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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run,  I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....
ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png&key=a0b9c16c68fcf52a1ffb14343411e2c0ae3413624611d6280f8d342ec92f5f87
Bob 12z yesterday that low was near sw pa....now its well under us in sc. Eps had 2 distinct clusters

443309e7185020d828e93c7c95ae8150.jpg43c232b7277ad9083bceeb66aa8fe59d.jpg
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro d10 looks not so nina

Scand ridge is blocking up the n atl flow. I've seen far worse op runs recently. I'm like 100% done caring about d7+ on any models. Good or bad it doesnt matter. Good looks turn into doo doo and doo doo looks turn into good. But by the time the mid range hits, it looks nothing like either. 

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1 minute ago, Awilson said:

Muahahaha

Maybe try explaining exactly what you are trying to illustrate when you post these panels. They seem totally random and are useless without any context. I mean, most of what you are posting seems pretty useless regardless. Its like.. yaaaay look I got Pivotal weather!

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Just now, LP08 said:

EPS further souther and easter.  Not a terrible look.imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-3692800.png

NW folks look to be in pretty decent shape for significant frozen. Not sure how acceptable an outcome is in the cards for I-95 and esp east. Probably about as good as it gets right now given the synoptics and the time frame.

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Just now, CAPE said:

NW folks look to be in pretty decent shape for significant frozen. Not sure how acceptable an outcome is in the cards for I-95 and esp east. Probably about as good as it gets right now given the synoptics and the time frame.

For sure.  Hopefully the NW crew really cashes in for once.:hurrbear:

In all seriousness, trends are good for at least some frozen for all before whatever mess follows.

 

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Just now, LP08 said:

For sure.  Hopefully the NW crew really cashes in for once.:hurrbear:

In all seriousness, trends are good for at least some frozen for all before whatever mess follows.

 

LOL. Yeah those poor bastards.

I would be fine with a padder inch or so before a flip to rain. Not picky. This is a pretty unfavorable setup for the coastal plain.

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56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

NW folks look to be in pretty decent shape for significant frozen. Not sure how acceptable an outcome is in the cards for I-95 and esp east. Probably about as good as it gets right now given the synoptics and the time frame.

Need to get this bullseyeing Richmond by Tuesday at 12z so when the final jackpot is in Harrisburg I’m hopefully on the southern edge.

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