mattie g Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 700 mb is colder throughout Th 6Z v 12Z I realize this is a little late, but I thought this was a pretty impressive (and potentially quite significant) run-over-run change. Would LOVE to see this continue at 18z. Liking what seems to be a little better confluence on the NAM early on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: I realize this is a little late, but I thought this was a pretty impressive (and potentially quite significant) run-over-run change. would LOVE to see this continue at 18z. Liking what seems to be a little better confluence on the NAM early on. Yup, it's colder at 850 across the entire area even back through Erie (-10 now versus -7 previous run) and up through Philly. Good to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 ULL hanging out a little further west through 48. Nice 850 line push south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 47 minutes ago, Ji said: i havent seen anything toss us back precip from the coastal yet The upper level energy is actually washing out as the system runs into the cold. It’s all WAA and fgen forcing driven. There isn’t much in the way of classic coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 700mb temps are much colder wed AM on the nam. For just 40 hours out, it was a big jump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Only took two months. Progress More like 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 700mb temps are much colder wed AM on the nam. For just 40 hours out, it was a big jump. 850s too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 700mb temps are much colder wed AM on the nam. For just 40 hours out, it was a big jump. Yup. People can say what they want but everyone should feel better if the NAM gets on board. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: If we can push that DCA total to 10" on the next clown map update we will surpass the 250" threshold of digital snow for the year 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 EPS trend 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Regardless of if the NAM gets it done or not, we know that far western track is probably wrong since it's going toward the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the consensus.. we do not have it yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There isn't even a front end bump to be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z NAM still does not want to board the train to Thumpville 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Regardless of if the NAM gets it done or not, we know that far western track is probably wrong since it's going toward the other models NAM'ped effect. I like everything I see today. It's fair to be skeptical of the juiced up solutions. Still in the range where models have consistently overdone QPF. In the grand scheme we only care how juicy the front side is tho. 2 tenths per hour QPF may not verify but it should come in like a wall this time around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM still on some ol bullshit 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the consensus.. we do not have it yet! It’s really not much of anything. The bulk of the precip is shoved so far N and W it misses most of this sub before temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: 18z NAM still does not want to board the train to Thumpville What's your verdict/thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAM is strengthening the primary in Ohio. That’s not what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: What's your verdict/thoughts I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Globals giving us a snowstorm and the NAM giving us a squall line Thursday night lol. If it were any other season I'd be laughing at the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, high risk said: I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier". Yeah, that's where I am. It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out. NAM's got plenty of time to get it together. Guess we'll see if the other 18z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks. Probably best to just expect a typical late Feb mediocre setup slopstorm and anything better than that is gravy. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Absolutely wild 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's where I am. It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out. NAM's got plenty of time to get it together. Guess we'll see if the other 18z now. we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 *The storm that caused the NWS to reconsider its decision to retire the NAM or why one shouldn't look at mesoscale output until within 48 hours? *Just kidding of course, it isn't really being retired because of performance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 what a deflating run and ruined a good day. Yikes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Out of curiosity, given how far apart NAM was from globals in 12z suite -- did anyone really expect it to completely cave? Isn't a partial cave kinda good news? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks Thru 48, it was much better in the mids. That's where I stop believing the nam. Especially in the face of overwhelming guidance to the contrary with the storm itself. There are times to freak out on the NAM. For me, this isnt even close to one of them. Now if all of 18z goes that way, I'll see ya next winter 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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