deer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I posted in the wrong thread but ICON is a decent thump from like 13z-19z....keeps temps in 20s thru 0z pics or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Icon actually tic'd colder at onset. Screw the NAM 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 100 miles? Pffft. That's less than 1 NAM run away to correct. 1000 miles is a red flag tho 12z was about 250 miles so definitely trending in right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I see two camps. One wants to be reasonable and chuck the NAM. The other is ready to jump. I'm going to put this out there before the rest of 18z starts rolling in because I don't want to seem like I'm just rolling with the waves. When the mesos start trying to pull the globals back to reality, the writing is on the wall. I like where we're at right now considering where we were at two days ago, but to underestimate the NAM at this point--which I've tried to mention many times this winter is a good model--would be foolish. This just isn't a setup that's very conducive for us. We're lucky to have this shunting mechanism but it can only do so much. We're still threading the needle. Maybe I'm playing my own sublimation game and overcompensating to protect myself, but I think it's a pretty big stretch to hope for WSW criteria at this point. For me, I'm just happy if we get a storm that produces water in frozen form to any extent. Anything more than that is icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM a bit warmer on the front end but basically remains the same in terms of trajectory. Nothing like the NAM. Hell of a sleet bomb after the changeover. It can still eat it though. The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I still need another 50 miles or so on most guidance in general to feel good about a few inches on the front end. On the NAM I need 250. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Most all of the models, with the exception of one not to be NAMed, have surface temperatures barely budging through much of the day on Thursday. Takes a pretty stout CAD to pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty big improvement on ICON compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon actually tic'd colder at onset. Screw the NAM We don't get NAMed anymore, we merely get runs that would be deemed ICONic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ahh the PWC jackpot 3 days out...I haven’t fallen for that one in at least a week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lets face it- this is all about the front end. This is a GOOD look right here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man the RGEM is a catastrophic ice storm for southern VA. 1.3 inches of zr falling into the low to mid 20's. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion. Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Ahh the PWC jackpot 3 days out...I haven’t fallen for that one in at least a week It's gonna happen this time man. Believe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I still need another 50 miles or so on most guidance in general to feel good about a few inches on the front end. On the NAM I need 250. Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also a bit amusing that the person w supposedly the most season to date snowfall in the sub outside of the far western areas is telling us that a 2-4” snow to ice event is pathetic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’m just rooting for snow. I don’t care how much. Measurable, not falling and melting, more than 2 hours of crap rates snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. Trying to figure how that was any step to the NAM, especially in low track. I mean, was a little warmer at onset vs 12z but it didn't look anything like the NAM. That being said, RGEM can eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, H2O said: I’m just rooting for snow. I don’t care how much. Measurable, not falling and melting, more than 2 hours of crap rates snow Amen brotha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. This here is my bar for this...For a storm that a few days ago looked like all rain, I think this is a healthy goal to have. I'm okay with thump to sleet/ice...at least the snowcover will still be there afterward! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild That's more than a warm nose. It's more like a nose and lips! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. I guess my expectations were so low I just have no reason to hand wring over how this goes. My snowpack died today for the most part, so nothing to protect, and given the hostile look for the coastal plain just a few days ago, whatever frozen I get I am fine with. The NAM might have the right idea, and if it does, so be it. Then I get 90% rain as I expected anyway lol. Given the trends on almost all other guidance though, I think it is most likely the NAM being the NAM at range, and is probably out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well, I can say this much...GFS definitely not taking any steps whatsoever toward the NAM. If anything it moved a little more S and a bit colder 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild I think I see the virgin mary 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, I can say this much...GFS definitely not taking any steps whatsoever toward the NAM. Looks a tick more suppressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gfs looks better across the board with heights/temps etc leading into onset. Still got that trend going in our favor. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That high on the GFS moved into a much better position. This could be the one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Looks a tick more suppressed Yup. It'll give us some cushion when it starts moving back north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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