Miss Pixee Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Man, the latest GFS-v16 is a great storm for us a solid thump followed by sleet and then ice but never goes above freezing before the precip moves out then an artic blast a day later to keep the snow around on the ground instead of melting. I would take that in a heartbeat doubt it happens though. Odd, local news has everything as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 IF ANYONE gets some ridiculous ingrown hair up their ass and wants to either close this thread for a new one OR WORSE... wants to start a storm thread... I WILL F'N KILL THEM UNTIL THEY DIE FROM IT 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow. Not triggered, just smh at how weird you got over one run. You can boast. It's always easier to be a whining, shit posting debbie downer here, that's for sure. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?! It does sometimes snow in DC...yeah, Its a lot harder than folks to the NW, but it happens...If it goes to crap it goes to crap, but as modeled its a nice snow thump for even DC right now...yeah its the future, it hasnt happened but its all the data we have to go off of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: IF ANYONE gets some ridiculous ingrown hair up their ass and wants to either close this thread for a new one OR WORSE... wants to start a storm thread... I WILL F'N KILL THEM UNTIL THEY DIE FROM IT lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?! We love to hand wring and gang up around here. It's therapeutic. Nothing personal whatsoever honestly. The only cure is a legit winter event. I suggest getting some shoulder pads and a helmet here shortly 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: IF ANYONE gets some ridiculous ingrown hair up their ass and wants to either close this thread for a new one OR WORSE... wants to start a storm thread... I WILL F'N KILL THEM UNTIL THEY DIE FROM IT Jeez Bob. Chill. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 CMC has trended colder in the column and w the CAD sig. it’s a snow to sleet pounding at 18z Thur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not triggered, just smh at how weird you got over one run. You can boast. It's always easier to be a whining, shit posting debbie downer here, that's for sure. NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We love to hand wring and gang up around here. It's therapeutic. Nothing personal whatsoever honestly. The only cure is a legit winter event. I suggest getting some shoulder pads and a helmet here shortly Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow. I think you might misunderstand the purpose of this thread, it's not to predict the most reasonable outcome, it is (mostly) to fantasize and enjoy the model runs, truthfully. I think most of us are here to have fun, and even if we know the most realistic outcome is not what the para is showing and is more like your inch of snow/sleet mix, we don't want to hear it repeated ad infinitum. We want to hope for something better! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I can definitively say that eventually, LWX will issue a watch, or a warning, or an advisory and people will definitely hug the snowiest model, and psu will definitely see more than the rest of us. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, mappy said: I can definitively say that eventually, LWX will issue a watch, or a warning, or an advisory and people will definitely hug the snowiest model, and psu will definitely see more than the rest of us. But WHEN?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Jeez Bob. Chill. Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, H2O said: But WHEN?? definitely eventually 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years. But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands. Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart. But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it. That's not happening this time. NAM is alone. Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry. I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before. Still time to go that way tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What's the higher odds over 3 inches in DC or under 3 inches in DC on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 CMC is .6 QPF with the initial thump. A little bit of Sleet on the back end of that. But it would be a solid 3-6 of snow before the flip for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow. Can you please stop saying wet snow? You may very well get sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain but you aren’t getting wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol Hot shots? Part Deax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you please stop saying wet snow? You may very well get sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain but you aren’t getting wet snow. definitely nothing for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: definitely eventually If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Pixee said: Odd, local news has everything as rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I can definitively say that eventually, LWX will issue a watch, or a warning, or an advisory and people will definitely hug the snowiest model, and psu will definitely see more than the rest of us. Warnings make it snow more 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/15 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: What's the higher odds over 3 inches in DC or under 3 inches in DC on Thursday? Too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Warnings make it snow more That's a given. Especially if your office is the first in the region to issue them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands. Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart. But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it. That's not happening this time. NAM is alone. Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry. I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before. Still time to go that way tho. Whoa is me. Hahahahahah. Woe horsey, woe 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12z GEFS mean is another tick south compared to 6z. These are contaminated with sleet but the max stripe shifted south. Supports a 3-6” thump to sleet. 7 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 12z GEFS mean is another tick south compared to 6z. These are contaminated with sleet but the max stripe shifted south. Supports a 3-6” thump to sleet. That's great to see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Whoa is me. Hahahahahah. Woe horsey, woe The time for revenge is always close by 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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