Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out.  I do think it’s a red flag.  

No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track.  It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in.  This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right  

[MN Transplant]

Lol.  DCA ~6hrs into precip

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb.

Yea hopefully some red tags will come say how Im crazy to be worried about the NAM at 72. But the NAM is really good at picking up on these warm layers.  But it is still outside optimal range. It can be wrong. I’m not throwing any towel. But I keep wanting to see some sign the NAM is going to cave and it’s locked in with that 700mb warmth. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No doubt but the NAM is so insanely far west with the track.  It’s hard for me to believe the EPS would puke on itself this badly on that idea this close in.  This setup probably goes to sleet or FZRA earlier than we think but I can’t imagine the track idea of the NAM is anywhere close to right  

Did you not pay any attention to what the Eps pulled last week in VA???

Your other points are valid. I’m not out on this. But the euro has been pretty bad lately. 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out.  I do think it’s a red flag.  

I don't doubt your analysis at all, but you do get jumpy just like the NAM does sometimes. You don't have to admit it...I hope the front end thump works out. Now reap your rewards with Ji jumping on your NAM train for the time being lol 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb.

@high risk can verify this one way or another, but I don't think it's quite right to say the NAM has a cold bias?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Lol.  DCA ~6hrs into precip

Ugh that’s so ugly. 

[aldie 22]

Well on various occasions the NAM had Leesburg getting 100% freezing rain tonight and last week was snowing on Leesburg off and on then rain then snow then sleet etc. Not saying it's wrong but saying it's on a hot streak is being generous at best. PSU is being jumpy and he will now ADHD the shit out of the NAM until it shifts or wins. That's our reality until Thursday now....great

[Bob Chill]

[90 seconds ago BobChill checked in to see if it's over yet]

 

 

It's over

 

 

 

[BobChill does not think it's over but he does like watching good melts from a distance. He will be back later]

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't doubt your analysis at all, but you do get jumpy just like the NAM does sometimes. You don't have to admit it...I hope the front end thump works out. Now reap your rewards with Ji jumping on your NAM train for the time being lol 

For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago.  One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail.  I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic.  Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me?   Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago.  One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail.  I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic.  Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me?   Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. 

Me make you?  the nam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. 

[WxMan1]

Preface -- this is NOT a criticism or meant to be banter...

When would we normally start a storm thread for Feb 18th? Would we wait until this upcoming (Tuesday) system is done? 

[psuhoffman]

Rgem still looks good.  3-6” before flip to sleet. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago.  One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail.  I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic.  Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me?   Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo. 

This was a rainstorm just a few days ago that resurrected itself into a maybe ok winter wx event. That warm layer is going to be a problem no matter what. I think most already accept that. My yard will sleet before yours. There's like no question about it. Seeing some snow being still quite possible on the front side on Monday is pretty good considering where we just came from. I know you know this and totally agree. But quick scan this morning seemed like somehow an expected warning level event is slipping away again. A bit jumpy, no?

[Warm Nose]

Just now, WxMan1 said:

Preface -- this is NOT a criticism or meant to be banter...

When would we normally start a storm thread for Feb 18th? Would we wait until this upcoming (Tuesday) system is done? 

Friday at this rate ...

[LP08]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Rgem still looks good.  3-6” before flip to sleet. 

Icon looks the same but no way of knowing with out all the layers.  Still is all frozen for the majority here.

[WVclimo]

Main slug of precip on the ICON aimed at Knoxville, TN at the same time (hr. 69) the 12k NAM has it pointed at Lousiville, KY.  That's a 250 mile difference.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Me make you?  the bam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. 

Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis.  But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have.  I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right.  It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! 

[snowfan]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Icon looks the same but no way of knowing with out all the layers.  Still is all frozen for the majority here.

Holds on at the surface w temps til mid morning Friday. Would be an icy mess on top of snow.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis.  But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have.  I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right.  It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! 

I'm not one who jumps on the snowiest model and ignores the rest, I'm just making an observation...but in the end it's just my observation. You do you man, you know your stuff and I've never disputed that. I will continue to read your analysis

[Bob Chill]

I looked at the 0z euro for 30 seconds and really didnt look at much from anything else so I'm just repeating something I may have said earlier (i talk too much to keep track). These events practically always lose ground close in. We're still fighting for how much cushion we have to lose. A bit early to jump on meso trends (imo only). Does today mark the beginning of the giveback period? Maybe. I'll wait until 0z before spending much time with details. We have yet to have any stability in guidance from mid to really short range in weeks. The only thing that wont change with this event is the fact that lots and lots of changes are on the way

[blizzardmeiser]

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Me make you?  the nam literally made you go off the rails.. have at it bro I'm clearly interpreting you wrong. 

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not one who jumps on the snowiest model and ignores the rest, I'm just making an observation...but in the end it's just my observation. You do you man, you now your stuff and I've never disputed that. I will continue to read your analysis

You are going to give him a meltdown 

[EHoffman]

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC.  I've seen this storm many times before.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC.  I've seen this storm many times before.

See ya next time then! 

It will probably be semi-significant icing somewhere in the region - that stripe remains to be seen. Low level cold air will be typically tough to scour out. I don't think this is a written off "quickly to rain" scenario for many areas. 

The warm layer is upstairs - not at the surface. 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis.  But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have.  I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right.  It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately! 

The NAM has won this battle a few times this winter.  Hard to imagine the NAM over doing the combined forecasting power of the EPS, GEFS and GEPS , but it has in the past.  Until it looks better Iam not interested in Thursday.  You are correct to be concerned. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC.  I've seen this storm many times before.

Hmmm, of course that outcome is possible, but I don't necessarily agree.  Starting out in the 20s is a decent recipe for some front end accumulations.  Of course, the models could all change and we could start out at 35 and fail miserably, but if the models hold the look they have now I'd expect at least some accumulations. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This was a rainstorm just a few days ago that resurrected itself into a maybe ok winter wx event. That warm layer is going to be a problem no matter what. I think most already accept that. My yard will sleet before yours. There's like no question about it. Seeing some snow being still quite possible on the front side on Monday is pretty good considering where we just came from. I know you know this and totally agree. But quick scan this morning seemed like somehow an expected warning level event is slipping away again. A bit jumpy, no?

This is personal perspective. I don’t disagree with what you said. But there is another POV. The globals all do show a 4-8” snow before the flip to ice from DC north. And yes some in here are believing that. The NAM shoes NO snow. That’s a pretty big difference. My point was if we want the big thump snow scenario to be right the NAM is problematic. 

Ive not said the NAM is definitely right. But it’s good at seeing high level warm air intrusion.  And that’s been my worry all along why this would be more a ice then snow event. But I said it could be wrong too and admitted it’s still early to take us as gospel but like I told Leesburg I think when I explain why the worst model could very well be right it annoys people whose first defense mechanism instinct is to dismiss and find ways to toss any model that threatens their dream.

Now about personal preference if someone has accepted this is just a mixy ice event with very little snow of significance then there is no problem. But I have absolutely no interest in a sleet bomb. None. Zero zip. Sleet and freezing rain do absolutely NOTHING for me. Actually I hate them worse then rain because they make me angry it’s not snowing.  Maybe that fact explains my stance here!

Just being honest about my admittedly crazy feelings. So for me the difference between the globals and the NAM is HUGE. The globals (with their 4-8” snow) is an event worth tracking. The NAM to me is a total fail since I only care about snow. 
 

 

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

See ya next time then! 

It will probably be semi-significant icing somewhere in the region - that stripe remains to be seen. Low level cold air will be typically tough to scour out. I don't think this is a written off "quickly to rain" scenario for many areas. 

The warm layer is upstairs - not at the surface. 

Yes hence why I said "for DC."  Since I live in DC.  And we do very poorly with these types of scenarios, almost always.  I don't doubt that somewhere north of DC will get a significant winter event from this.

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC.  I've seen this storm many times before.

It must be cool knowing exactly what is going to happen in the atmosphere above you 3 days from now while watching the rest of us struggle to figure it out!

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Main slug of precip on the ICON aimed at Knoxville, TN at the same time (hr. 69) the 12k NAM has it pointed at Lousiville, KY.  That's a 250 mile difference.  

Yea I pointed out in my NAM post how crazy divergent it is. It’s WAY off with the initial wave.