run and keeps mby in snow longer down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I love your guys location for this one. With the exit side of thr trough trending more progressive the initial fronto aimed right at you. Should make for a fun morning. Usually big wide open gulf events like this you’d expect NAM to be N. It should cave soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 By HR84 on the 18z GFS, 00z Friday, the surface low is in interior South Carolina and the 700mb temps are still below freezing from EZF to the Bay Bridge. Much colder than the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs from today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para should be interesting given that its dad upped the cold game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 congrats @usedtobe 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Good run, if you ignore the dumb snow maps. Actually took snow away from me and placed it further south. Who cares. Good thump and cold when it counts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS looks like just about all frozen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para should be interesting given that its dad upped the cold game It would be amusing if the para said, "hey dad, hold my beer!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para looks relatively cold as well... but concerned about suppression now. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para should be interesting given that its dad upped the cold game Colder, but drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para did the same thing as regular.. moved that heavy precip axis south compared to 12z... still a great thump area-wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Damn 12z to 18z shows 8 inches of snow in a six hour period for the thumpiest of regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS is obviously right because it has some semblance of a DC Snow Hole™. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Clearly the DC split always verifies even when not modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: LOL Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: LOL Let’s keep it right there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: @Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy This is a pretty flawed set up. Might just get it done. We have seen plenty of textbook ones manage to shit the bed. Pretty typical lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: @Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy Yeah, maybe not even 2 days ago this was all but a washout rain event that I more or less gave up even considering for anything much wintry (snow or sleet/ice). I'm honestly surprised at the changes, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Para did the same thing as regular.. moved that heavy precip axis south compared to 12z... still a great thump area-wide That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our area. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift here shortly if this continues. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew likes where my yard is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, GATECH said: Let keep it right there! There's a better chance of Valentine's Day occurring tomorrow than that map verifying... it's pretty tho. My bar remains at seeing snow that doesn't melt on contact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: LOL Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. 36 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our are. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew like where my yard is. Maybe we just put a little extra in that night deposit bag just in case! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If that 1.40 of ZR verified in Short Pump it would be an apocalypse 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow. No thanks to the ZR shown here in Central VA. That would be devastating considering we still have thousands without power from the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts