aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago. One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail. I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic. Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me? Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. Me make you? the nam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Preface -- this is NOT a criticism or meant to be banter... When would we normally start a storm thread for Feb 18th? Would we wait until this upcoming (Tuesday) system is done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Rgem still looks good. 3-6” before flip to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago. One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail. I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic. Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me? Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. This was a rainstorm just a few days ago that resurrected itself into a maybe ok winter wx event. That warm layer is going to be a problem no matter what. I think most already accept that. My yard will sleet before yours. There's like no question about it. Seeing some snow being still quite possible on the front side on Monday is pretty good considering where we just came from. I know you know this and totally agree. But quick scan this morning seemed like somehow an expected warning level event is slipping away again. A bit jumpy, no? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WxMan1 said: Preface -- this is NOT a criticism or meant to be banter... When would we normally start a storm thread for Feb 18th? Would we wait until this upcoming (Tuesday) system is done? Friday at this rate ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Rgem still looks good. 3-6” before flip to sleet. Icon looks the same but no way of knowing with out all the layers. Still is all frozen for the majority here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Main slug of precip on the ICON aimed at Knoxville, TN at the same time (hr. 69) the 12k NAM has it pointed at Lousiville, KY. That's a 250 mile difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Me make you? the bam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis. But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have. I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right. It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon looks the same but no way of knowing with out all the layers. Still is all frozen for the majority here. Holds on at the surface w temps til mid morning Friday. Would be an icy mess on top of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis. But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have. I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right. It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! I'm not one who jumps on the snowiest model and ignores the rest, I'm just making an observation...but in the end it's just my observation. You do you man, you know your stuff and I've never disputed that. I will continue to read your analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I looked at the 0z euro for 30 seconds and really didnt look at much from anything else so I'm just repeating something I may have said earlier (i talk too much to keep track). These events practically always lose ground close in. We're still fighting for how much cushion we have to lose. A bit early to jump on meso trends (imo only). Does today mark the beginning of the giveback period? Maybe. I'll wait until 0z before spending much time with details. We have yet to have any stability in guidance from mid to really short range in weeks. The only thing that wont change with this event is the fact that lots and lots of changes are on the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Me make you? the nam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm not one who jumps on the snowiest model and ignores the rest, I'm just making an observation...but in the end it's just my observation. You do you man, you now your stuff and I've never disputed that. I will continue to read your analysis You are going to give him a meltdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. See ya next time then! It will probably be semi-significant icing somewhere in the region - that stripe remains to be seen. Low level cold air will be typically tough to scour out. I don't think this is a written off "quickly to rain" scenario for many areas. The warm layer is upstairs - not at the surface. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis. But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have. I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right. It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! The NAM has won this battle a few times this winter. Hard to imagine the NAM over doing the combined forecasting power of the EPS, GEFS and GEPS , but it has in the past. Until it looks better Iam not interested in Thursday. You are correct to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. Hmmm, of course that outcome is possible, but I don't necessarily agree. Starting out in the 20s is a decent recipe for some front end accumulations. Of course, the models could all change and we could start out at 35 and fail miserably, but if the models hold the look they have now I'd expect at least some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a rainstorm just a few days ago that resurrected itself into a maybe ok winter wx event. That warm layer is going to be a problem no matter what. I think most already accept that. My yard will sleet before yours. There's like no question about it. Seeing some snow being still quite possible on the front side on Monday is pretty good considering where we just came from. I know you know this and totally agree. But quick scan this morning seemed like somehow an expected warning level event is slipping away again. A bit jumpy, no? This is personal perspective. I don’t disagree with what you said. But there is another POV. The globals all do show a 4-8” snow before the flip to ice from DC north. And yes some in here are believing that. The NAM shoes NO snow. That’s a pretty big difference. My point was if we want the big thump snow scenario to be right the NAM is problematic. Ive not said the NAM is definitely right. But it’s good at seeing high level warm air intrusion. And that’s been my worry all along why this would be more a ice then snow event. But I said it could be wrong too and admitted it’s still early to take us as gospel but like I told Leesburg I think when I explain why the worst model could very well be right it annoys people whose first defense mechanism instinct is to dismiss and find ways to toss any model that threatens their dream. Now about personal preference if someone has accepted this is just a mixy ice event with very little snow of significance then there is no problem. But I have absolutely no interest in a sleet bomb. None. Zero zip. Sleet and freezing rain do absolutely NOTHING for me. Actually I hate them worse then rain because they make me angry it’s not snowing. Maybe that fact explains my stance here! Just being honest about my admittedly crazy feelings. So for me the difference between the globals and the NAM is HUGE. The globals (with their 4-8” snow) is an event worth tracking. The NAM to me is a total fail since I only care about snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: See ya next time then! It will probably be semi-significant icing somewhere in the region - that stripe remains to be seen. Low level cold air will be typically tough to scour out. I don't think this is a written off "quickly to rain" scenario for many areas. The warm layer is upstairs - not at the surface. Yes hence why I said "for DC." Since I live in DC. And we do very poorly with these types of scenarios, almost always. I don't doubt that somewhere north of DC will get a significant winter event from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. It must be cool knowing exactly what is going to happen in the atmosphere above you 3 days from now while watching the rest of us struggle to figure it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Main slug of precip on the ICON aimed at Knoxville, TN at the same time (hr. 69) the 12k NAM has it pointed at Lousiville, KY. That's a 250 mile difference. Yea I pointed out in my NAM post how crazy divergent it is. It’s WAY off with the initial wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: @high risk can verify this one way or another, but I don't think it's quite right to say the NAM has a cold bias? Yeah, it doesn't have a systematic cold bias overall, but it can run a bit cold in terms of trying to cool columns in marginal winter events with strong lift. It's also worth noting that it can overdo the strength of the warm nose, usually by cranking up and veering the flow too much between 850 and 700. I know we're all looking for reasons to toss its solution that really minimizes the front end thump of snow Thursday. While it's justifiable to note several times this winter when it has sniffed out some important trends, the NAM feels like a bit of synoptic outlier right now, although I would absolutely not put any money on that. 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Yes hence why I said "for DC." Since I live in DC. And we do very poorly with these types of scenarios, almost always. I don't doubt that somewhere north of DC will get a significant winter event from this. I honestly am inclined to think there could be an icing threat even south of DC. Again, it'll be a narrow stripe as FRZA always is. I'm not confident (yet) that UHI is going to save you from staying frozen for longer than you're expecting. We'll see - still several days out - but just because you're in DC doesn't preclude you from a winter wx threat with this one. Even places like Fredericksburg could still be in the game for icing or sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rgem still looks good. 3-6” before flip to sleet. Was just going to post about the RGEM. It is a pretty awesome storm for the NW burbs verbatim. Great snow/sleet bomb with very little zr west of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I honestly am inclined to think there could be an icing threat even south of DC. Again, it'll be a narrow stripe as FRZA always is. I'm not confident (yet) that UHI is going to save you from staying frozen for longer than you're expecting. We'll see - still several days out - but just because you're in DC doesn't preclude you from a winter wx threat with this one. Even places like Fredericksburg could still be in the game for icing or sleet. Yes I do think SOME of the precip will fall frozen in DC. I just don't think there will be a signficant/any impact in the city. We are always too warm, we always switch over earlier than anticipated in these types of systems, and we're always too cold on the globals at this time frame. This is how DC weather works in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I honestly am inclined to think there could be an icing threat even south of DC. Again, it'll be a narrow stripe as FRZA always is. I'm not confident (yet) that UHI is going to save you from staying frozen for longer than you're expecting. We'll see - still several days out - but just because you're in DC doesn't preclude you from a winter wx threat with this one. Even places like Fredericksburg could still be in the game for icing or sleet. Yeah, if you look at the strength and location of the high and arctic air nearby and light northeast flow it’s actually a classic situation for a major ice event in dc. Def doesn’t look like an all snow event in dc, but I would certainly not sleep on the sleet/ice potential with this storm given the synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Yes I do think SOME of the precip will fall frozen in DC. I just don't think there will be a signficant/any impact in the city. We are always too warm, we always switch over earlier than anticipated in these types of systems, and we're always too cold on the globals at this time frame. This is how DC weather works in the winter. This is kind of a garbage post. You're not considering or analyzing the synoptic evolution or antecedent airmass. You're just saying "we always fail". I've lived in the DC area since 2009 and there have been quite a few good storms that don't fit your narrative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The cold push is just light years better on the GFS. 540 line is 50 miles south of the NAM at 60. GFS starts as snow down to RIC this run. Beatdown for all. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Yes I do think SOME of the precip will fall frozen in DC. I just don't think there will be a signficant/any impact in the city. We are always too warm, we always switch over earlier than anticipated in these types of systems, and we're always too cold on the globals at this time frame. This is how DC weather works in the winter. Ehhh... happens a lot... but we just had a high impact freezing rain event two days ago that was apparently “impossible in dc” even though I’ve seen it many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Yeah, it doesn't have a systematic cold bias overall, but it can run a bit cold in terms of trying to cool columns in marginal winter events with strong lift. It's also worth noting that it can overdo the strength of the warm nose, usually by cranking up and veering the flow too much between 850 and 700. I know we're all looking for reasons to toss its solution that really minimizes the front end thump of snow Thursday. While it's justifiable to note several times this winter when it has sniffed out some important trends, the NAM feels like a bit of synoptic outlier right now, although I would absolutely not put any money on that. Thanks, that makes sense. I'm certainly not discounting the NAM solution out-of-hand at this point. Thing is, as @Bob Chill mentioned, only a couple or so days ago this was looking like all but a straight-up rainstorm for much of the area, and it's now trended better, apparently (for wintry type precip). In fact, before this initially fell apart a few days ago, I don't even recall the Thursday event being looked at as snow per se anyhow. The indications were that Tuesday and Thursday could be significant icing events earlier on. That there's now even a chance for some kind of snow before a flip to sleet/ice (or whatever) is a big change in the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The cold push is just light years better on the GFS. 540 line is 50 miles south of the NAM at 60. GFS starts as snow down to RIC this run. Yessir! Frozen precip all the way into NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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