WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Pretty blue-ful 12z suite. EPS does look very nice for the D9-10 “window” and does seem to be staying around the 25-26th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I’m buying it. This has to be it. This cold rain today is such a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, frd said: Pretty Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given yearDo you think this adds something to the conversation? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year Ha! you should've seen it last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Ha! you should've seen it last year! Same climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I personally feel the probability of above normal climo snowfall is heightened from Jan 25 th to Feb 10 th. Time will tell. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Same climo Huh? It was like an inch or 2 for long periods of time. The blinds were closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Long way to go for just a few inches. I must have missed when we asked for a wet blanket today. 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Some of those long range upper air maps remind me a lot of 2010. I know weenie talk. But they do. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just the way it's supposed to work with a west based block and a 50-50 low. We have all the features in the right places. No high sliding off the east coast with return flow wrecking the airmass in front. Exactly but it’s been so long people probably forget how it works. A couple of those 2010 storms had primaries get pretty far NW also... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year DC averages 5.7” the whole month of January. And all that 5” mean is from a 6 day period. DCs highest avg weekly snowfall is probably about 1.5”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 BAMWX- not buying the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Exactly but it’s been so long people probably forget how it works. A couple of those 2010 storms had primaries get pretty far NW also... I remember the first storm in Feb the temp was 36 when the first flakes started to fall. In a more typical setup, that would be rain in no time. But with the blocking pattern and the surface features right where we want them, the temp quickly fell to freezing, then into the mid 20s within a couple hours with heavy snow. Dynamical cooling works, but evaporational cooling is more effective. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Do none of them ride the apps? Lows don’t typically ride the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: BAMWX- not buying the cold Bam Margera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lows don’t typically ride the apps On models they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The low rides the spine of the apps without a high over New England. How is that snow? That looks like quick thump to rain to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: BAMWX- not buying the cold They do this flip-flopping it seems like for every model run. It's incredibly tedious. I have yet to see them get something right. Modelology is not meteorology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That looks like quick thump to rain to me. Or thump to dryslot. Which can work for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That looks like quick thump to rain to me. It’s a quick thump to rain on the GFS. All snow on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That looks like quick thump to rain to me. The transfer is pretty much perfect, and the flow is from the NE between the HP over Canada and the 50-50 low. The cold stays locked in. Now it may not play out that way in reality, but that's how it goes down this run, and its exactly what I want to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Bam Margera?Bam bamSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, chris21 said: It’s a quick thump to rain on the GFS. All snow on the Euro. I'm reminded of what i heard when the Euro shows snow and the GFS doesn't..... ....Almost like a voice in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW. 14 big hits on that map for MBY. I know all it means is there's great potential between now and the end of Jan, but that is the best individual snow members plot I have seen yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 55 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: BAMWX- not buying the cold Anyone noticed they used the F scale not C. And the color scale has every half degree. So it’s a general 2 degree F difference over a 7 day period a week away. That’s not unusual variance run to run. Their presentation skews the perception imo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone noticed they used the F scale not C. And the color scale has every half degree. So it’s a general 2 degree F difference over a 7 day period a week away. That’s not unusual variance run to run. Their presentation skews the perception imo. They have a bit of a bias. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Their presentation skews the perception imo. I have lost respect for them, however, Allan seems enthused and the general depiction is over running during the pattern evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Near this date there could be a big one, maybe, possibly. Seriously, at this time frame that is so beautiful. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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