psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 See I’ll post a positive one of those too. I’m not actually a deb it’s not my fault those trends have all been bad this year until now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 Let's hope this one works out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Let's hope this one works out!! This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This ones just for fun 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good That was 3 pages back lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Let's hope this one works out!! I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good I need some suppression for it to be good here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! It’s been really good hinting at progression this winter. I agree. Probably because I’m a paranoid baby though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event. FXUS61 KPHI 151119 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 619 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Precipitation type: If we get precipitation on Wednesday night ahead of the mid level warm air advection, then precip will start as all snow. The elevated warm layer will develop from south to north through the day on Thursday, resulting in a change from snow to wintry mix and eventually to rain for some of our region. The elevated warm layer should erode from west to east Thursday night into Friday, which will mean our precipitation will change once again to a rain/snow mix depending on the temperature through the boundary layer. Part of this will be dependent on which of the surface lows becomes dominant, if it is the eastern low as the ECMWF is depicting, this change to rain/snow could occur earlier than what we are currently forecasting. Wintery impacts: Our snow and ice amount forecasts won`t go out far enough to cover this event until Tuesday afternoon, and the amounts are still very uncertain given the questions of precipitation type mentioned above. That being said, snow to liquid ratios will likely be quite low through this event (combination of periods of mixed precip and marginal temperature profiles even with all snow), so that should temper snow amounts. Ice, of course is the other concern, but the good news here is that for most of the region, the period of freezing rain should be limited before a change over to rain or all snow. However, any amount of ice can have impacts (as we saw yesterday). At this point, I expect some travel/driving impacts for most, if not all of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! Given it's recent performance I'm just a tad nervous if it doesn't jump on board... as crazy as that sounds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW 3km is a good shift SE of 12km With heights so that’s a positive Edit: well maybe slightly better. Gonna need a lot more though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW Concerning it is, but will pull the "NAM not in its wheelhouse yet" card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah. NAM starts as sleet at 9z in Winchester. It hasdonr so well this winter it is tough to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. Edited to add at hour 69. When the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow. are you out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Concerning it is, but will pull the "NAM not in its wheelhouse yet" card Problem is the NAM has the ability to see the mid level warm layers the globals don’t. The other problem is with the screaming SW jet it kinda makes sense! It’s why I was hesitant to get excited about this setup. So yea maybe it’s wrong but it’s worrying Imo. ETA: would still be a high impact ice event. I have absolutely 0 interest in that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. 700mb. Sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would love to know at what level the warm nose is on this run. Because I don't see it on the upper level plots. Edited to add at hour 69. When the precip starts. Around 700mb. It’s pretty high up which jives with the jet presentation. Warmest level could even be above 700mb. That’s why such a large sleet area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: are you out? I objectively analyzing the data. My desires don’t influence my analysis. Crazy how no one minded my analysis of the positive trends on all the globals. It’s not my fault the NAM looks like hot poop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, frd said: Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event. Yesterday they were focused more on rain falling over wet snow pack and flooding concerns, so it seems they are shifting their thinking some with the latest trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS Lol this lasted 4 minutes 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol this lasted 4 minutes Let me explain how the NAM wins. Post 1/20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol this lasted 4 minutes Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag. yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Going with the hot hand for Thursday. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3k NAM looks better. Still a bit NW of the globals at 60 but not nearly as bad as the 12k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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