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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Love the euro/ukie runs. I mean yea, who doesnt want a clean coastal but only a fool would be picky at this point. Well, we're all fools anyway but even foolish fools shouldnt be too fooly now. Classic thump/mix/semi-moist dryslot (attn RR) is setting up inside of 5 days. The setup in front of the storm is really on 2-3 days out. I dont think the trend colder/wintrier is done yet.

We'll prob lose some ground in the short range but hard to be mad right now. One thing I say often is when midlevel cold is kinda wimpy with deep southerly flow, sleet will almost always take over sooner than modeled in nova/dc/md burbs. And that's fine with me. Anything but a gullywasher. I need one of these deals to work out to justify my return this year. The struggle is real. 

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21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

We’ve been duped with this before but maybe this one works out 

65% chance we're headed for Heartbreak Hotel.  That's why I want suppressed because the models will correct a little bit 

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1613692800-5D4ZyAHUVXY.png

1613757600-1YAn16c2pG8.png

SOLD

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Love the euro/ukie runs. I mean yea, who doesnt want a clean coastal but only a fool would be picky at this point. Well, we're all fools anyway but even foolish fools should be too fooly now. Classic thump/mix/semi-moist dryslot (attn RR) is setting up inside of 5 days. The setup in front of the storm is really on 2-3 days out. I dont think the trend colder/wintrier is done yet.

We'll prob lose some ground in the short range but hard to be mad right now. One thing I say often is when midlevel cold is kinda wimpy with deep southerly flow, sleet will almost always take over sooner than modeled in nova/dc/md burbs. And that's fine with me. Anything but a gullywasher. I need one of these deals to work out to justify my return this year. The struggle is real. 

There's an outside shot at mostly snow if this keeps moving SE.  At some point tho, it's gonna stop and hopefully just hold.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

There's an outside shot at mostly snow if this keeps moving SE.  At some point tho, it's gonna stop and hopefully just hold.

There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run,  I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....

ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png

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There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run,  I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....
ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png&key=a0b9c16c68fcf52a1ffb14343411e2c0ae3413624611d6280f8d342ec92f5f87
That did trend west quiet a bit from same time yesterday
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