WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 What’s the time for onset on the euro? On pivotal you only get 6 hr increments. I can see it’s sometime between 6 and 12z on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With the ICON, Euro, UKIE in one camp, I would think the gfs insistence on taking that low basically due north up just west of the apps is wrong. It seems to be moving towards that camp. This is one thing I have noticed on the Euro and Para- more of a focus on that vorticity max out ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just a couple of days ago it seems that I was reading that winter is over but looking at the temps on the 6z gfs it sure doesn’t seem that way. Also looks now that maybe at least a modified version of the Arctic air gonna be able to make some inroads on our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 An evolution like the Euro will still rain on the coastal plain given where the coastal low would develop, but the lowlands probably wont avoid that in this set up. Just give me some snow/sleet on the front end and I am good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What’s the time for onset on the euro? On pivotal you only get 6 hr increments. I can see it’s sometime between 6 and 12z on Thursday Thought it was a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It seems to be moving towards that camp. This is one thing I have noticed on the Euro and Para- more of a focus on that vorticity max out ahead. Are you referring to the vortices in both Carolinas and VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just a couple of days ago it seems that I was reading that winter is over but looking at the temps on the 6z gfs it sure doesn’t seem that way. Also looks now that maybe at least a modified version of the Arctic air gonna be able to make some inroads on our area. The pattern looks ok to me going forward, as long as the positive spike in the AO and NAO is temporary. Both the GEFS and EPS have the AO/NAO going negative the last few days of the month and into March. With a significantly -PNA being forecast, we need the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just a couple of days ago it seems that I was reading that winter is over but looking at the temps on the 6z gfs it sure doesn’t seem that way. Also looks now that maybe at least a modified version of the Arctic air gonna be able to make some inroads on our area. If anything, it does look like there’s an AN period next week before colder air returns heading into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Are you referring to the vortices in both Carolinas and VA? Yes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What’s the time for onset on the euro? On pivotal you only get 6 hr increments. I can see it’s sometime between 6 and 12z on Thursday About 11z in DC with the light stuff. Better stuff around 14z. Subtract an hour or two for areas out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I know that the GFS is not as good the euro wrt to the overall progression.. but it also gives us the most snow... All of this is the front end thump (before flipping): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, blueberryfaygo said: I know that the GFS is not as good the euro wrt to the overall progression.. but it also gives us the most snow... All of this is the front end thump (before flipping): Gotta be careful with those maps though...Im pretty sure theres a good period of sleet/Freezing rain in there, that the map is counting as snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Gotta be careful with those maps though...Im pretty sure theres a good period of sleet/Freezing rain in there, that the map is counting as snow The next six hours is the sleet and freezing rain (valid 00z).. it shows 2 more inches of snow but its probably sleet.. the above shows the panels ending 12z and 18z which stay snow for everyone north of Baltimore... Its a heathy thump... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 6Z EPS and control 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The pattern looks ok to me going forward, as long as the positive spike in the AO and NAO is temporary. Both the GEFS and EPS have the AO/NAO going negative the last few days of the month and into March. With a significantly -PNA being forecast, we need the blocking. A -pna -NAO is actually a really good pattern in March. A lot of our March snows featured that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A -pna -NAO is actually a really good pattern in March. A lot of our March snows featured that look. Agree,. Success largely hinges on getting some pretty robust blocking though to keep the SE ridge in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brett said: New member to the forums here but I read that the advertised -NAO is going to be eastern based. Does that matter? A few people said it is not good to be eastern based? Welcome! West based is better. East based can work but it’s less a sure thing. It’s also not static. It will shift around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brett said: New member to the forums here but I read that the advertised -NAO is going to be eastern based. Does that matter? A few people said it is not good to be eastern based? An east based nao is not the greatest snow look in dec, but with shorter wavelengths it becomes less of an issue in March. West is still ideal always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Agree,. Success largely hinges on getting some pretty robust blocking though to keep the SE ridge in check. Yes. The pac is finally hot garbage after this week. Luckily it waited until the part of winter when the pac matters the least. Still if it’s going to be that awful we will need the NAO to offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @leesburg 04 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 See I’ll post a positive one of those too. I’m not actually a deb it’s not my fault those trends have all been bad this year until now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 Let's hope this one works out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Let's hope this one works out!! This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This ones just for fun 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good That was 3 pages back lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Let's hope this one works out!! I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is a great trend. I want suppression talk to be sure we are good I need some suppression for it to be good here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon! It’s been really good hinting at progression this winter. I agree. Probably because I’m a paranoid baby though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event. FXUS61 KPHI 151119 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 619 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Precipitation type: If we get precipitation on Wednesday night ahead of the mid level warm air advection, then precip will start as all snow. The elevated warm layer will develop from south to north through the day on Thursday, resulting in a change from snow to wintry mix and eventually to rain for some of our region. The elevated warm layer should erode from west to east Thursday night into Friday, which will mean our precipitation will change once again to a rain/snow mix depending on the temperature through the boundary layer. Part of this will be dependent on which of the surface lows becomes dominant, if it is the eastern low as the ECMWF is depicting, this change to rain/snow could occur earlier than what we are currently forecasting. Wintery impacts: Our snow and ice amount forecasts won`t go out far enough to cover this event until Tuesday afternoon, and the amounts are still very uncertain given the questions of precipitation type mentioned above. That being said, snow to liquid ratios will likely be quite low through this event (combination of periods of mixed precip and marginal temperature profiles even with all snow), so that should temper snow amounts. Ice, of course is the other concern, but the good news here is that for most of the region, the period of freezing rain should be limited before a change over to rain or all snow. However, any amount of ice can have impacts (as we saw yesterday). At this point, I expect some travel/driving impacts for most, if not all of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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