Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’d say both heh. Heavier precip on lead edge. Stronger HP but Thicknesses a touch N since main wave is slightly stronger.Here was 1hr snow on last period. This was some heavy stuff Agreed. Piece of the TPV is once again stronger and lingers North of us a bit longer as the trend has been, but the sw is stronger and attempts to undo those positive changes. Midlevels look marginally better, except for 700mb temps which stick out like a sore thumb. Still a heavy thump of wintry precip for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Doesn't it tend to run warm too?I think it runs too cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Doesn't it tend to run warm too? We have a met on Philly forum that has done some stat verifications on it. It runs too cold. Overall it’s done a decent job this winter imo. Bottom line is you want it to be showing snow if there’s a chance. Just another piece of guidance though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just noticed WB added the GFS Para... 18z looks snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 18Z Control , tick North similar to EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 0z HRRR is warmer for the Tuesday event than 12z was. Very little ice to speak of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z Control , tick North similar to EPS. Can you post the eps please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What a disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z HRRR is warmer for the Tuesday event than 12z was. Very little ice to speak of. It’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 one weather station says 41 for me tuesday another one says 31 so yeah thats for me in PA so i would guess a tad warmer down for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm trying to get mulch delivered on Friday and need it to arrive when it is not going to precipitate for the next 24 hours. So, my forecast question is - do we think whatever happens on Thursday should be out of DC by Friday morning? (I'm also assuming here that I'm not going to have a foot of snow on the ground then. But this is a risk this winter has confirmed that I may feel comfortable taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z HRRR is warmer for the Tuesday event than 12z was. Very little ice to speak of. Good - need the rain to wash off the 3" depth of salt that they put down over the last two days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said: I'm trying to get mulch delivered on Friday and need it to arrive when it is not going to precipitate for the next 24 hours. So, my forecast question is - do we think whatever happens on Thursday should be out of DC by Friday morning? (I'm also assuming here that I'm not going to have a foot of snow on the ground then. But this is a risk this winter has confirmed that I may feel comfortable taking. Depends on the model right now. EURO would say you'd be dealing with ice on top of 4", PARA says it would've flipped to rain by that point so the ice on top of the 4" might be sorta out of the way (though roads still probably not great), original GFS says it would've been rained away, and ICON says you'll never leave your house again. In sum... too early to know, Friday morning being icy is well within the realm of possibility. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nam has ice for Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Not sure, verbatim surface temps stay just above freezing on 3K NAM tomorrow night east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam has ice for Loudoun yall actually paying attention to that shit? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 12K NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t. Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. Think that’s a pretty solid argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. Sold let’s go with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleetThe nam continues to destroy our dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet The nam continues to destroy our dreams Just yours. The rest of us are normal and reasonable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 12K NAM at 84Its 8 degrees warmer at surface than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM at 84 Its 8 degrees warmer at surface than other models 8 degrees might be a stretch. Haven’t seen anything showing DC is low 20s at 12z Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet The nam continues to destroy our dreams What dreams? 24 hours ago this thread was swimming in tears of winters end and folks were sh*tting all over the Thur event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 degrees might be a stretch. Haven’t seen anything showing DC is low 20s at 12z Thur. Here is warm gfs at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 the NAM and RGEM are.. just a tiny bit different at HR 84. Dunno, RGEM has been pretty good with figuring out the waves running along the boundary. Might've spent all it's energy on that and be out of gas though lol. But yeah it's a good bit colder at all levels and takes a more favorable track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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