Steve25 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ruin said: Funny thing is my forecasts are saying 41 for friday morning showers. So not sure if all the models are saying below freezing and snow and ice why the forecast is that off. Probably just in catch up mode. Things just started looking more wintry after days of looking like a pure rain maker. I'm sure if this is a real trend and it continues into tomorrow, the weather app forecasts will start to resemble it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Awilson said: Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol their x 2 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? Exactly!! As I said if people aren’t here to ‘listen’ to good weather people and see what’s happening with the models then go watch ‘Netflix and chill’. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: their x 2 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Awilson said: Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol But that was because it was clogging up the thread and a lot of them were uneventful frames. I think you had the best of intentions but they share the eventful model frames in these threads and discuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Steve25 said: But that was because it was clogging up the thread and a lot of them were uneventful frames. I don't think you had the best of intentions but they share the eventful model frames in these threads and discuss. Yeah i know I’m just making light of the whole situation, but hey now i know, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion. Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy. I dunno. We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure. That’s very true but it only works to a degree. First of all the gfs is awful with surface CAD so whatever warming we get from the heavier rain is likely offset by the fact the gfs is probably running a couple degrees too warm if it’s right about everything else. Also if it’s mid 20s or colder some if not most of that will freeze. It was pouring rain a few times in 1994 and accumulated ice. But the key is it was 25 not 30 degrees. Even if not all of the rain there freezes that would be a major ice event as shown Imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This could be a bad one irt ice even if there's heavy rain. It's cold af leading in. Possibly cold enough to freeze the ground. Things like roads/bridges could potentially be in the 20's when the snow/sleet starts even in the close burbs. I've seen rain freeze on contact with air temp above freezing when the night before is cold enough. The good thing is the theoretical snow/sleet would cover everything first and make zr less of a hazard. But temps could be in the teens in some favored places wed night. There's like a better than 0% chance DCA gets below freezing before onset. Sounds like crazy talk but maybe... just maybe... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Would take some work to scour out this cold before the damage was done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 ^ mid 20s all the way down to Short Pump will definitely do some damage. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The GFS is damn cold on Friday night and Saturday morning as well. Like single digits cold. This after reaching a high of 34 out here on Friday. Anything that does fall is going to turn into a glacier. Would be a prolonged mess for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS...850s continue to improve compared to 12Z; question Not clear if we are hoping for a more suppressed track or is the low reforming off the coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Probably just in catch up mode. Things just started looking more wintry after days of looking like a pure rain maker. I'm sure if this is a real trend and it continues into tomorrow, the weather app forecasts will start to resemble it. Ah thanks but its funny cause I went frim seeing 38 on friday yesterday to 41 for friday today but that explains it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, Steve25 said: What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? I haven’t missed this lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Fun to watch the heights over the eastern U.S. get beaten down and the push of the TPV into the Dakotas. Wintry mix incoming for many of us (duh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS...850s continue to improve compared to 12Z; question Not clear if we are hoping for a more suppressed track or is the low reforming off the coast? That ship may have already sailed but there's still a way to win big if 850s push far enough south and confluence fights off some of the southerly flow with precip. You've heard us say thump to dryslot a lot around here but they've always found ways to not work out last few years. This one has the ingredients so far but much skepticism remains until much closer range. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 The storm on the ICON would be really bad. Just look at its precip totals and ground temps. Wow. Also, question for anyone who wants it ... would more cad, meaning a wider wedge if that makes any sense, be a setup where a low transfer to the coast becomes more likely. (Better boundary?) The thing that keeps catching my eye is that low track up the west side of the apps. I’d love to see that low to Chattanooga and then jump. I’m sure we all would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That ship may have already sailed but there's still a way to win big if 850s push far enough south and confluence fights off some of the southerly flow with precip. You've heard us say thump to dryslot a lot around here but they've always found ways to not work out last few years. This one has the ingredients so far but much skepticism remains until much closer range. The dryslot part always works out. The thump though... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I was envisioning the front side of the thurs storm and started thinking about how the onset would look. Even though the high is locked in too far north, it's still strong and there's still confluence. Theoretically, that wall of cold will push back against the warm moist flow and streaming precip from the south. It will be on the move but precip could be heavy at the beginning and snow if things work out. 700mb fronto panels on the 18z gfs agree 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm on the IVON would be really bad. Sounds french Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Obviously this is not happening exactly this way....but it illustrates that any of those waves in the long range is a threat to get suppressed so long as we have blocking this time of year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Sounds french Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Obviously this is not happening exactly this way....but it illustrates that any of those waves in the long range is a threat to get suppressed so long as we have blocking this time of year. Watch the low in that setup. Almost identical placement to ours on Thursday. That one in yours then jumps off the coast at Norfolk. Ours Thursday heads straight to Rochester. Not very typical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Watch the low in that setup. Almost identical placement to ours on Thursday. That one in yours then jumps off the coast at Norfolk. Ours Thursday heads straight to Rochester. Not very typical. The flow to our north is a little more blocked for that storm at 330. Not perfect, -NAO is east based and the 50/50 is a bit north but still there is some mechanism to suppress. This week we are relying on a dying tpv as it gets absorbed into the flow to temporarily knock down heights and create suppression. But once that feature abates there is nothing to stop it from cutting. Our only path to keeping the low to our south is of it gets suppressed enough early on to get it under us then it can lift north once to the coast. But once the influence of that tpv feature relaxes it likely will lift north pretty drastically. The trough axis is amplified pretty far west with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Aren't we in range for 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB EURO 18Z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just posting as an excuse to show WB now has the parallel GFS available. Woo hoo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Does the 18z Euro look better, the same or worse than the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Does the 18z Euro look better, the same or worse than the 12z I’d say both heh. Heavier precip on lead edge. Stronger HP but Thicknesses a touch N since main wave is slightly stronger.Here was 1hr snow on last period. This was some heavy stuff 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm on the ICON would be really bad. Just look at its precip totals and ground temps. Wow. Also, question for anyone who wants it ... would more cad, meaning a wider wedge if that makes any sense, be a setup where a low transfer to the coast becomes more likely. (Better boundary?) The thing that keeps catching my eye is that low track up the west side of the apps. I’d love to see that low to Chattanooga and then jump. I’m sure we all would. Doesn't it tend to run warm too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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