Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! Given it's recent performance I'm just a tad nervous if it doesn't jump on board... as crazy as that sounds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW 3km is a good shift SE of 12km With heights so that’s a positive Edit: well maybe slightly better. Gonna need a lot more though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW Concerning it is, but will pull the "NAM not in its wheelhouse yet" card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah. NAM starts as sleet at 9z in Winchester. It hasdonr so well this winter it is tough to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. Edited to add at hour 69. When the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. are you out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Concerning it is, but will pull the "NAM not in its wheelhouse yet" card Problem is the NAM has the ability to see the mid level warm layers the globals don’t. The other problem is with the screaming SW jet it kinda makes sense! It’s why I was hesitant to get excited about this setup. So yea maybe it’s wrong but it’s worrying Imo. ETA: would still be a high impact ice event. I have absolutely 0 interest in that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. 700mb. Sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. Edited to add at hour 69. When the precip starts. Around 700mb. It’s pretty high up which jives with the jet presentation. Warmest level could even be above 700mb. That’s why such a large sleet area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: are you out? I objectively analyzing the data. My desires don’t influence my analysis. Crazy how no one minded my analysis of the positive trends on all the globals. It’s not my fault the NAM looks like hot poop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, frd said: Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event. Yesterday they were focused more on rain falling over wet snow pack and flooding concerns, so it seems they are shifting their thinking some with the latest trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS Lol this lasted 4 minutes 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol this lasted 4 minutes Let me explain how the NAM wins. Post 1/20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol this lasted 4 minutes Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Going with the hot hand for Thursday. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3k NAM looks better. Still a bit NW of the globals at 60 but not nearly as bad as the 12k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track. It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in. This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lol. DCA ~6hrs into precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb. Yea hopefully some red tags will come say how Im crazy to be worried about the NAM at 72. But the NAM is really good at picking up on these warm layers. But it is still outside optimal range. It can be wrong. I’m not throwing any towel. But I keep wanting to see some sign the NAM is going to cave and it’s locked in with that 700mb warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track. It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in. This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right Did you not pay any attention to what the Eps pulled last week in VA??? Your other points are valid. I’m not out on this. But the euro has been pretty bad lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. I don't doubt your analysis at all, but you do get jumpy just like the NAM does sometimes. You don't have to admit it...I hope the front end thump works out. Now reap your rewards with Ji jumping on your NAM train for the time being lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb. @high risk can verify this one way or another, but I don't think it's quite right to say the NAM has a cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Lol. DCA ~6hrs into precip Ugh that’s so ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well on various occasions the NAM had Leesburg getting 100% freezing rain tonight and last week was snowing on Leesburg off and on then rain then snow then sleet etc. Not saying it's wrong but saying it's on a hot streak is being generous at best. PSU is being jumpy and he will now ADHD the shit out of the NAM until it shifts or wins. That's our reality until Thursday now....great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 [90 seconds ago BobChill checked in to see if it's over yet] It's over [BobChill does not think it's over but he does like watching good melts from a distance. He will be back later] 5 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I don't doubt your analysis at all, but you do get jumpy just like the NAM does sometimes. You don't have to admit it...I hope the front end thump works out. Now reap your rewards with Ji jumping on your NAM train for the time being lol For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago. One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail. I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic. Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me? Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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