WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z HRRR is warmer for the Tuesday event than 12z was. Very little ice to speak of. It’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 one weather station says 41 for me tuesday another one says 31 so yeah thats for me in PA so i would guess a tad warmer down for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm trying to get mulch delivered on Friday and need it to arrive when it is not going to precipitate for the next 24 hours. So, my forecast question is - do we think whatever happens on Thursday should be out of DC by Friday morning? (I'm also assuming here that I'm not going to have a foot of snow on the ground then. But this is a risk this winter has confirmed that I may feel comfortable taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z HRRR is warmer for the Tuesday event than 12z was. Very little ice to speak of. Good - need the rain to wash off the 3" depth of salt that they put down over the last two days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said: I'm trying to get mulch delivered on Friday and need it to arrive when it is not going to precipitate for the next 24 hours. So, my forecast question is - do we think whatever happens on Thursday should be out of DC by Friday morning? (I'm also assuming here that I'm not going to have a foot of snow on the ground then. But this is a risk this winter has confirmed that I may feel comfortable taking. Depends on the model right now. EURO would say you'd be dealing with ice on top of 4", PARA says it would've flipped to rain by that point so the ice on top of the 4" might be sorta out of the way (though roads still probably not great), original GFS says it would've been rained away, and ICON says you'll never leave your house again. In sum... too early to know, Friday morning being icy is well within the realm of possibility. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nam has ice for Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Not sure, verbatim surface temps stay just above freezing on 3K NAM tomorrow night east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam has ice for Loudoun yall actually paying attention to that shit? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 12K NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t. Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. Think that’s a pretty solid argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only argument would be it's NAM past prime time and other models don't have that warm layer. That's all I can come up with. Sold let’s go with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleetThe nam continues to destroy our dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet The nam continues to destroy our dreams Just yours. The rest of us are normal and reasonable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 12K NAM at 84Its 8 degrees warmer at surface than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM at 84 Its 8 degrees warmer at surface than other models 8 degrees might be a stretch. Haven’t seen anything showing DC is low 20s at 12z Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM not as cold as Euro or GFS. WE all start as heavy sleet The nam continues to destroy our dreams What dreams? 24 hours ago this thread was swimming in tears of winters end and folks were sh*tting all over the Thur event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 degrees might be a stretch. Haven’t seen anything showing DC is low 20s at 12z Thur. Here is warm gfs at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 the NAM and RGEM are.. just a tiny bit different at HR 84. Dunno, RGEM has been pretty good with figuring out the waves running along the boundary. Might've spent all it's energy on that and be out of gas though lol. But yeah it's a good bit colder at all levels and takes a more favorable track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 RGEM like Euro/GFS...we start as snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This week or bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Damn the ICON is cold at 90 with a ton a precip in the area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 RGEM got dat CAD all the way down to the SC/GA border. It can still eat it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yall better not even THINK about asking for a separate thread right now 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yall better not even THINK about asking for a separate thread right now Can i start a new thread for the Thursday storm?. This one already has 190 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That CAD signature..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 0Z ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Damn the ICON is cold at 90 with a ton a precip in the area. Looks like 3 to 5 inches snow then monster ice after... we take lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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