clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. It is a straight up crush job for the NW burbs. Winchester Pummeled. Wow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Even talking about a thread makes me nervous... the snow gods are going to think we're getting cocky 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. Snow will accumulate during daylight hours much better if there's just the slightest base formed overnight. I believe that's what happened if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ukie looks like 6" on the front end too. I still stan for the King NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Never gets above freezing during the event, might actually be pretty much all snow verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not a good idea Keep us posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. It is a straight up crush job for the NW burbs. Winchester Pummeled. Wow.Ukmet has been all over this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yes. Yes I do. I thought of this last night made me laugh. Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. When the cop asked Del if he thought the melted car was safe for highway travel he said that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads" I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! Your memory probably isn't correct, I've never been a solid poster. That said, I agree where you're coming from and it's certainly an intriguing event. And the globals are certainly looking awesome. I just try to factor in DC climo and try to keep in mind we've had literally every storm go to shit for us <48 hrs from game time and I'm trying to keep a level head and not get overly excited. Definitely one of those storms where I won't believe it until it's actually happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. Damn..I thought we hit our peak possibilities yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: I thought of this last night made me laugh. Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. When the cop asked Del if he thought the melted car was safe for highway travel he said that. All time classic. Top 5 fave for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: All time classic. Top 5 fave for me. You're old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You're old Because I like an old movie? I guess. Any update on when we should make a thread? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All time classic. Top 5 fave for me. Well you have no functioning gauges. Nope not a one...but the radio works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me how...classic 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol Damn! I totally missed that little piggy. He must have gone all the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 No Thread until I see Ron Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 How much for Short Pump? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 How much for Carbondale? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The UK is all snow west of the Blue Ridge. Unreal run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: But why? Why do it that early? What purpose does it serve? Ok 12z Thursday. But we'd be going against @BTRWx's Thanks Giving, who is one of the smartest posters on this board. You sure you wanna challenge that powerhouse? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn..I thought we hit our peak possibilities yesterday. Lowest lows can only be reached after the highest highs have presented themsevles. Feels lofty right now but there is still potential for an even bigger fall from the top. I cant stay up for the euro tonight. DM a recap of the carnage in the early AM so I can start my day off right 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAM showed an ugly warm nose near 700 hPa. Here is a time series showing 700 hPa temperature trends for several runs of the GFS-Parallel for 1 PM Thursday afternoon 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, mappy said: thinking tomorrow at the earliest. 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, was going to make one after the Euro.......tomorrow. 12z tomorrow Please wait. I’m begging you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok 12z Thursday. But we'd be going against @BTRWx's Thanks Giving, who is one of the smartest posters on this board. You sure you wanna challenge that powerhouse? That's the nicest thing someone on the board ever said to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 UKIE is pretty meh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's the nicest thing someone on the board ever said to me. I 100% believe that. Yes. Yes I do. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Please wait. I’m begging you. Are we that superstitious? we could never make a thread and its gonna do what its gonna do with or without it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 But ...... the, the, the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Are we that superstitious? we could never make a thread and its gonna do what its gonna do with or without it. I sometimes think people are being serious....like they are that superstitious. Winterwxlvr might be joking tho..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The GFS is starting to lose the idea of pumping up the SE ridge in the long range as well. Early March could be interesting for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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